Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks Predictions, Picks, Odds, and Line Movement for January 1 2026
Philadelphia vs Dallas picks highlight a matchup that is shaping up to be another high-scoring affair between two teams that are comfortable playing fast. As I dig through the NBA picks for this slate, this game immediately stands out because of recent history, current form, and how the market is pricing the total.
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Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread: Philadelphia -1
- Total: Over 231
- Projected Final Score: Philadelphia 121, Dallas 116
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,976.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,595.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,320.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,627.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,451.00 |
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | -1 (-105) | 228 (-110) |
| Dallas | +1 (-115) | 228 (-110) |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | -2.5 (-108) | 231 (-108) |
| Dallas | +2.5 (-112) | 231 (-112) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Philadelphia | Dallas | Public |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01 | -2.5 (-108) | +2.5 (-112) | |
| 01/01 | -1.5 (-112) | +1.5 (-108) | |
| 01/01 | -1 (-112) | +1 (-108) | |
| 01/01 | -1 (-105) | +1 (-115) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01 | 231 (-108) | 231 (-112) | |
| 12/31 | 230 (-114) | 230 (-106) | |
| 12/31 | 231 (-110) | 231 (-110) | |
| 12/31 | 229 (-110) | 229 (-110) | |
| 12/31 | 228 (-110) | 228 (-110) |
Key Matchups and Handicap
These teams just met on December 20 with Philadelphia earning a 121-114 home win, and that result came with Joel Embiid and Paul George both sidelined. That win extended Philadelphia’s dominance in this series, as the Sixers have now won four straight against Dallas.
Dallas enters this matchup struggling to find consistency, having lost five of its last six games. The Mavericks are still playing at a top-five pace this season, and their offense is starting to look more fluid, but the defensive issues remain. That combination has created an environment where overs continue to cash.
Philadelphia snapped a three-game losing streak with a gritty three-point win over the Grizzlies on Tuesday. With Embiid expected to return and Tyrese Maxey running point, the Sixers are comfortable leaning into tempo when the matchup calls for it. Last week’s meeting featured 40 fast-break points combined, and Maxey erupted for 38 points in a game that never slowed down.
Dallas has no major names on the early injury report, which should keep their rotation intact, but that also means this game is likely to be played at the Mavericks’ preferred pace. When these teams get into track meets, Philadelphia has consistently had the edge thanks to its guard play and ability to finish in transition.
Betting Trends for PHI and DAL
- Philadelphia has won each of the last four meetings with Dallas.
- Four of the Sixers’ last five games have gone over the total.
- The over is 8-3 in Dallas’ last 11 games.
Key Injuries and Notes for PHI and DAL
- Philadelphia: Joel Embiid is expected to play.
- Dallas: No players listed on the early injury report.
ATS and Total Picks
- ATS: Philadelphia -1
- Total: Over 231
Final Score Prediction
The pace and recent trends point toward another offensive-heavy matchup, with Philadelphia continuing its run of success in this series.
Final Score: Philadelphia 121, Dallas 116
How to Bet
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