Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, Picks and Prediction, Sunday, January 11, 2026
Miami (20-17) will be trying to avoid consecutive road losses when they visit Paycom Center on Sunday night to face Oklahoma City (32-7) at 7 PM. ET. Read on to find out which team picks up the win in this Heat vs. Thunder prediction. No air balls here—only slam dunks with our NBA Picks!
The Heat are coming off a 122-94 loss to Minnesota as 5.5-point underdogs. The Thunder are coming off a 117-116 win over Memphis as 5.5-point favorites.
Miami is 6-4 in its last 10 games against Oklahoma City.
**This preview was written before Saturday’s game was played.**
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Heat Trying To Increase Division Lead
The Heat followed up their win over New Orleans with a loss to the Timberwolves in their last game. They will be trying to avoid consecutive road losses as they try to increase their division lead when they play on Sunday.
Miami averages 120.1 points per game, which is third in the league. They’ve made 47 percent of their field goals and 37 percent of their three-pointers.
Norman Powell leads Miami with 24.3 points and 3.7 rebounds per game. Tyler Herro averages 22.3 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, while Bam Adebayo averages 16.9 points and 9.6 rebounds per game.
Miami is giving up 117.4 points per game, which is 21st in the league. Opponents have made 46 percent of their field goals and 34 percent of their three-pointers against them.
Injuries: Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Ankle) is questionable for this game.
Thunder Going For Third Consecutive Win
The Thunder bounced back from their two-game losing streak with wins over Utah and Memphis. They will try to keep the momentum going and pick up their third straight win when they play on Sunday.
Oklahoma City averages 121.3 points per game, which is second in the league. They’ve made 49 percent of their field goals and 36 percent of their three-pointers.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder with 31.9 points and 6.4 assists per game. Chet Holmgren averages 18.2 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, while Jalen Williams averages 17.6 points and 5.8 assists per game.
Oklahoma City is giving up 108.3 points per game, which leads the league. Opponents have made 44 percent of their field goals and 37 percent of their three-pointers against them.
Injuries: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Ankle), Chet Holmgren (Leg), and Carson Wallace (Toe) are questionable for this game.
Heat vs. Thunder Picks
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The Insiders Room | +1,793.00 |
| 2 |  Tony Karpinski | +1,731.00 |
| 3 |  Jesse Schule | +1,599.00 |
| 4 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,284.00 |
| 5 |  David Delano | +1,232.00 |
Point Spread Pick for Heat vs. Thunder
- Oklahoma City Thunder to cover. (4 Units)
The Thunder have the advantage in this game because they play well offensively at home, scoring more than 122 points per game, while making over 48 percent of their shots. They’ve also done a better job at the charity stripe, making over 82 percent of their free throws, while the Heat make less than 80 percent of theirs. They rebound the ball well and grabbed more than 11 offensive rebounds per game in their last three games, which will give them more scoring chances. They also turned the ball over less than 10 times per game in their last three games, so don’t expect them to give up many easy-scoring chances. The Heat aren’t playing well defensively and will be playing their second game on consecutive nights, and will be dealing with fatigue, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Heat vs. Thunder
- Over (4 Units)
The Heat average 120.1 points per game. They play at the fastest pace in the league, averaging 108.1 possessions per game, and they’re facing a team that gave up 121.7 points per game in their last three games. The Thunder average 121.3 points per game. They play at the 16th-fastest pace in the league, averaging 104.6 possessions per game, and they’re facing a team that gave up 117.7 points per game in their last three games. Expect these teams to score enough points to push the score over the total.
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