New Orleans Pelicans vs. Miami Heat Picks and Prediction for Sunday, January 4, 2026
New Orleans Pelicans (8-28) vs. Miami Heat (19-15)
The 2025-26 NBA season goes on Sunday, January 4, with the New Orleans Pelicans taking on the Miami Heat in the cross-conference battle at Kaseya Center in Miami, FL, and we’ve got you covered with our Pelicans vs. Heat prediction.
New Orleans meets Miami for the first time this season, and the Heat aim for their third straight victory over the Pelicans. The last time they met, Miami humiliated New Orleans 153-104.
Let’s take a closer look at this Pelicans vs. Heat prediction, one of our NBA picks for Sunday’s slate. The tip-off at Kaseya Center is set at 6:00 PM ET. Saturday’s games have been excluded from this preview, and the Heat hosted the Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday afternoon.
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The Pelicans are on a six-game slide
The New Orleans Pelicans had a five-game winning streak in December. Since then, the lowly Pelicans have gone 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS, showing why they are considered one of the worst teams in the league.
The Pelicans score 113.8 points per 100 possessions (tied for 23rd in the NBA). They hit just 10.5 3-pointers per 100 possessions (tied for 28th) on a 33.9 percentage clip (tied for 26th). The Pelicans’ defense has struggled, too, allowing 121.3 points per 100 possessions (28th).
New Orleans is coming off Friday’s 122-109 home loss against the Portland Trail Blazers. The Pelicans went 8-for-30 from downtown and committed six more turnovers than Portland (15-9). Zion Williamson led the way for New Orleans with 35 points and eight rebounds.
Williamson tallies 23.4 points and 5.9 rebounds per game, while Trey Murphy III averages 20.5 points and 6.1 rebounds. Murphy missed the Trail Blazers game with a back injury and is questionable for Sunday’s clash versus Miami. Derik Queen (13.1 PPG, 7.0 RPG) and Saddiq Bey (15.1 PPG) are questionable, too.
The Heat are heating up
The Miami Heat were looking for their fifth straight victory on Saturday, when they hosted the Minnesota Timberwolves. In their previous four showings, the Heat have beaten the Atlanta Hawks 126-111, the Indiana Pacers 142-116, the Denver Nuggets 147-123, and the Detroit Pistons 118-112.
Miami scores 115.6 points per 100 possessions (tied for 15th in the NBA) and surrenders 112.3 points in return (3rd). The Heat make 37.0% of their shots from beyond the arc (6th) while holding their rivals to 34.4% shooting from downtown (5th).
Norman Powell leads the way for Miami, notching 24.2 points per game. Tyler Herro tallies 23.2 points and 5.0 rebounds per contest, while Bam Adebayo averages 17.7 points and 9.7 rebounds.
Adebayo has struggled with a back injury lately and was listed as probable for Saturday’s clash against Minnesota. He might miss the Pelicans game on the second day of a back-to-back. Herro is out with a toe injury, and the one-time All-Star remains without a timetable for a return.
Pelicans vs. Heat Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,976.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,595.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,320.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,627.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,451.00 |
Spread Pick for Pelicans vs. Heat
- New Orleans Pelicans (4 units)
There are a lot of moving parts in this game, as both teams struggle with injuries. Hereof, keep tracking the injury report. The Heat could easily decide the rest Bam Adebayo, while the Pelicans might get back some of their injured players.
This is a tough spot for the Heat, who will have to deal with fatigue on the second night of a back-to-back. The Pelicans should be highly motivated to try to break out of their funk, so I expect them to keep it close. Zion Williamson has been playing well of late, and the Heat will have a tall task to slow him down.
Over/Under Pick for Pelicans vs. Heat
- Over (4 units)
Miami plays at the fastest pace in the NBA, recording 104.2 possessions per 48 minutes. The Heat love to attack the paint, and the Pelicans are dead last in the league in opposing 2-point percentage (59.8%).
Hereof, I’m going with the over. Both teams take good care of the ball, and the Pelicans won’t hesitate to run up and down the floor against the Heat. New Orleans registers 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (14th), and the Pelicans have scored at least 114 points in four of their previous five outings away from home.
On the other side, the Heat have scored a whopping 289 points over their last two outings at home, excluding their Saturday’s encounter with the Timberwolves.
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