Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies, Picks, Prediction, Odds and Line Movement for Friday, January 9, 2026
Another Western Division matchup is on tap between a potential dynasty and another that was supposed to be a consistent contender in this Thunder vs. Grizzlies prediction. Oklahoma City (31-7) broke a two-game losing streak by getting by Utah 129-125 in overtime on Wednesday in their last game. Memphis (16-21) has lost five of their last six, including a 117-98 loss against Phoenix on Wednesday. They'll host the Thunder on Friday night at 8:10 pm ET. These teams last met on December 22, with the Thunder winning 119-103 and covering the 12.5-point spread. OKC is a 3.5-point favorite in this matchup, with a total of 232.5 points. Check out more free NBA picks and predictions at Winners and Whiners.
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Thunder end "slump"
OKC lost two games to the Spurs on Dec. 23 and 25 and then went on to win four straight games. On Jan. 4, they fell at Phoenix by three and then lost at home to Charlotte 124-97 the next game. That was a rare misstep for a team that has been nearly unbeatable in the first half of the season, starting at 24-1. Since then, they've gone 7-6 over their last 13 games. In their win over Utah, Shai Gilegeous-Alexander went off with 46 points in the overtime win. They needed his production with center Isaiah Hartenstein (soleus strain) and guard Alex Caruso (back) out with injuries.
Chet Holmgren added 23 points, 12 rebounds and three blocks against the Jazz. Holmgren is averaging 18.2 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.8 blocks, while shooting 57.5% from the floor. SGA is on another MVP trajectory with 31.9 points and 6.4 assists, while shooting 54.8% from the field and 39.8% from long range.
According to DunksandThrees.com, the Thunder rank first in Adjusted Net Rating, fifth in Adjusted Offensive Rating and first in Adjusted Defense.
Injury list keeps growing for Memphis
At some point, Memphis has to make a decision. Is it time to rebuild or try and compete with a talented team that always seems to be hampered by injuries, especially to their star player, Ja Morant? Morant has missed three straight games and will miss his fourth due to a calf strain. The Grizzlies weren't playing that well to begin with, but did manage to shock the Spurs at home 106-105 as a 6-point dog on Jan. 6, before getting destroyed by the Suns at home the next day.
Morant has missed more than half of the game due to various injuries, while guards Ty Jerome (calf) and Scotty Pippen Jr. (toe) have been sidelined all season. To make matters worse, the Grizzlies were without Zach Edey (ankle) and rookie Cedric Coward (ankle) against the Suns. With Morant out, the Grizz need to lean on Jaren Jackson Jr. (18.5ppg), Jaylen Wells (12.4ppg), center Santi Aldama (13.9ppg, 6.7rpg), Coward (13.7ppg, 6.6rpg) and Cam Spencer (12.1ppg, 5apg)
Memphis is ranked 19th on DunksandThrees.com in Adjuted Net Rating, 23rd in Adjusted Offense and 13th in Adjusted Defense.
Spread Picks, Prediction and Odds for Thunder vs. Grizzlies
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,976.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,595.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,320.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,627.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,451.00 |
OKC Thunder vs. Grizzlies Pick and Line Movement
- OKC -3.5 (5 units)
Oklahoma City is a 3.5-point road favorite and they may not have Caruso and Hartenstein, but this is a very deep Thunder team. The only player they can't afford to lose is SGA. You can say the same thing about Morant for Memphis. The Grizzlies are used to playing without Morant, but they also could be missing Coward, a key piece in their rotation. The Thunder have won 15 straight against a Memphis team that was supposed to be right up there in the West as contenders. Unfortunately for Memphis, they've been surpassed due to injuries and underachieving players.
- Under 232.5 (4 units)
These teams have played two straight unders and unders in eight of the last meetings. Memphis has gone under in three straight and when you look at pace of play, Memphis is ninth, but Spencer is not the speedy Morant when it comes to pushing the ball at the point. The Thunder are 12th in pace of play, but they have the best defense in the league, holding teams to just 42.6% shooting on the road to rank first.
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