Milwaukee Bucks vs Memphis Grizzlies Picks and Prediction for Friday December 26 2025
Use Code WWWC The Milwaukee Bucks head south on Friday night to take on the Memphis Grizzlies in a Western Conference matchup at FedExForum. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET, with regional coverage on FanDuel SN SE.
Before breaking this game down in detail, be sure to check out our other free NBA picks, where we evaluate every matchup on the slate using the same stat-driven and matchup-focused approach. This contest features two teams with similar overall struggles this season, but the underlying numbers — and the injury report — help clarify where the betting value may lie.
Game Information and Betting Context
- Date: Friday, December 26, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
- TV: FanDuel SN SE
- Matchup Predictor: Memphis 64.7% | Milwaukee 35.3%
Milwaukee Bucks: Road Woes and a Shortened Rotation
Milwaukee enters this matchup with a 12–18 overall record, including a troubling 4–10 mark on the road. While the Bucks are coming off a convincing 111–94 road win at Indiana, consistency has been a major issue throughout the season, particularly away from home.
Offensively, Milwaukee is averaging 113.0 points per game, but that number is frequently undermined by a defence allowing 116.2 points per contest. The Bucks have struggled to control games when they fall behind early, and their rebounding numbers (40.0 per game) sit well below league averages, which becomes a concern against a Memphis team that attacks the glass effectively.
Get Free $30 Credit for Premium Picks + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
The Bucks’ offensive production has been spread thin, with Ryan Rollins leading the team at 17.2 points per game while shooting 47.9% from the field. While Rollins has been efficient, Milwaukee lacks a consistent secondary scoring punch, especially in half-court situations.
Recent form reflects this uneven profile. In their last five games, Milwaukee is 2–3, with a blowout loss at Brooklyn (127–82) standing out as a reminder of how quickly games can get away from them when defensive intensity slips.
Key Injuries – Milwaukee Bucks
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (F): OUT (Dec 31)
- Taurean Prince (F): OUT (Jan 2)
- Gary Trent Jr. (G): GTD (Dec 26)
The absence of Antetokounmpo significantly alters Milwaukee’s ceiling on both ends of the floor. Without his interior presence, the Bucks lose rim pressure offensively and a key defensive anchor, making them more vulnerable in road environments.
Memphis Grizzlies: Home-Court Edge with Question Marks
Memphis comes into this game at 14–16 overall, with a 6–8 record at home. While that home mark is far from dominant, the Grizzlies have shown signs of improvement recently, going 6–4 over their last 10 games and scoring at a higher clip in several outings.
The Grizzlies are averaging 115.0 points per game, but like Milwaukee, they allow 116.2 points per contest, leading to frequent high-variance outcomes. Memphis relies heavily on ball movement, ranking higher in assists (29.2 per game) and rebounding (46.2 per game), which often keeps them competitive even when their shooting percentages fluctuate.
At the centre of the Memphis offence is Jaren Jackson Jr., who leads the team with 17.8 points per game while shooting 47.7% from the field. Jackson’s ability to stretch the floor and protect the rim remains critical, particularly against a Milwaukee team missing frontcourt depth.
Memphis’ recent results highlight both upside and volatility. They are coming off a 137–128 road win at Utah, but that followed back-to-back losses to Oklahoma City and Washington, where defensive lapses proved costly.
Key Injuries – Memphis Grizzlies
- Ja Morant (G): GTD (Dec 26)
- Vince Williams Jr. (G): GTD (Dec 26)
- Cedric Coward (F): GTD (Dec 26)
- Brandon Clarke (F): OUT (Jan 15)
- John Konchar (G): OUT (Jan 6)
Morant’s game-time designation looms large. His availability would significantly raise Memphis’ offensive ceiling, while his absence would shift more responsibility onto Jackson and secondary ball-handlers.
Matchup Breakdown: Where the Game Tilts
From a statistical standpoint, Memphis holds the edge in rebounding and ball movement, while Milwaukee’s efficiency hinges heavily on shot-making rather than sustained pressure in the paint. The Grizzlies’ ability to generate assists and second-chance opportunities plays directly into Milwaukee’s weaknesses on the glass.
Memphis has a better chance of winning this game and that is indicated on the matchup predictor off of ESPN. Combined with Milwaukee’s poor road record and the Bucks’ injury situation, the home side enters with a clearer path to controlling the tempo.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Memphis Grizzlies Pick
Against the Spread Pick
Memphis Grizzlies -2
Given Milwaukee’s struggles away from home and the absence of their top frontcourt presence, Memphis is positioned well to take advantage. Even with some uncertainty around Morant, the Grizzlies’ rebounding edge and home-court familiarity give them a strong chance to cover a short number.
Total Pick
Over 228.5
Both teams allow 116.2 points per game, and recent results show a tendency toward higher-scoring contests when defensive consistency wavers. Memphis has scored 137 and 121 in two of their last five games, while Milwaukee has allowed several triple-digit outputs on the road. If this game stays competitive into the fourth quarter, the over becomes the more attractive angle.
Final Prediction
This matchup sets up as a tighter contest than Milwaukee’s road record might suggest, but the combination of injuries and rebounding deficiencies makes the Bucks difficult to trust away from home. Memphis, while inconsistent, has the statistical tools to exploit those weaknesses and control key stretches of the game.
Final Score Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies 118, Milwaukee Bucks 112
That outcome supports Memphis against the spread and pushes the total past the posted number, making the Grizzlies and the over the preferred plays for Friday night.
Never Tried Winners and Whiners? Now Is Your Chance
- Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code DOLLAR
- If the pick loses, we credit your account with 3 Flex Picks
- If the pick wins, we still give you 1 Flex Pick on the house
- Win or lose, you walk away ahead. One dollar. No catch.
- Check out more NBA predictions
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
