Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs Picks, Prediction and Odds Game 5
Use Code WWWC With Oklahoma City already sitting in the clubhouse, the Thunder would love to see the other Western Conference semifinal go seven games. We think they might get their wish. Tonight's Game 5 in San Antonio is one of the more compelling spots on the playoff calendar, and bettors looking for sharp NBA picks have plenty to chew on as the Timberwolves try to grab a stranglehold on this series. Minnesota earned a 114-109 home win on Sunday to tie this series at two games apiece, and the way the betting market is treating this rematch tells us almost everything we need to know about where the value lies.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Minnesota +9.5
- Total Pick: Under 218.5
- Projected Final Score: San Antonio 110, Minnesota 105
Odds and Line Movement
The market has been a one-way street on this matchup, with public money pounding Minnesota on the spread and the under getting the bulk of the action on the total. Below is a breakdown of how the numbers opened, where they sit now, and how they've moved since release.
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 9½-105 | 216½-110 |
| San Antonio | -9½-115 | 216½-110 |
MIN at SAS Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 10½-115 | 218½-108 |
| San Antonio | -10½-105 | 218½-112 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Minnesota | San Antonio | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | 06:02:06PM | 10½-115 | -10½-105 | MIN 91%, MIN 59% |
| 05/11 | 06:01:56PM | |||
| 05/11 | 12:31:54PM | 10½-110 | -10½-110 | MIN 100%, MIN 100% |
| 05/11 | 04:57:22AM | 9½-110 | -9½-110 | MIN 100%, MIN 100% |
| 05/11 | 04:57:22AM | |||
| 05/11 | 04:57:02AM | 10½-118 | -10½-102 | MIN 100%, MIN 100% |
| 05/11 | 04:57:02AM | |||
| 05/11 | 04:56:52AM | 9½-102 | -9½-118 | MIN 100%, MIN 100% |
| 05/11 | 04:43:52AM | 9½-110 | -9½-110 | MIN 100%, MIN 100% |
| 05/10 | 10:23:53PM | 9½-105 | -9½-115 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | 06:02:06PM | 218½-108 | 218½-112 | UN 57%, UN 67% |
| 05/11 | 06:01:56PM | |||
| 05/11 | 12:38:43PM | 218½-110 | 218½-110 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 05/11 | 12:30:54PM | 217½-115 | 217½-105 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 05/11 | 12:13:34PM | 217½-112 | 217½-108 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 05/11 | 11:28:43AM | 217½-112 | 217½-108 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 05/11 | 11:28:33AM | 217½-112 | 217½-108 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 05/11 | 11:28:13AM | 217½-110 | 217½-110 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 05/10 | 10:31:32PM | 216½-115 | 216½-105 | |
| 05/10 | 10:23:53PM | 216½-110 | 216½-110 |
Timberwolves vs Spurs Key Matchups and Handicap
Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves with 36 points in Sunday's Game 4 win, but the headline coming out of that game was the ejection of Victor Wembanyama after he threw a vicious elbow at Naz Reid following a brief scrum. Wembanyama finished with four points and four rebounds in 12 minutes before hitting the locker room. That was a somewhat-shocking result for a player that has rarely seen a technical foul during his three-year career, let alone an ejection. Wembanyama will not face a suspension and will be on the court tonight, but how he responds emotionally to that moment is one of the biggest swing factors in this game.
Perhaps one of the most overlooked angles heading into this series was Rudy Gobert's familiarity with Wembanyama. If there is anyone in the league that knows what makes Wembanyama tick and how to prepare for him, it's the Timberwolves' center who's known him since he was 12 years old. Gobert and Wembanyama have been friends, competitors, training partners and teammates on the French National Team for the last decade. That kind of history is the type of edge that doesn't show up in a box score but absolutely shows up over a seven-game series.
Get Free $30 Credit for Premium Picks + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
The handicap here also has to account for backcourt health. Starting guard De'Aaron Fox is dealing with an ankle injury that he suffered in the third quarter of Game 4 and is listed as questionable. Fox scored 24 points in Monday's loss, but he went 1-for-7 from three-point range and was hobbling in the final minutes. Even if Fox suits up, a compromised version of him changes the math on the spread significantly.
MIN and SAS Betting Trends
In the betting market, this Timberwolves team woefully underperformed during the regular season, going 37-45 against the spread. They clearly have a different gear because the team that dispatched the Nuggets and is tied with San Antonio looks a lot different than the one that was shuffling its feet through the second half of the regular season. We've backed Minnesota in almost every game of this series, and we're not jumping off the train yet. The market agrees, with 91% of dollars and 59% of tickets landing on the Timberwolves' side of the spread at current numbers.
MIN and SAS Key Injuries and Notes
The biggest injury watch belongs to De'Aaron Fox, who is officially questionable after suffering an ankle injury in the third quarter of Game 4. His mobility was clearly limited in the closing minutes of Sunday's loss, and a 1-for-7 night from beyond the arc reflects what a compromised version of him brings to the floor. On the San Antonio side, Wembanyama avoided supplemental discipline for his ejection and is cleared to play in Game 5. There is no suspension coming down from the league, but the emotional component of his return is worth tracking.
Timberwolves vs Spurs ATS and Total Picks
- ATS Pick: Minnesota +9.5
- Total Pick: Under 218.5
The spread has climbed from an opener of 9.5 to a current 10.5, and we'll happily grab Minnesota at the cheaper number wherever it's still available. The under is the other side of the same coin. If Fox is limited and Wembanyama plays under control after the ejection, the pace and shot-creation drop, and that 218.5 becomes a tough number for both teams to chase together.
Final Score Prediction
- San Antonio 110, Minnesota 105
San Antonio takes the game at home but does not cover the inflated number, and the combined points come in just south of the total.
How to Bet Timberwolves vs Spurs
If you're looking to get down on Game 5, the play is to shop hard for Minnesota +10 or better before tip-off, because that hook on either side of 10 is meaningful in a playoff game with this kind of late-game variance. For the total, the under is the side that has been getting hammered all day, so locking it in earlier rather than later is the smarter approach if the public continues to push the number down. For bettors in states without legal sportsbooks or anyone who prefers to play with sweeps coins, social sportsbooks are a strong option for getting action on this matchup. New users can also grab the fliff promo code to boost their initial balance before placing tonight's spread and total tickets.
Never Tried Winners and Whiners? Now Is Your Chance
- Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code DOLLAR
- If the pick loses, we credit your account with 3 Flex Picks
- If the pick wins, we still give you 1 Flex Pick on the house
- Win or lose, you walk away ahead. One dollar. No catch.
- Check out more NBA predictions
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
