Phoenix Suns vs Cleveland Cavaliers Picks and Prediction for Wednesday December 31 2025
The Phoenix Suns head to Rocket Arena on Wednesday afternoon looking to keep their momentum rolling against the Cleveland Cavaliers in a cross-conference matchup with two teams trending in very different directions. Tip-off is set for 3:30 PM ET with coverage listed as NBA TV and regional availability through FanDuel SN OH. Before we jump into the full breakdown, be sure to check out our other free NBA picks, where we’re covering the entire slate using only the matchup resources provided and the same betting-focused format.
At first glance, you might expect Phoenix to be the side the models love because they’ve stacked wins lately — but the matchup predictor leans heavily toward Cleveland. That clash between current form and projection confidence is what makes this game especially interesting for both the spread and the total.
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Game Information and Betting Snapshot
Phoenix Suns (19–13, 9–8 Away) vs Cleveland Cavaliers (18–16, 11–8 Home)
- Date: Wednesday, December 31, 2025
- Time: 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH
- TV: NBA TV / FanDuel SN OH
- Spread: Cleveland -5.5
- Total: 235.5
- Moneyline: Phoenix +195 | Cleveland -238
Cleveland is priced as the clear favourite at home, and the matchup predictor backs that up in a big way — even with Phoenix coming in on a strong streak.
Phoenix’s Surge: Winning Streak, Defensive Activity, and a Steady Scoring Base
Phoenix enters this game at 19–13 with a 9–8 road record, and they’re currently riding a four-game win streak (W4). Over their last five games, the Suns are 4–1, and the wins haven’t been flukes or squeakers — they’ve been relatively solid scoreboard performances:
- W 115–101 at Washington (12/29)
- W 123–114 at New Orleans (12/27)
- W 115–108 at New Orleans (12/26)
- W 132–108 vs Lakers (12/23)
- L 119–116 at Golden State (12/20)
That stretch also gives us an important clue for the total: Phoenix has been playing in games with plenty of points, and even their “lower” scoring win (115–101) still produces a 216 total. When you start stacking those results, you see a team that can both score and force opponents into uncomfortable possessions.
From the team stats provided, Phoenix averages 115.1 points per game and allows 113.3, giving them a positive scoring margin. They shoot 47% from the field, rebound at 42.9 per game, and average 25.5 assists. The defensive playmaking is a notable strength: 10.8 steals per game, which is a high number and often correlates with transition chances and quick scoring bursts.
Phoenix’s season leader is Devin Booker, putting up 25.3 points per game on 45.4% shooting and 85.2% at the free-throw line. In a game with a high total (235.5), having a high-usage scorer with reliable free throws matters — especially in late-game situations where fouling can swing both the side and total.
Key Injuries – Phoenix Suns
- Ryan Dunn (F): GTD (Dec 31)
- Grayson Allen (G): GTD (Dec 31)
- Jalen Green (G): OUT (Jan 7)
The GTDs are important because Phoenix’s recent form has been strong, but game-to-game depth and spacing can change quickly when rotation pieces are questionable.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,976.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,595.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,320.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,627.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,451.00 |
Cleveland’s Home Angle: Higher Scoring Output and the Mitchell Factor
Cleveland comes into the game at 18–16 with an 11–8 home record, and they’ve got a W1 streak after beating San Antonio 113–101 on December 29. Their last five results show a bit of volatility, but also a clear ability to score:
- W 113–101 at San Antonio (12/29)
- L 117–100 at Houston (12/27)
- L 126–124 at New York (12/25)
- W 141–118 vs New Orleans (12/23)
- W 139–132 vs Charlotte (12/22)
Those two big home totals — 141–118 and 139–132 — matter when you’re evaluating a 235.5 number. Cleveland has shown they can push games into the 250s when the pace and shot-making align.
Team-stat wise, Cleveland averages 119.4 points per game (higher than Phoenix) and allows 117.3, which is why their games can get loose on the scoreboard. They shoot 46% from the field, rebound at 44.5 per game, and average 27.6 assists, which is a meaningful edge over Phoenix’s 25.5. The Cavs also bring defensive activity with 9.0 steals and 4.9 blocks per game — not as high on steals as Phoenix, but still disruptive enough to create extra possessions.
Their season leader, and the biggest single-player number in the game, is Donovan Mitchell at 30.7 points per game on an excellent 49.9% shooting and 85.3% at the line. That combination of volume and efficiency is a massive driver for Cleveland’s ability to build runs at home.
Key Injuries – Cleveland Cavaliers
- Larry Nance Jr. (F): OUT (Jan 10)
- Max Strus (G): OUT (Jan 10)
- Sam Merrill (G): GTD (Dec 31)
Cleveland has some rotation uncertainty as well, especially with Merrill listed as GTD, but Mitchell’s availability isn’t questioned here, and his scoring profile is the central piece in how Cleveland’s offence projects.
How the Provided Numbers Shape the Spread and Total
Here’s the core tension in this matchup, using only what you provided:
- Phoenix is on a W4 streak and has gone 4–1 in their last five.
- Cleveland is favored by -5.5, and the matchup predictor heavily leans Cleveland (67.6%) over Phoenix (32.4%).
That tells you the projection model is weighing Cleveland’s overall profile and home environment strongly, even against Phoenix’s current run.
From a matchup-stat standpoint, Cleveland’s offensive output is the biggest separator: 119.4 PPG vs Phoenix 115.1 PPG. Both teams allow a decent amount, but Cleveland’s defensive number (117.3 allowed) is higher than Phoenix’s (113.3 allowed), which is one of the reasons the total is set high.
The total at 235.5 is aggressive, but not random. Cleveland has recent results that smash that range (like 141–118 and 139–132), and Phoenix’s last five includes totals of 216, 237, 223, 240, and 235. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s clear the market is pricing this as a game that can be played in the 118–120 type scoring window for both sides.
Phoenix Suns vs Cleveland Cavaliers Pick
Against the Spread Pick: Phoenix Suns +5.5
I’m taking the points with Phoenix because their current form is too strong to ignore within the resources provided. They’re on a four-game win streak, they’ve won four of their last five, and their defensive activity (especially 10.8 steals per game) gives them a path to stay competitive even if Cleveland’s offence is humming. With Booker providing a stable scoring base and Phoenix carrying a positive scoring margin on the season (115.1 scored, 113.3 allowed), I’m backing the Suns to keep this within two possessions.
Total Pick: Over 235.5
I’m leaning over because Cleveland’s profile screams high-scoring volatility: 119.4 PPG scored and 117.3 allowed, plus recent home results that landed well above this number. Phoenix has also been involved in multiple totals hovering around or above the mid-230s during this recent run, and both teams feature a high-output leader (Booker at 25.3 PPG, Mitchell at 30.7 PPG). If Cleveland plays to their offensive average and Phoenix holds near their scoring baseline, this number is reachable.
Final Prediction
This looks like a game where Cleveland may have the home-court advantage and the bigger top-end scoring weapon, but Phoenix’s current momentum and defensive playmaking keep them live to cover.
Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers 121, Phoenix Suns 117
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