New Orleans Pelicans vs Boston Celtics Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday April 10 2026
Use Code WWWC Friday night's matchup between the New Orleans Pelicans and Boston Celtics at TD Garden is one of the most one-sided situational spots on the final night of the regular season, and it delivers one of the sharper closing-night NBA picks on the board — a game where Boston is chasing the 2-seed with real postseason stakes, New Orleans is rolling into town decimated by absences, and the Celtics own a commanding 8-1 straight-up record in the last nine meetings between these franchises. The number is large, but the setup behind it is legitimate.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Celtics -16.5
- Total Pick: Under 223.5
- Projected Final Score: Boston 122, New Orleans 100
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread (Open) | Total (Open) |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | +16½ -110 | Over 224½ -110 |
| Boston Celtics | -16½ -110 | Under 224½ -110 |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread (Current) | Total (Current) |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | +16½ -105 | Over 223½ -115 |
| Boston Celtics | -16½ -115 | Under 223½ -105 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | New Orleans | Boston | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | 11:35:54 PM | +16½ -105 | -16½ -115 | — |
| 04/09 | 11:19:42 PM | +16½ -110 | -16½ -110 | — |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | 07:09:09 AM | 223½ -115 | 223½ -105 | — |
| 04/10 | 03:15:14 AM | 224½ -110 | 224½ -110 | — |
| 04/09 | 11:35:54 PM | 224½ -105 | 224½ -115 | — |
| 04/09 | 11:19:42 PM | 224½ -110 | 224½ -110 | — |
Pelicans vs Celtics Key Matchups and Handicap
Celtics Have Everything to Play For on the Final Night
Boston enters Friday's game needing just one win across its final two regular-season contests to clinch the 2-seed in the Eastern Conference. That seeding carries genuine postseason value — a better first-round matchup and home-court advantage deeper into the bracket — and it gives the Celtics a concrete objective that translates directly into effort and focus on both ends of the floor. This is not a game where Boston will be coasting or resting starters with nothing on the line. The coaching staff and roster both understand what the 2-seed means, and Friday's opponent is the most favorable possible matchup for locking it in.
The back-to-back aspect introduces one meaningful variable. Boston fell to the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Thursday, and Jaylen Brown did not play in that game. If Brown remains out Friday, the Celtics are without one of their two primary offensive engines against a Pelicans team that cannot generate consistent defensive resistance at full strength — let alone with the depth losses New Orleans is carrying into this game. Even a shorthanded Boston roster with motivation to lock up seeding represents a dramatically superior unit to what New Orleans is putting on the floor Friday night.
Pelicans Enter With a Skeleton Crew
The New Orleans injury situation for Friday is the most important contextual factor in this entire game. Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray, and Yves Missi have all been ruled out. Herbert Jones and Saddiq Bey are both listed as questionable. That combination of confirmed absences and uncertain availability leaves the Pelicans with a lineup that barely resembles the roster that was competitive in February and March, and forces New Orleans to rely on depth players against a Boston club that has been among the league's best defensive units all season.
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New Orleans snapped an eight-game losing streak Tuesday with a 156-137 home win over Utah, but that result requires significant context. The Jazz game was a high-scoring outlier against one of the league's worst defensive units, and the under had gone 10-3 in the Pelicans' previous 13 games before that game. Tuesday's offensive explosion is not a reliable indicator of what New Orleans will produce against Boston's defense Friday — it is more accurately read as a favorable scheduling spot that briefly interrupted a significant losing run. The Pelicans have regressed to their early-season form, and one win over Utah does not change that trajectory.
New Orleans vs Boston
The Celtics' series dominance over New Orleans is one of the more consistent cross-conference trends in recent NBA history. An 8-1 straight-up record and 6-3 ATS mark over the last nine meetings reflects not just talent but stylistic advantages that have played out consistently regardless of roster variation. The most recent meeting this season — a 122-90 road win at New Orleans in the first week of the season — produced a 32-point final margin that remains the single most relevant data point for projecting how badly this game could swing. If Brown returns Friday and Boston is at anywhere near full strength, a repeat of that kind of margin is well within the range of outcomes.
Even if Brown sits again, the Celtics have enough frontcourt depth and perimeter shooting to exploit the Pelicans' absences at every position. New Orleans is missing its best interior presence in Williamson, its best perimeter creator in Murray, and key rotation contributors in Murphy, Missi, and potentially Jones and Bey. Against Boston's switching defense and pace manipulation, that is a roster that will struggle to generate quality shots consistently, and the resulting offensive inefficiency will compound throughout a full game.
The under has been the dominant trend in New Orleans' games before Tuesday's outlier — 10-3 in the 13 games prior. Against a Boston defense that has been among the league's most disciplined units all season and a Pelicans offense missing its primary creation options, the under at 223.5 aligns with the broader pattern of how Pelicans games have played out and how Boston's defense shapes game totals. The total has dropped a point from 224.5 to 223.5 at current, with the pricing shifting toward the under side at the most recent snapshot. That modest movement confirms the under as the market's preferred side even against a total that has already reflected the Pelicans' depleted roster in its construction.
Betting Trends — NOP and BOS
- Boston is 8-1 straight-up and 6-3 against the spread over the last nine meetings between the Celtics and Pelicans.
- The Celtics earned a 122-90 road win over New Orleans earlier this season — a 32-point margin that remains the most recent head-to-head result.
- The under had gone 10-3 in New Orleans' previous 13 games before Tuesday's 156-137 win over Utah, which should be treated as an outlier against a Jazz team that cannot defend.
- New Orleans has lost eight of its last nine games, with Tuesday's Utah win the lone exception, reflecting a team that has returned to its early-season struggles after a promising mid-season stretch.
- The total dropped one point from 224.5 at open to 223.5 at current, with the under side priced more attractively at the latest snapshot (-105 vs. -115 on the over).
Key Injuries and Notes — NOP and BOS
- New Orleans Pelicans: Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray, and Yves Missi are all ruled out. Herbert Jones and Saddiq Bey are both listed as questionable. These absences leave New Orleans without its best interior scorer, its primary ball-handler and perimeter creator, and multiple rotation contributors. The resulting depth situation forces unproven and inexperienced players into meaningful minutes against one of the Eastern Conference's best rosters.
- Boston Celtics: Jaylen Brown did not play in Thursday's road loss at New York on the first leg of the back-to-back. His status for Friday is the most important variable for Boston entering this game — if he returns, the Celtics have their full offensive arsenal available and the spread becomes even more one-sided. If he sits again, Boston still has enough firepower to cover against a depleted Pelicans roster, but the margin of comfort narrows slightly. Monitor his designation through the afternoon before locking in final positioning.
Pelicans vs Celtics ATS and Total Picks
- Spread: Take the Celtics -16.5. The combination of Boston's 8-1 series record, New Orleans entering with four confirmed absences including Williamson and Murray, and the Celtics needing a win to clinch the 2-seed creates the strongest situational alignment available in Friday's NBA slate. This is a large number, but every contextual factor supports Boston covering it — including the most recent head-to-head result where the Celtics won by 32 on the road. Take the Celtics.
- Total Pick: Take the Under 223.5. The under had gone 10-3 in New Orleans' previous 13 games before Tuesday's high-scoring outlier against Utah. Against Boston's defense with a depleted Pelicans roster missing its primary offensive contributors, the conditions for a game that stays well below 224 are clearly in place. The total has dropped a point from open and the under side is priced at -105 at the latest snapshot — take the better-value side of a total that the market has already moved in the right direction.
Final Score Prediction
Boston 122, New Orleans 100. The Celtics lock up the 2-seed with a dominant home performance against a Pelicans team that cannot generate consistent offense without Williamson, Murray, or Murphy. New Orleans competes in the first quarter before Boston's defensive structure and depth advantages pull the game away in the second half. The final stays under 223.5 and the Celtics cover -16.5 to extend their series dominance over the Pelicans to nine of the last ten meetings.
How to Bet Pelicans vs. Celtics
The Celtics -16.5 and under 223.5 are the two plays to prioritize before Friday's tip-off at TD Garden. The spread has held steady at 16.5 since opening, and the total has dropped a point with the under now priced at the better side of the market at -105. Jaylen Brown's status is the one variable worth monitoring before tip-off — his return would solidify the Boston cover further, but even without him the Pelicans' depleted roster makes New Orleans a difficult cover in any scenario at this number.
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Check Brown's availability through the afternoon and lock in both plays before tip-off. The under at -105 is the better-priced side of a total that has already moved in the right direction, and Boston at -16.5 reflects a game where every contextual factor — seeding motivation, series history, and New Orleans' roster decimation — points the same direction. Let the Celtics close out the regular season the way they have handled this matchup for the last nine meetings: convincingly.
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