New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday March 13 2026
Use Code WWWC The Indiana Pacers have made life miserable for the New York Knicks over the past year, but Tuesday's Madison Square Garden showdown might be the spot where the scoreboard finally catches up with the talent gap — and if you have been following our NBA picks this season, you already know that a team losing by an average of 14.7 points per game during an 11-game skid has no business being anyone's underdog of the week. This Knicks vs Pacers prediction breaks down why New York is the right side despite two scares from Indiana earlier this year and why the total deserves a close look after the Pacers' defense got torched on Thursday night.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: New York Knicks -13.5
- Total Pick: Under 227.5
- Projected Final Score: New York 118, Indiana 103
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | -12.5 (-110) | Over 227.5 (-110) |
| Indiana Pacers | +12.5 (-110) | Under 227.5 (-110) |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | -13.5 (-108) | Over 227.5 (-112) |
| Indiana Pacers | +13.5 (-112) | Under 227.5 (-108) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | New York | Indiana | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12 | 9:19:58 PM | -12.5 (-110) | +12.5 (-110) | |
| 03/12 | 10:46:25 PM | -11.5 (-110) | +11.5 (-110) | |
| 03/13 | 1:41:14 AM | -11.5 (-115) | +11.5 (-105) | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 03/13 | 1:42:32 AM | -12.5 (-108) | +12.5 (-112) | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 03/13 | 2:21:24 AM | -12.5 (-115) | +12.5 (-105) | NY 80%, NY 50% |
| 03/13 | 2:23:51 AM | -13.5 (-108) | +13.5 (-112) | NY 80%, NY 50% |
| 03/13 | 8:02:51 AM | -13.5 (-112) | +13.5 (-108) | NY 66%, NY 80% |
| 03/13 | 10:01:52 AM | -13.5 (-108) | +13.5 (-112) | NY 53%, NY 71% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12 | 9:19:58 PM | 227.5 (-110) | 227.5 (-110) | |
| 03/13 | 9:18:05 AM | 228.5 (-105) | 228.5 (-115) | UN 96%, UN 75% |
| 03/13 | 9:19:03 AM | 227.5 (-112) | 227.5 (-108) | UN 96%, UN 75% |
Knicks vs Pacers Key Matchups and Handicap
Knicks
New York enters this Madison Square Garden matchup with a complicated recent history against Indiana but a strong structural case for covering what has become a double-digit number. The Knicks needed a 16-point comeback to beat the Pacers in December, then watched Indiana beat them as a double-digit underdog in February. Both results reveal that Mike Brown's team is capable of keeping games closer than expected, but they also reveal that the talent gap has caught up with Indiana in the weeks since. The Pacers that gave New York those scares earlier this season bear little resemblance to the team currently in the middle of an 11-game losing streak.
This is the final game of a road trip for the Knicks, who have gone 2-2 so far with wins over Denver and Utah and losses against the Lakers and Clippers. A home game to close the trip is an ideal spot, and the familiarity of Madison Square Garden removes any neutral-site or road-fatigue concern that might otherwise factor into the handicap. New York will be motivated to close this trip on a positive note, and the opponent they are facing is the same Indiana team that has been losing by an average of 14.7 points per game since the All-Star break.
The biggest concern for the Knicks heading into Tuesday is the health of Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart, both of whom are listed as questionable. Towns in particular changes the calculus of this matchup significantly if he cannot go, given how much New York's half-court offense runs through his pick-and-roll chemistry and interior scoring. Even if both are limited, however, the Pacers' recent defensive performances suggest they would struggle to take advantage regardless of who suits up for New York.
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Pacers
Indiana enters this spot in genuinely dire form, and the injury situation makes the case against the Pacers even more compelling. The Pacers are on the second leg of a back-to-back after falling at home to the Phoenix Suns on Thursday, a game in which Jalen Green and Devin Booker combined for 79 points and Phoenix shot 52.3 percent from the field. Indiana could not generate any consistent defensive resistance, and the Pacers lost by a margin that was not particularly close by the final buzzer.
Andrew Nembhard was outstanding individually with 23 points in 17 minutes, but one player carrying the offensive load is not a sustainable formula in a back-to-back spot on the road. Obi Toppin, T.J. McConnell, Aaron Nesmith, Quenton Jackson, and Pascal Siakam all missed Thursday's game against Phoenix, and their status heading into Tuesday's game at Madison Square Garden is currently unknown. If several of those players remain sidelined, Indiana's already thin rotation gets stretched even further against a Knicks team playing at home to close a road trip.
The macro picture is just as unflattering. Indiana is 0-11 straight-up and against the spread since returning from the All-Star break, and the list of teams beating them by double digits during that stretch includes the Wizards twice, the Mavericks, the Sixers, the Grizzlies, the Blazers, and the Kings. These are not contenders exploiting a weak Pacers team — these are lottery-bound or middle-of-the-pack opponents that simply have enough on their rosters to make Indiana look overmatched on a nightly basis. If those teams can beat the Pacers by double digits regularly, New York at home should be able to achieve a similar result.
The one number that deserves attention from a total perspective is the over trend in Indiana's games. The over has hit in 10 of the Pacers' last 13 contests, which reflects a team that has been giving up points at an alarming rate throughout the losing streak. Thursday's performance against Phoenix was the latest example of Indiana's inability to build any sustained defensive resistance, and the total market appears to have taken notice with sharp under money pushing the number down from 228.5 to 227.5 by mid-morning Friday.
Betting Trends - NY vs IND
- Indiana is 0-11 straight-up and against the spread since returning from the All-Star break, losing by an average of 14.7 points per game during that streak.
- The over has hit in 10 of the Pacers' last 13 games, reflecting consistent defensive breakdowns throughout Indiana's losing streak.
- New York needed a 16-point comeback to beat Indiana in December, then lost as a double-digit favorite in the second regular-season meeting in February.
- Indiana's recent losses by double digits include defeats at the hands of the Wizards twice, Mavericks, Sixers, Grizzlies, Blazers, and Kings.
- The spread has moved a full two points in New York's direction, opening at -12.5 and climbing to -13.5, with New York accounting for 100 percent of both dollars and tickets in the overnight window before the market normalized by morning.
- The total briefly climbed to 228.5 before sharp under money pushed it back down to 227.5, with under accounting for 96 percent of dollars and 75 percent of tickets at the time of that move.
Key Injuries and Notes - NY vs IND
New York Knicks: Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart are both listed as questionable heading into Tuesday's game. Towns' availability is the more significant of the two given his role as the focal point of New York's half-court offense. If he is limited or unable to go, the Knicks' interior scoring and pick-and-roll production could be affected. Hart's toughness and rebounding would also be missed if he cannot play. Both situations should be monitored closely before tip-off, though Indiana's current defensive form makes the Knicks a viable side even with a diminished rotation.
Indiana Pacers: Obi Toppin, T.J. McConnell, Aaron Nesmith, Quenton Jackson, and Pascal Siakam all missed Thursday's loss to Phoenix and are listed as unknown heading into this game. Siakam's absence in particular strips Indiana of its most versatile two-way contributor and primary half-court scoring option. If this group remains out, the Pacers will be operating with a skeleton rotation on the second night of a back-to-back on the road, which compounds an already difficult situation significantly.
ATS and Total Picks
- Against the Spread: New York Knicks -13.5 (-108). The number has climbed to the outer edge of comfort, but the case for laying it still holds when you examine Indiana's current trajectory. The Pacers are losing by nearly 15 points per game during their skid against opponents far less talented than the Knicks, they are on the second night of a back-to-back with multiple rotation players questionable, and New York is playing at home to close a road trip with clear motivation. The market moved this number two full points in New York's direction overnight for a reason.
- Total: Under 227.5 (-108). The over has hit in 10 of Indiana's last 13 games, which creates a natural lean toward the over in a reflexive handicapper. But Thursday night's blowout loss to Phoenix came in a game where Indiana's depleted roster was already outmatched, and the Pacers will be even more shorthanded and fatigued heading into Tuesday. A short rotation on the second night of a back-to-back tends to produce slower half-court possessions in the second half rather than the kind of up-and-down chaos that fuels high-scoring games. The sharp under money at 96 percent of dollars is the confirmation this total play needs.
Final Score Prediction
New York 118, Indiana 103. The Knicks build a comfortable lead by halftime as Indiana's back-to-back fatigue and depleted rotation make it impossible to sustain any defensive resistance at Madison Square Garden. Nembhard keeps the Pacers competitive in stretches, but New York pulls away in the third quarter and closes the road trip on a high note. The final margin covers the spread and the under holds as both teams slow down in the fourth quarter with the game well in hand.
How to Bet New York vs Indiana
This is one of those rare spots where the spread movement and the injury report are both pointing in the same direction, which tends to be a more reliable signal than either variable alone. Getting the Knicks before the number moves past -13.5 and locking in the under while it sits at 227.5 rather than 228.5 are both timing considerations worth keeping in mind as tip-off approaches.
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