New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Prediction for Friday, November 21, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Dallas Mavericks (4-12) are hosting the New Orleans Pelicans (2-13) tonight as NBA Cup play continues. The Pelicans picked up one of their only wins this season when they faced the Mavericks on November 5, winning 109-99 as an eight and a half point road underdog.
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Zion is expected to play
The New Orleans Pelicans have been a dumpster fire so far, and injuries are a huge part of it. Dejounte Murray is out until at least New Year’s with an Achilles injury, and Jordan Poole has been dealing with quadricep issues. Zion Williamson has also only played in six games, continuing to be unreliable, but he is expected to play tonight. He returned on Wednesday in a 125-18 loss to the Denver Nuggets and in 29 minutes had 14 points, six rebounds, five assists, a block, and a steal.
The Pelicans have lost so many games that turning the season around already feels like a long shot. New Orleans has not had much to be happy about on either end of the floor. On offense, they are 30th in the NBA, averaging under 109 points per game, and 25th on defense, giving up 122.1 ppg. They are also 28th in opponent field goal percentage and 18th in three-point percentage allowed, which is actually one of the few things they do close to average.
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Offensively, the Pelicans are just 27th in field goal percentage, 23rd in three-point percentage, and 24th from the free-throw line. Williamson leads the team in points, assists, and rebounds, but he has missed more than half of their games.
Growing pains for Mavs
It feels like more than two seasons ago when the Mavericks won the Western Conference, but it wasn’t. Things have changed fast. Nico Harrison was fired after the fan base finally hit its breaking point. Luka Dončić is now flourishing in Los Angeles. Anthony Davis is injured again. Kyrie Irving isn’t expected back until after the New Year. Then there’s Klay Thompson. Whether it’s age, his relationship with Meg The Stallion, being disinterested in basketball, or a mix of everything, he just doesn’t have it right now. He is averaging under 10 points per game and shooting only 31.3% from three.
All of this has dumped a lot of pressure on rookie Cooper Flagg, who leads Dallas with 15.5 points per game and grabs 6.3 rebounds. PJ Washington is averaging 14.4 points and leads the team with 7.7 rebounds. D’Angelo Russell is averaging 12.6 points. This is not the big three the Mavericks pictured when the season started.
On offense, the Mavericks are bottom four in the NBA in points per game at 110.3 and also bottom four in field goal percentage, three-point percentage, and free throw percentage. Defensively, Dallas is 17th, allowing 117 points per game, but they are top ten in field goal percentage allowed and three-point percentage allowed.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks Picks
Pelicans vs Mavs ATS Pick:
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New Orleans Pelicans +4 (4 units)
As tough as it is to back the Pelicans, I think the four points Dallas is laying are too many. The Pelicans already beat the Mavericks once this season, and that’s a big deal for a team that has only won twice all year. With Cooper Flagg and PJ Washington having to carry the load, I don’t trust Dallas in this spot. This also sets up as a rare game where we see a motivated Zion Williamson. Even though the Pelicans are on a losing streak, they have covered in their last two games against Denver and Oklahoma City. Before that, they had losses to the Warriors and Lakers, so they’ve been up against tough competition. Facing the Mavericks here, I like New Orleans to get the cover.
Pelicans vs Mavs ATS Total Pick:
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Under 234 (5 units)
I think this total is way too high. These teams combined for just 200 points the last time they played, and I don’t think they get close to this number tonight. Dallas is third in pace but that’s about all there is to like for an over. The Pelicans are just 20th in pace and 25th in offensive efficiency, and Dallas is dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Even though the Mavericks play fast and the Pelicans' defense is poor, I don’t think that’s enough to push this over with how weak the Dallas offense has been. I’m taking the under.
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