Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, Picks and Prediction, Tuesday December 23, 2025
Use Code WWWC Tuesday night in a Central Division matchup featuring two teams searching for answers. Milwaukee (11-18) enters on a three-game losing streak but has been competitive defensively despite missing Giannis Antetokounmpo. As for Indiana (6-23), they have dropped five straight and will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back after a road loss in Boston.
The Bucks won the lone head-to-head meeting earlier this season 117-115 at home, and another close game is expected according to the oddsmakers.
Milwaukee Bucks are looking to snap a losing streak
Milwaukee’s record has been a huge disappointment, but Doc Rivers' team hasn't given up. Even without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee ranks fifth in field-goal percentage and third in three-point shooting. Former Toledo Rocket, Ryan Rollins (17 ppg), has stepped into the biggest role of his professional career, while playing in all 29 games. Kevin Porter Jr. (20 ppg, 7.7 apg) has also made a huge impact in just seven games played so far.
The Bucks’ recent three-game losing streak hasn’t been entirely discouraging. They covered the spread in Minnesota on Sunday and held the Timberwolves to just 103 points, but their blowout loss in Brooklyn a little over a week ago stands out as the low point. Milwaukee has responded with improved effort since then.
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Rebounding remains a concern, as the Bucks rank near the bottom of the league, but Indiana’s own rebounding issues limit that disadvantage. Defensively, Milwaukee is league-average overall and far steadier than the Pacers, particularly when defending the perimeter.
Back-to-back for Pacers
After forcing Game 7 in the NBA Finals last season, things have taken a turn for the worse. The Pacers average just 110.2 points per game (29th) and rank 30th in field-goal percentage (43.0%) and 30th in three-point shooting (32.3%). Pascal Siakam leads the way at 23.8 points per game, but secondary scoring and the Pacers' health have been inconsistent, resulting in some ugly losses.
Although things are already bad, the Pacers will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back after Monday’s road loss in Boston. While they were competitive enough to cover as 11-point underdogs, the defensive effort has not held up over a full 48 minutes. Indiana allows 118.5 points per game (22nd) and ranks 30th in rebounds allowed at 49.5 per game, frequently giving opponents extra scoring opportunities.
Defending the perimeter has been one of Indiana’s few strengths, as they rank second in opponent three-point percentage (33.5%). However, that advantage hasn’t translated into wins because the Pacers struggle to turn stops into efficient offense. Narrow losses to New York (114-113) and Boston (103-95) show competitiveness, but the team's poor shooting and late-game execution haven't been good enough to get them over the top.
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers Predictions
Bucks vs Pacers ATS Pick:
- Milwaukee Bucks -1 (5 units)
Milwaukee is the preferred side despite Giannis being out. The Bucks still hold major advantages in shooting efficiency and overall form, while Indiana is playing on no rest and ranks near the bottom of the league offensively. Milwaukee has also been more competitive during its recent losing streak, including a road cover in Minnesota, and I will lay the number on the more rested team here.
Bucks vs Pacers Total Pick:
- Under 222 (4 units)
The under is the stronger angle given both teams’ recent trends and offensive performances. Indiana ranks 29th in scoring and last in shooting efficiency, while Milwaukee has leaned more on defense since losing Giannis. The Pacers are also on the second night of a back-to-back, which should impact their offensive execution and pace, which are already weak.
These two teams are a combined 22-36 to the over/under this season, and I like the under here.
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