Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers Picks and Prediction for Thursday, October 23, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s a rematch of the 2025 NBA Finals on the hardwood as the Oklahoma City Thunder travel to take on the Indiana Pacers Thursday night and we have you covered with our Thunder vs. Pacers prediction. Oklahoma City slipped past Houston 125-124 in double overtime at home Tuesday night in their previous contest, failing to cover the line as a 6.5-point favorite. Indiana finished the 2024-25 season 50-32 and finished second in the Central Division. The Pacers advanced to the NBA Finals, where they fell in seven games to the Thunder. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Thunder owns a 55-46 advantage and took both meetings last season, including a 132-111 home win in the most recent matchup March 29. Read more about this Thunder vs. Pacers prediction! No air balls here—only slam dunks with our NBA Picks!
Thunder Looking for 2-0 Start
Oklahoma City was in a tight game the whole way on opening night against the Rockets and benefited from a pair of uncharacteristic miscues by Kevin Durant to eventually pull out the win in double overtime. Against Houston, Oklahoma City trailed by three after the opening quarter, by as many as 10 in the first half and by six at intermission. The Thunder trailed by as many as 12 early in the third quarter, sliced the margin to four after three quarters and forced overtime on a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander jumper with 2.6 seconds remaining in regulation. Oklahoma City led by as many as six midway through the first overtime only to let it slip away. In the second overtime, the Thunder trailed by one in the dying seconds before Gilgeous-Alexander was fouled by Durant. He hit a pair of free throws with 2.4 seconds remaining for the lead and forced the Rockets’ final attempt to be off-line for the win.
In the contest, Oklahoma City shot 44.2% from the field, including a rough 13 of 52 (25%) showing from beyond the arc. The Thunder cashed in 20 of 25 free throw attempts in the game, lost the rebounding battle 52-38 and won the game by forcing 25 Houston turnovers, which they converted into 28 points. Oklahoma City won the fast break points battle 16-2 and points in the paint by a 50-44 margin. Gilgeous-Alexander paced the Thunder with 35 points, five rebounds and five assists in the win. Chet Holmgren added 28 points and seven boards before fouling out. Ajay Mitchell chipped in 16 points in 15 minutes off the bench, Cason Wallace put up 14 points, seven rebounds, five assists and four steals, while Aaron Wiggins contributed 10 off the pine. Lu Dort (two of 12, eight points) and Isaiah Hartenstein (two of five, six points, eight boards, five assists) will be looked to for better showings offensively.
Nikola Topic (groin) is out indefinitely. Alex Caruso (concussion), Isaiah Joe (knee), Jalen Williams (wrist) and Kenrich Williams (knee) are all out here. Dort (ankle) and Wallace (knee) are questionable.
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Indiana Seeking Modicum of Revenge for Finals Loss
Indiana finished the 2024-25 season 50-32 and finished second in the Central Division standings, fourth in the Eastern Conference standings, 14 games behind Cleveland for the top spot. The Pacers went on to dispatch the Bucks in five games in the opening round of the playoffs, the top-seeded Cavaliers in five games in the semifinals and the Knicks in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals. They then pushed the Thunder to Game 7 of the NBA Finals before running out of steam, denying the franchise its first NBA crown. This year’s Indiana team will look a bit different. They picked up no one of note in free agency as the two guys they added from other teams, Cameron Payne and Delon Wright, were waived in the preseason. Meanwhile, Myles Turner signed with Milwaukee while Thomas Bryant inked a deal with Cleveland. Perhaps even more importantly, Tyrese Haliburton suffered a torn Achilles in Game 7 of the NBA Finals and is likely out for the year.
Last year, Indiana was 7th in the league in scoring offense with 117.4 points per game for the season. The Pacers were 28th in rebounding with an average of 41.8 boards a night, while they were 3rd in assists by dishing out 29.2 dimes per contest. Indiana was 17th in the league in scoring defense as they allowed an average of 115.1 points per game on the year. Bennedict Mathurin was third on the team with 16.1 points per game. Pascal Siakam chipped in a team-high 20.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, along with 3.4 assists a night. T.J. McConnell added 9.1 points plus 4.4 assists and Isaiah Jackson chipped in seven points per game. Tyrese Haliburton (18.6 points, 9.2 assists), Jarace Walker, Jay Huff, Aaron Nesmith (12 points), Obi Toppin (10.5 points), Andrew Nembhard (10 points, five assists), Kam Jones, Johnny Furphy, Quenton Jackson and Ben Sheppard are all counted on to contribute this season. The Pacers were 3rd in the league in field goal percentage as they shot 48.8% from the floor as a team. Indiana was 16th in the league in threes per game as they splashed 13.2 triples per contest and the team was 9th by shooting 36.8% from beyond the arc on the year. The Pacers were above average at the charity stripe, ranking 9th in free-throw percentage by converting 78.9% of their attempts last season.
Haliburton (Achilles) is expected to miss the entire season after getting injured in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. McConnell (hamstring) is out until early to mid-November, as is Jones (back), dealing the backcourt depth a blow. In addition, Jackson (hamstring) is also out here.
Thunder vs. Pacers Pick
Thunder vs. Pacers Spread Pick
- Thunder -7.5
Oklahoma City had their hands full with the Rockets Tuesday night but prevailed even without Williams in the mix. That gave the Thunder a chance to knock the rust off and play a meaningful contest. Meanwhile, the Pacers may have made the Finals last season but this team is a shadow of that squad. Haliburton is hurt, Turner is gone and McConnell being out of action takes a veteran floor general out of the mix as well. The Pacers are at home, but with their backcourt depth taking a serious hit, there are more questions than answers in their rotation at this point of the season. Siakam and Nembhard aren’t enough to keep up with the Thunder in this contest. Look for the Thunder to overcome their own injury concerns to pick up the win here and a 2-0 start.
Thunder vs. Pacers Over/Under Pick
- Under 229.5 (-110)
Oklahoma City saw the over post a 55-49-2 mark In the 2024-25 campaign. The Thunder was a stellar third in offensive efficiency and was one of the teams that loved to push the pace, as they were sixth in the league in tempo with 100 possessions a night. With that said, Oklahoma City wouldn’t have gone over the number in their opener if Durant hadn’t missed a free throw late before Gilgeous-Alexander’s jumper forced overtime. Indiana saw the over post a 54-49-2 mark last season. The Pacers were ninth in offensive rating and seventh in tempo with 99.9 possessions a night last season. With so many missing pieces from last season for the Pacers, it’s tough to know where all the lost production comes from. After seeing the Thunder clamp down in regulation against Houston, look for this game to wind up falling short of the number.
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