Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Picks and Prediction for Thursday, December 25, 2025
Use Code WWWC Minnesota Timberwolves (20-10) vs. Denver Nuggets (21-8)
The 2025 NBA Christmas Day action closes down with the Northwest Division showdown at Ball Arena in Denver, CO, and we’ve prepared the Timberwolves vs. Nuggets prediction to get you covered.
Minnesota meets Denver for the third time this season, and the Nuggets aim for their third straight victory over the Timberwolves. Denver has beaten Minnesota twice in Minneapolis, 127-114 and 123-112.
Let’s take a closer look at this Timberwolves vs. Nuggets prediction, one of our NBA picks for Thursday’s five-game card. The Nuggets are 3.5-point home favorites with a total of 240.5 points, and the tip-off is set at 10:30 PM ET.
The Timberwolves eye their fourth straight W
The Minnesota Timberwolves (20-10; 12-18 ATS; 13-17 O/U) have been playing very well of late. They’ve only dropped two of their previous 12 games overall and are undefeated in three straight outings, beating the Oklahoma City Thunder 112-107, the Milwaukee Bucks 103-100, and the New York Knicks 114-104 in the process.
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The Timberwolves just finished their five-game homestand with a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS record. Last Tuesday, they beat the Knicks as 7.5-point favorites, and Anthony Edwards led the way with 38 points and four steals. Minnesota held New York to 41.4% shooting from the field and committed eight fewer turnovers than the Knicks (19-11).
Edwards tallies 28.7 points and 5.0 rebounds per game, while Julius Randle averages 22.6 points, 7.2 boards, and 5.5 assists. Jaden McDaniels (15.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG) missed the Knicks game due to a hip injury and is questionable for Thursday’s clash against the Nuggets.
The Timberwolves are fifth in the Western Conference. They score 117.6 points per 100 possessions (tied for 8th in the NBA) and allow 112.6 points in return (5th). Minnesota is sixth in the league in 3-point percentage (37.0%) and eighth in opposing 3-point percentage (34.9%).
The Nuggets are coming off a tough loss
The Denver Nuggets (21-8; 17-12 ATS; 19-10 O/U) have lost two of their previous nine contests. After stopping their six-game winning streak with a 115-101 home defeat against the Houston Rockets, the Nuggets beat the Utah Jazz 135-112 at home and lost at the Dallas Mavericks 131-130 on the road.
Last Tuesday, the Nuggets were 6.5-point favorites at American Airlines Center in Dallas. They made 57.5% of their field goals while going 20-for-41 from beyond the arc, but it wasn’t enough. The Mavericks were scoring at will, too, outscoring the Nuggets 66-50 in the paint.
Jamal Murray tortured Dallas for 31 points and 14 assists. He tallies 25.1 points and 6.9 assists per game, while Nikola Jokic averages 28.9 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 10.9 assists. Aaron Gordon (18.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG) and Christian Braun (11.4 PPG) are both injured, while Cameron Johnson (11.7 PPG) is questionable for Thursday’s game against Minnesota.
The Nuggets heavily lean on their offense, tallying 125.7 points per 100 possessions (1st in the NBA). They lead the league in 3-point percentage, too, making 40.6% of their shots from deep. However, the Nuggets allow 116.9 points per 100 possessions (21st) on 55.5% shooting from inside the arc (tied for 19th) and 35.0% from downtown (9th).
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Pick
Spread Pick for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets
- Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 (5 units)
The Nuggets might be quite shorthanded, as Cameron Johnson sustained a sprained right knee in the fourth quarter of the Mavericks game and didn’t return. Aaron Gordon hasn’t been ruled out, but he hasn’t played since November 21 due to a hamstring injury.
Without Gordon and Christian Braun, the Nuggets have done a great job on the offensive side of the ball, but their defense has struggled. Denver allows 117.8 points per 100 possessions in December. On the other side, Minnesota surrenders 109.6 points per 100 possessions in December.
I expect the Timberwolves to keep it close. They have enough weapons to hurt the Nuggets’ defense, and the T-Wolves allow just 11.8 triples per 100 possessions (4th in the NBA). Moreover, the Timberwolves must be highly motivated to get revenge for a couple of home losses against the Nuggets earlier in the season.
Over/Under Pick for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets
- Under 240.5 (5 units)
The Nuggets have scored at least 126 points in five of their previous six outings. As I said, Denver relies on its prolific offense, and the over has hit in 11 of the Nuggets’ last 14 games overall. On the other side, each of Minnesota’s last five contests has gone under the total.
The Timberwolves have to bring their best defense if they want to beat the Nuggets, who have surpassed a 120-point mark in their previous two meetings with Minnesota. Hereof, I will take the under. Neither side plays fast and tallies more than 100 possessions per 48 minutes.
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