New Orleans Pelicans vs Indiana Pacers Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday January 16 2026
Friday evening on the NBA hardwood, and we have a New Orleans Pelicans vs Indiana Pacers prediction locked and loaded for you. The Pelicans are off a 116-113 home win over the Nets, but they are still a miserable 10-33 on the year. The Pacers are off a 115-101 home loss to the Raptors, which puts them at 9-32 on the year. These teams met back in December and New Orleans won that game at home by a score of 128-109. Read on to see our Pelicans vs. Pacers prediction.
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Murphy III Leads Pelicans Past The Nets
New Orleans finally caught a break on Wednesday, edging Brooklyn 116–113 in a game that swung back and forth all night and required Trey Murphy III to play the closer. Murphy poured in 34 points, Zion Williamson added 25, and Saddiq Bey delivered the sequence of the night—hitting a tying three as the shot clock expired, grabbing a long rebound for a put‑back dunk, and sealing it with two free throws in the final seconds. The Pelicans dominated the offensive glass behind Yves Missi’s 12 points and 12 rebounds (nine offensive), piling up 33 second‑chance points, which is how they survived another shaky defensive fourth quarter. Even with the win, New Orleans sits at 10–33, and their season‑long profile reflects the struggle: 114.9 points per game, 46.4% shooting, and a bottom‑five defense allowing 122.2 points and 48.6% from the field.
Heading into Indiana, the formula is pretty clear—New Orleans has to lean into its strengths and hope its defense can hold up long enough to give them a chance. The Pacers play fast and push tempo relentlessly, which has been a recurring problem for a Pelicans team that often struggles to get matched up in transition. They’ll need another big night on the glass, another assertive scoring game from Zion, and continued shot‑making from Murphy to keep pace. The biggest key is avoiding the long defensive lapses that have buried them in most games this season; Indiana won’t let them back in if they fall behind early. If New Orleans can control tempo, win the effort categories, and keep the ball out of scramble situations, they can at least make this one competitive — but they’ll need to be sharper than they’ve been in most of their 10 wins.
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Back To Losing For The Pacers
Indiana comes into Friday trying to regroup after a 115–101 home loss to Toronto, a game where they hung around for three quarters before getting outscored 34–22 in the fourth. The Pacers actually led 79–78 late in the third, but once the Raptors tightened their defense, Indiana’s offense stalled out—finishing the night at 38% from the field and just 12-for-42 from three. Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Siakam carried most of the scoring load, but the Pacers never found a rhythm in the halfcourt and couldn’t generate enough stops to keep it close. The loss snapped a brief three‑game win streak and dropped them to 9–32, and their season profile reflects the struggle: bottom‑tier shooting (110.6 ppg, 44.2% FG, 34.3% from three) and a defense that gives up 118.3 points per game, though they do rank top‑three in opponent three‑point percentage and opponent free‑throw percentage.
Against New Orleans, the keys are pretty straightforward: Indiana has to control tempo, avoid the long scoring droughts that buried them against Toronto, and keep the Pelicans off the offensive glass. New Orleans just piled up 33 second‑chance points against Brooklyn, and the Pacers rank 28th in defensive rebounding, which is a dangerous combination. Offensively, they need Siakam and Nembhard to stay aggressive, but they also need cleaner ball movement to avoid getting stuck in late‑clock situations. The Pelicans’ defense is vulnerable, but Indiana can’t afford to chase this game from behind—if they let Zion and Trey Murphy dictate pace, it becomes an uphill climb. If the Pacers defend the arc the way they’ve done all season, limit the second‑chance damage, and get something resembling balanced scoring, they can make this competitive. Otherwise, it risks looking a lot like Wednesday’s fourth quarter. 
New Orleans Pelicans vs Indiana Pacers Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ben Burns | +1,203.00 |
| 2 |  Kevin V. | +1,120.00 |
| 3 |  Patty Reyes | +818.00 |
| 4 |  Joseph D'Amico | +791.00 |
| 5 |  Bryan Power | +507.00 |
Pelicans vs. Pacers Spread Pick
- New Orleans +2.5 (5 Units)
Pelicans +2.5 makes plenty of sense because this matchup plays directly into the few things New Orleans actually does well. Indiana’s biggest weakness is defensive rebounding, and the Pelicans just put up 33 second‑chance points against Brooklyn by relentlessly crashing the glass. That’s the exact kind of pressure that gives the Pacers problems, especially late in games when their halfcourt offense tends to bog down. New Orleans also has the two best individual scorers in the matchup right now — Zion and Trey Murphy — and Indiana simply doesn’t have a consistent go‑to option to counter that. The Pacers’ shooting numbers are bottom‑tier across the board, and when they hit those inevitable droughts, they don’t have the defensive backbone to survive them. If the Pelicans bring the same energy on the boards and avoid the long defensive lapses that have burned them all season, they’re absolutely live to win this outright, so grabbing the points feels justified.
Pelicans vs. Pacers Over/Under Pick
- Under 238 (4 Units)
The Under 238 fits this matchup really well because neither team is built to sustain long stretches of efficient offense, and both have tendencies that naturally drag games into choppier, lower‑scoring territory. Indiana plays fast but shoots 30th in field‑goal percentage, so a lot of their possessions end in empty trips, long rebounds, or late‑clock heaves. New Orleans, meanwhile, scores in bursts but goes through long droughts of its own, and their best offensive work lately has come from offensive rebounding rather than clean halfcourt execution. That kind of scoring profile creates volume, not efficiency. Add in that both teams struggle to shoot the three consistently, and you get a game where the pace might look high on paper but the scoring doesn’t follow. Unless this turns into a whistle‑heavy free‑throw parade, the Under has a very real path — especially if the Pelicans’ defense shows even a little resistance and Indiana’s shooting stays where it’s been all season.
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