New Orleans Pelicans vs New York Knicks Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday March 24 2026
Use Code WWWC New York may be riding a six-game winning streak, but the most compelling story on Tuesday night's NBA slate is not the Knicks' recent dominance — it is the remarkable defensive surge New Orleans has been on since the All-Star break, and our NBA picks are pointing squarely at the total in a matchup where five of the last six head-to-head meetings have stayed under and the Pelicans have been holding elite opponents well below their scoring averages for over a month. The spread side also deserves a look given how one-sided the line movement has been since this game was first posted. Here is everything you need to know before tip-off at Madison Square Garden.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: New Orleans Pelicans +8.5
- Total Pick: Under 231.5
- Projected Final Score: New York 114, New Orleans 108
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Side | Spread (Open) | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | +9.5 | -110 |
| New York Knicks | -9.5 | -110 |
Current Odds
| Side | Spread (Current) | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | +8.5 | -110 |
| New York Knicks | -8.5 | -110 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | New Orleans | New York | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/24 | 09:11 AM | +8.5 -110 | -8.5 -110 | NY 63%, NO 50% |
| 03/24 | 08:17 AM | +8.5 -105 | -8.5 -115 | NY 62%, NO 50% |
| 03/24 | 06:42 AM | +9.5 -118 | -9.5 -102 | NY 66%, NY 66% |
| 03/24 | 06:42 AM | +8.5 -102 | -8.5 -118 | NY 66%, NY 66% |
| 03/24 | 05:02 AM | +8.5 -112 | -8.5 -108 | NY 66%, NY 66% |
| 03/24 | 04:47 AM | +9.5 -118 | -9.5 -102 | NY 66%, NY 66% |
| 03/24 | 04:35 AM | +8.5 +100 | -8.5 -120 | NY 66%, NY 66% |
| 03/24 | 04:35 AM | +9.5 -118 | -9.5 -102 | NY 66%, NY 66% |
| 03/24 | 04:34 AM | +8.5 +100 | -8.5 -120 | NY 66%, NY 66% |
| 03/24 | 03:17 AM | +9.5 -118 | -9.5 -102 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 03/24 | 02:50 AM | +8.5 +100 | -8.5 -120 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 03/24 | 12:59 AM | +9.5 -120 | -9.5 +100 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 03/24 | 12:59 AM | +8.5 +100 | -8.5 -120 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 03/24 | 12:58 AM | +9.5 -118 | -9.5 -102 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 03/24 | 12:57 AM | +8.5 -102 | -8.5 -118 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 03/24 | 12:43 AM | +9.5 -118 | -9.5 -102 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 03/24 | 12:43 AM | +9.5 -120 | -9.5 +100 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 03/23 | 11:55 PM | +9.5 -122 | -9.5 +102 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 03/23 | 10:48 PM | +9.5 -115 | -9.5 -105 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 03/23 | 10:48 PM | +9.5 -110 | -9.5 -110 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 03/23 | 10:47 PM | +9.5 -115 | -9.5 -105 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 03/23 | 06:07 PM | +9.5 -110 | -9.5 -110 | — |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/24 | 07:30 AM | 231.5 -112 | 231.5 -108 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 03/24 | 02:05 AM | 232.5 -102 | 232.5 -118 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 03/23 | 11:05 PM | 231.5 -110 | 231.5 -110 | — |
| 03/23 | 11:04 PM | 232.5 +100 | 232.5 -120 | — |
| 03/23 | 10:48 PM | 232.5 -105 | 232.5 -115 | — |
| 03/23 | 10:48 PM | 232.5 -110 | 232.5 -110 | — |
| 03/23 | 09:43 PM | 231.5 -105 | 231.5 -115 | — |
| 03/23 | 09:36 PM | 230.5 -115 | 230.5 -105 | — |
| 03/23 | 06:07 PM | 231.5 -105 | 231.5 -115 | — |
Pelicans vs Knicks Key Matchups and Handicap
The headline number on this game is the spread, which has moved a full point from 9.5 to 8.5 in New York's favor since opening Sunday evening. That movement came alongside overwhelming early public support for the Knicks — 100 percent of both tickets and money on New York across virtually every snapshot taken during the overnight window — yet the line moved toward New Orleans anyway. That is a classic reverse line movement signal: the public is pounding the favorite, but the number is shrinking, which almost always indicates sharp money landing on the underdog side.
The case for New Orleans covering starts with what the Pelicans have been doing defensively since the All-Star break. Over the last month-plus, New Orleans has held the Lakers to 110 points, the Raptors to 111, the Rockets to 107, and the Cavaliers to 111. Those are not cupcake opponents — those are legitimate playoff-caliber or borderline playoff teams, and the Pelicans kept every single one of them under 115 points. If New Orleans can hold New York to a similar number tonight, the final score almost certainly stays under the total and the Pelicans likely cover a spread that has already shrunk to 8.5.
The pace angle reinforces the Under case further. Since the All-Star break, the Knicks have been playing at a bottom-five pace in the NBA. New York has not been a team that pushes the tempo or generates high possession counts in recent weeks, and when a slow-paced offense runs into one of the league's more disciplined defensive units, totals tend to stay low. The market opened this total at 231.5 with the Under juiced at -115, moved it up to 232.5 with competing juice signals, and has since dropped back to 231.5 with the Under sitting at -108. The back-and-forth juice movement reflects genuine uncertainty, but the structural argument for the Under is grounded in two teams that have been playing slower, more controlled basketball than the total implies.
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The head-to-head history is also firmly on the Under's side. Five of the last six meetings between these franchises have stayed under the total, with the lone exception being New York's 130-125 win over the Pelicans earlier this season. That 130-125 outlier aside, the pattern of these games trending low is consistent and recent enough to carry real handicapping weight. New Orleans also did stay within the number as an eight-point underdog in the first meeting this season back in late December, which adds context to the current 8.5-point spread — the Pelicans have shown they can keep this competitive at similar price points.
New York's six-game winning streak is genuine, and the 32-point blowout of Washington on Sunday was dominant by any measure. But that game came against one of the worst teams in the league, and the Knicks' rotation rested heavily with no player logging more than 30 minutes. The rest benefit is real, but so is the rust factor that can accompany a lopsided, low-intensity game just 48 hours before a tougher opponent arrives. New Orleans, on the other hand, has had since Saturday to prepare for this matchup and should be sharp and motivated coming off a near-cover against Cleveland.
Betting Trends - NO vs NY
The spread movement on this game is one of the more instructive line stories on Tuesday's board. The game opened at New York -9.5 on Sunday evening and spent the entire overnight window from roughly 10:47 PM Sunday through the early hours of Monday with 100 percent of public tickets and money on the Knicks. Despite that unanimous public backing of New York, the line dropped a full point to -8.5 by Tuesday morning. A one-point move against unanimous public money is a meaningful reverse line movement signal that deserves full weight when evaluating which side the sharper money is on.
By Tuesday morning, the public percentages had softened slightly — 62 to 63 percent of tickets on New York with the money split closer to even at 50 percent on New Orleans — which suggests larger bets have been coming in on the Pelicans and balancing out the recreational money that was initially all on the Knicks. That transition from 100/100 on New York to 63/50 with the spread already down a point is a significant shift in market dynamics that points toward the underdog.
On the total, the available public snapshots from Tuesday morning both show 100 percent of tickets and money on the Over, yet the total itself has dropped from the 232.5 range back down to 231.5 with the juice shifting toward the Under. The pattern mirrors the spread: public money overwhelming on one side, line moving the other way. Both signals on this game — spread and total — are pointing in the same direction, and that kind of dual reverse line movement is relatively rare and worth paying close attention to.
Key Injuries and Notes - NO vs NY
Both rosters enter this game in reasonably good health, which makes this one of the cleaner injury situations on the Tuesday NBA slate. The Knicks are without guard Landry Shamet, who is dealing with a knee issue that has kept him out of action. Shamet's absence reduces New York's guard depth off the bench, but his role in the rotation is limited enough that his unavailability is unlikely to significantly alter the outcome or the pace at which the Knicks play.
For New Orleans, guard Bryce McGowens is dealing with a foot injury that has raised questions about his availability for Tuesday's game. McGowens is a developing rotation piece for the Pelicans rather than a primary contributor, and his potential absence does not dramatically reshape New Orleans' defensive identity or their ability to execute the game plan that has made them one of the hotter teams in the league since February.
The rest angle favors New Orleans in a meaningful way. The Pelicans last played on Saturday, giving them a full two days of rest and preparation heading into Tuesday night. The Knicks played Sunday against Washington in a blowout that allowed the coaching staff to rest key contributors and limit minutes, so New York is not walking in fatigued — but the Pelicans have had more time to scout, prepare, and game-plan for this specific matchup, which matters when playing a team they have already faced earlier this season.
Pelicans vs Knicks ATS and Total Picks
- Against the Spread: New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 (-110)
- Total: Under 231.5 (-108)
New Orleans covers tonight. The Pelicans have been one of the most reliable ATS teams in the league since the All-Star break at 12-3 against the spread, the line has moved a full point in their favor against overwhelming public action on New York, and their defensive performances over the last month make holding the Knicks to a number that keeps this within single digits entirely plausible. The 8.5-point current spread is a full point better than where this game opened, and the sharp money has been consistently landing on New Orleans throughout the tracking window.
The Under is the strongest play on the board in this game. Five of the last six meetings between these teams have stayed under the total, New Orleans has been holding elite opponents under 115 points for over a month, the Knicks have been playing bottom-five pace basketball since February, and the total line has been moving down despite 100 percent public money on the Over. Every structural angle in this game points toward a final score in the 108-to-115 range for both teams — well under the 231.5 posted number.
Final Score Prediction
New York 114, New Orleans 108
The Knicks win this game and extend their winning streak to seven, but New Orleans keeps it competitive throughout and covers the 8.5-point spread. The final combined score of 222 lands comfortably under the total, consistent with both the head-to-head history and the defensive patterns both teams have established over the last month. Pelicans bettors and Under bettors both cash their tickets in a game that plays out almost exactly as the line movement and matchup profile suggested it would.
How to Bet This Game
With the spread already down a full point from open and the total sitting at 231.5 with modest Under juice, locking in your numbers before tip-off is the priority tonight. Any late injury news on either roster — particularly around McGowens for New Orleans — could push the spread further and affect the total price, so getting your plays in before the afternoon lineup reports drop is the smart move.
Bettors who want a no-risk entry point into tonight's Pelicans-Knicks matchup should explore the best social sportsbooks currently available. These platforms offer solid NBA coverage and sweepstakes-style wagering that is ideal for games where you want to track the action without committing a real-money bankroll.
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