Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Picks and Prediction for Sunday, March 1st, 2026
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The Oklahoma City Thunder (46-15, 31-29 ATS, 34-27 O/U) meet the Dallas Mavericks (21-38, 26-33 ATS, 28-31 O/U) in a conference clash on Sunday afternoon, and we have you covered with the prediction. The Thunder posted a home win against the Nuggets on Friday. The Mavericks dropped a home meeting against the Grizzlies in their previous action. The Thunder lead the season series 2-0.
Can the Thunder post a second straight win on Sunday? Check out the Thunder vs. Mavericks prediction. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NBA Picks!
Oklahoma City Begins Road Trek
The Oklahoma City Thunder begin a road trek on Sunday. Oklahoma City is in great shape in the standings. They are first in the division and conference, two games ahead of the Spurs. The Thunder are 3-2 in their past five games. They earned wins against the Nets, Cavaliers, and Raptors in late February.
Oklahoma City was dealt a road loss by Detroit last Wednesday. They came back home and answered with a solid 127-121 overtime home win against the Nuggets on Friday in a game that had the Thunder marked as 6.5-point favorites. Oklahoma City connected on 46% of its shots, and Denver posted a 42% efficiency. The Thunder have covered the spread in three of their past five games.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to dominate. The 27-year-old star scored 30 points on Friday. Gilgeous Alexander has scored 23 and 33 points in the two meetings against the Mavericks and has delivered an average of 32 PPG on 55% shooting. Jalen Williams has not played in about three weeks due to a hamstring injury and remains out of action. The guard is having an outstanding season, averaging 17.5 PPG and 5.4 APG.
Chet Holmgren has scored 15 or fewer points in five of his past six games. The 23-year-old center has posted an average of 17 PPG. Ajay Mitchell did not play on Friday due to an ankle injury and is questionable. The 23-year-old guard is a key player, averaging 14.1 PPG. Jared McCain has been a threat, scoring 12 or more points in five of his past seven efforts. The 22-year-old guard has netted 7.7 PPG.
Oklahoma City is 4-1 in its last five road games, including a defeat against the Spurs. They covered in all five games in that span. Oklahoma City is averaging 119.5 points on the season, ranking them third. The Thunder have conceded 113 or fewer points in five of their past seven games, and are keeping opponents to 108.2 points, placing them second. 
Mavericks Dealt Second Straight Defeat
The Dallas Mavericks are concluding a home stand in this one. Dallas continues to stumble. They have managed just two wins in February, including losses to the Celtics and Spurs earlier last month, which occurred against the Pacers and Nets on the road last week. They stand in 12th in the conference.
The Mavericks have dropped two in a row, losing by nine points to the Kings, along with a 124-105 home loss by the Grizzlies on Friday in a bout that had the Mavericks tabbed as five-point dogs. Dallas only connected on 42% of its shots while Memphis posted a 51% efficiency. The Mavericks have covered the spread in three of their past five games.
Copper Flagg has missed the past few weeks due to a foot injury and is not expected to play in this one. The 19-year-old #1 draft pick is having a promising rookie season, sporting an average of 20.5 PPG and 6.6 RPG. Naji Marshall has been leaned on due to the injury to Flagg. The veteran forward has scored 19 or more points on five occasions in February and has recorded an average of 15.4 PPG on 53% shooting. PJ Washington did not play on Friday due to injury and is questionable to play in this one. Washington is averaging 14.3 PPG.
Khris Middleton was acquired in a deal with the Bucks earlier this month. The veteran forward has connected on 50% of his field goals in three of his past five efforts and has netted an average of 10.9 PPG on the season. He scored six points in his only game against the Thunder. Brandon Williams scored 16 points on Friday. The 26-year-old guard has reported an average of 13 PPG.
The Mavericks stand at 0-5 in their last five home games, covering the spread in just one game in that span. Dallas is scoring an average of 114.4 points on the season, ranking them 22nd. The Mavericks have conceded 122 or more points in five of their past six games and are squandering an average of 118 points, pegging them 23rd in the NBA.
Oklahoma City vs. Dallas Pick
Spread Pick for Oklahoma City vs. Dallas
- Oklahoma City Thunder (5 units)
The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to thrive. They have won four of their past five games. They have also won the two meetings against the Mavericks this season. The Dallas Mavericks have been one of the worst teams in the NBA in the past month. They continue to play without their best player and leading scorer, Copper Flagg.
Furthermore, the Mavericks continue to be exposed in the defensive end. They have surrendered at least 122 points in five of their past six games. I can’t see them scoring enough against a Thunder team ranked #1 in field goal defense, especially with Flagg out of action. The Thunder won the previous meeting by 21 points. Go with the Thunder against a weak Mavericks squad.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bruce Marshall | +5,309.00 |
| 2 |  Bryan Power | +5,050.00 |
| 3 |  Steve Seagrave | +4,087.00 |
| 4 |  Tony Karpinski | +3,550.00 |
| 5 |  Chip Chirimbes | +2,263.00 |
Over/Under Pick for Oklahoma City vs. Dallas
- Over (5 units)
I expect a shootout. Oklahoma City exposed Dallas in the recent meeting, sinking 56% of their field goals. The over cashed by 12 points in that one. The Mavericks play at a quick pace, ranking 5th in the NBA in tempo.
In addition, Dallas has been decent in the offensive end, averaging 119 points in its past five games, above its season average. The Thunder has squandered 120+ points in two straight games. The over is a convincing 5-0 in the Thunder's past five road games.
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