Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday January 17 2026
The Minnesota Timberwolves (27-14( head to San Antonio (28-13) on Saturday night to take on the Spurs at Frost Bank Center in a Western Conference matchup.
Minnesota has dominated this series recently, winning five straight head-to-head meetings, including a 104–103 victory in Minnesota last Sunday. However, the circumstances are much different this time around, as the Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards, and San Antonio is set up in a prime revenge spot.
The Spurs enter this game after a convincing 119–101 home win over Milwaukee on Thursday. Minnesota, meanwhile, played at Houston on Friday night, and that game was still in progress at the time of this article.
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Edwards banged up
Minnesota has had San Antonio’s number in recent meetings, but this version of the Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards, who leads the team with 28.9 points per game. While the Timberwolves rank third in the NBA in scoring at 120.3 points per game. They are also fourth in both field-goal percentage (48.6%) and three-point percentage (37.4%). Although the offensive production is extremely impressive, it is also built around Edwards’ ability. Without him, the offense becomes more dependent on ball movement and role players consistently knocking down shots.
Defensively, the Timberwolves remain solid, allowing 114.6 points per game (11th) and ranking sixth in opponent field-goal percentage (46.0%). Rudy Gobert continues to anchor the interior, helping Minnesota limit efficient looks inside while holding opponents to 35.3% from three (11th). Still, defense alone may not be enough here, as fatigue is a real concern with Minnesota playing on the road on the second night of a back-to-back after a game in Houston.
Spurs are a legit contender
San Antonio has quietly put together an excellent season, sitting at 28–13 overall and leading the Southwest Division. They enter this game with momentum after a convincing 119–101 home win over Milwaukee on Thursday.
The Spurs rank ninth in the NBA in scoring at 117.6 points per game, while shooting a solid 47.2% from the field. They dominate the glass, ranking second in rebounds per game (46.8). Defensively, San Antonio has been just as reliable, allowing only 112.5 points per game (7th) and holding opponents to 45.9% shooting, which ranks fifth league-wide.
Victor Wembanyama continues to anchor both ends of the floor, averaging 23.9 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks per game, while Stephon Castle facilitates the offense with 6.9 assists per contest. 
Minnesota vs San Antonio Prediction
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ben Burns | +1,203.00 |
| 2 |  Joseph D'Amico | +791.00 |
| 3 |  Bryan Power | +507.00 |
| 4 |  MIT Simulator | +449.00 |
| 5 |  Joe Duffy | +374.00 |
Timberwolves vs Spurs ATS Pick:
- Spurs -7.5 (4 units)
Despite Minnesota’s five-game head-to-head winning streak, this is a drastically different spot. San Antonio is healthier, playing with confidence, and catching a Timberwolves team missing its best player while dealing with travel and scheduling concerns. The Spurs’ rebounding edge, defensive consistency, and interior dominance should allow them to control this game from start to finish.
With revenge motivation, home-court advantage, and Minnesota short-handed, backing San Antonio is the play.
Timberwolves vs Spurs Total Pick
- Under 229.5 (4 units)
This matchup sets up well for a lower-scoring game, especially with Minnesota missing Anthony Edwards. Without their primary shot creator, the Timberwolves’ offense becomes far more methodical and easier to defend in the half court.
San Antonio has been solid defensively all season, ranking seventh in points allowed and doing its best work at home by controlling the glass and limiting second-chance looks.
With Minnesota dealing with travel, uncertainty from Friday’s game in Houston, and a short-handed rotation, expect longer possessions and fewer clean scoring opportunities, keeping this total under the number.
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