Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Picks, Prediction and Odds Game 4
Use Code WWWC Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing matchups of the entire postseason, with Oklahoma City holding a 2-1 series lead and San Antonio receiving some much-needed reinforcements. The Thunder's depth has been the story of the series so far, but the Spurs are about to get healthier at the worst possible time for OKC. For more NBA picks and analysis, we're breaking down everything you need to know about this pivotal Sunday showdown in San Antonio, where the Spurs desperately need a win to even the series before heading back to Oklahoma City.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: San Antonio Spurs +2.5
- Total Pick: Over 218.5
- Projected Final Score: Oklahoma City 119, San Antonio 117
Odds and Line Movement
The betting market has been active on this Game 4 matchup, with sharp money and public action both weighing in on the spread and total. Below is a complete look at the opening odds, current odds, and how the lines have moved leading up to tip-off.
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City | 2½ -110 | 217½ -110 |
| San Antonio | -2½ -110 | 217½ -110 |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City | 2½ -110 | 218½ -110 |
| San Antonio | -2½ -110 | 218½ -110 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Oklahoma City | San Antonio | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/23 | 10:38:43PM | 2½ -110 | -2½ -110 | OKC 77%, OKC 60% |
| 05/23 | 08:51:13PM | 2½ -105 | -2½ -115 | OKC 87%, OKC 61% |
| 05/23 | 08:46:33PM | 2½ -108 | -2½ -112 | OKC 87%, OKC 61% |
| 05/23 | 08:26:33PM | 2½ -105 | -2½ -115 | OKC 87%, OKC 61% |
| 05/23 | 06:18:54PM | 2½ -108 | -2½ -112 | OKC 85%, OKC 66% |
| 05/23 | 06:18:13PM | 2½ -105 | -2½ -115 | OKC 85%, OKC 66% |
| 05/23 | 06:16:24PM | 2½ -108 | -2½ -112 | OKC 85%, OKC 66% |
| 05/23 | 06:16:04PM | 3½ -110 | -3½ -110 | OKC 85%, OKC 66% |
| 05/23 | 02:12:24PM | 2½ -115 | -2½ -105 | OKC 93%, OKC 88% |
| 05/23 | 02:11:44PM | 1½ -105 | -1½ -115 | OKC 93%, OKC 88% |
| 05/22 | 11:29:17PM | 1½ -108 | -1½ -112 | |
| 05/22 | 11:23:57PM | 1½ -110 | -1½ -110 | |
| 05/22 | 11:23:57PM | |||
| 05/22 | 11:22:57PM | 2½ -110 | -2½ -110 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/23 | 10:39:03PM | 218½ -110 | 218½ -110 | OV 75%, OV 80% |
| 05/23 | 12:37:24PM | 218½ -115 | 218½ -105 | OV 89%, OV 75% |
| 05/23 | 07:10:28AM | 219½ -108 | 219½ -112 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 05/23 | 07:09:48AM | 218½ -112 | 218½ -108 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 05/23 | 04:40:18AM | 219½ -105 | 219½ -115 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 05/23 | 04:39:47AM | 218½ -112 | 218½ -108 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 05/23 | 12:34:47AM | 219½ -105 | 219½ -115 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 05/23 | 12:34:47AM | |||
| 05/23 | 12:17:07AM | 218½ -115 | 218½ -105 | |
| 05/22 | 11:25:27PM | 218½ -110 | 218½ -110 | |
| 05/22 | 11:25:27PM | |||
| 05/22 | 11:22:57PM | 217½ -110 | 217½ -110 |
Thunder vs Spurs Key Matchups and Handicap
Prior to Friday's Game 3 in San Antonio, we said that Oklahoma City's bench unit could rival the starting five of most teams around the league. That was on full display as the Thunder's reserve unit out-scored its starting five by a comfortable margin, led by 24 points from Jared McCain. Jaylin Williams played an average of ten minutes in Games 1 and 2, but he was ready when his number was called on Friday. Williams finished with 18 points and two steals in 22 minutes as the Thunder took a 2-1 series lead.
San Antonio
Victor Wembanyama led the Spurs with 26 points, but Oklahoma City's hockey-style substitutions continue to be an issue for San Antonio. Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault is giving Wembanyama a different look on defense every time the Spurs have the ball. The defenders that Oklahoma City is throwing at Wembanyama - Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren - are all playing significantly less minutes than the Spurs' center, so they have enjoyed fresh legs throughout this series.
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Oklahoma City
Depth will continue to be in Oklahoma City's favor as the series goes on, but San Antonio did receive some positive news heading into Sunday. After posting a 117.6 offensive rating during the regular season, the Thunder have produced a 123.5 offensive rating through the first 11 playoff games. Losing Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams hurts, but the Thunder have shown that they have an army of ready-and-willing scorers coming off the bench to fill any void.
Betting Trends - OKC vs SAS
Thunder
The first three games of this Western Conference Final have gone over the total, and that trend has been heavily influenced by Oklahoma City's improved offensive output in the playoffs. Jumping from a 117.6 regular-season offensive rating to a 123.5 mark through 11 playoff games shows how dangerous this Thunder offense has become when it matters most.
Spurs
San Antonio played at the fastest pace of the four remaining playoff teams, and the Spurs wouldn't mind a track meet on Sunday. With Fox getting a game under his belt, the Spurs' best chance to tie the series is to turn this game into a high-scoring shootout. Wembanyama's 26-point performance in Game 3 shows the offensive ceiling is there even when the team loses.
Key Injuries and Notes - OKC vs SAS
Oklahoma City
Ajay Mitchell is not expected to play on Sunday, and Jalen Williams remains questionable after missing Game 3. Losing two rotation pieces is significant, but the Thunder's depth was so dominant in Game 3 that the bench out-scored the starting five even without Williams available.
San Antonio
The Spurs received some much-needed positive news heading into Sunday. Dylan Harper and De'Aaron Fox have both been cleared to play after both dealt with injuries. After missing the first two games of the series, Fox had the Spurs' best plus/minus rating in Game 3 and could play a bigger role in this one.
Thunder vs Spurs ATS and Total Picks
- ATS Pick: San Antonio Spurs +2.5 (-110)
- Total Pick: Over 218.5 (-110)
With De'Aaron Fox now having a full game under his belt and Dylan Harper cleared to play, the Spurs have a real chance to keep this one close on their home floor. The Thunder are dealing with their own absences, and a desperate San Antonio team that wants to push the pace should be able to cover the small spread. The over is the stronger play of the two, given that all three games of the series have already cleared this total and both teams have an incentive to play fast.
Final Score Prediction
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 119
- San Antonio Spurs: 117
Expect a high-scoring affair that comes down to the wire. The Thunder's depth eventually wins out, but the Spurs cover the spread thanks to a healthier Fox and the return of Harper to the rotation.
How to Bet OKC vs SAS
If you're looking to get in on the action for Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals, there are plenty of options available depending on your location and preference. For bettors in states where traditional sportsbooks are not yet legal, social sportsbooks have become an increasingly popular alternative, offering a similar experience with the chance to redeem winnings for real cash prizes. These platforms are accessible across most of the United States and provide a great way to bet on NBA playoff games like this one.
One of the most popular options in the social sportsbook space is Fliff, which offers a sweepstakes-style model that allows users to enjoy sports betting in a legal and accessible way. New users can take advantage of a fliff promo code to boost their initial deposit and get more value when wagering on Game 4. Whether you're playing the spread, the total, or building a same-game parlay around Wembanyama's scoring output and the over, having the right platform and the right promo can stretch your bankroll further during the conference finals.
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