Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors, Picks, Prediction, Odds and Line Movement for Friday, January 9, 2026
We're looking at a Pacific Division matchup in this Kings vs. Warriors prediction on Friday night. Golden State (20-18) is in eighth place in the Western Conference, while Sacramento (8-29) is eight games behind Memphis for a play-in game. Golden State will host Sacramento on Friday at 10 p.m. ET from Chase Center. These teams met on Nov. 5 in Sacramento, with the Kings winning this game 121-116 as a 2.5-point favorite. The Warriors are a 13.5-point favorite and the total is 228.5 with the money line at Golden State -649. Check more free NBA Picks and college basketball predictions at Winners and Whiners.
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Lost season in Sacramento
What in the world has happened in Sacramento? This was a 40-42 team last season that lost in the play-in game to Dallas and has now won just eight games in early January. They come into this game having lost six straight games, with their last game coming against Dallas, as they fell 100-98 as a 4.5-point dog at home. Zach LaVine scored 20 points in 37 minutes after returning from an ankle injury that cost him nine straight games. Veteran DeMar DeRozan scored 21 points to lead the Kings, who shot just 42% from the field and 29% (9-31) from long range.
The biggest issue for the Kings is age. They have a bad mix of players over 30 and while some are still productive like DeRozan (18.4 ppg), others like Russell Westbrook (14.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 6.6 apg) probably need to come off the bench. They've also had key players like Domantas Sabonis (knee) miss 26 games due to a knee injury and losing a dominant rebounder (12.3 rpg) is difficult. Sacramento ranks 30th in rebounding percentage at 46.9% and not having Sabonis most of the season is a big reason.
LaVine leads the team with 20.2 points per game on 48.4% shooting. Keegan Murray (14.6ppg, 6.1rpg) is a starting-caliber player who has been limited to just 19 games due to an ankle injury is out another 2-3 weeks. According to DunksandThrees.com, the Kings are ranked 29th in Adjusted Net Rating, 29th in Adjusted Offensive Rating and 27th in Adjusted Defense.
Warriors searching for consistency
Golden State is coming off a 120-113 win over Milwaukee on Wednesday as a 6.5-point favorite. Steph Curry led the way with 31 points, while Anthony Melton added 22 points off the bench. Al Horford, getting some playing time, chipped in with eight points, 10 rebounds and six assists off the bench in 19 minutes.
The Warriors have won three straight games twice and that's their longest winning streak of the season. They've also lost three straight twice, so they've not been great for a long stretch or poor. Having an older team, with seven players at 33 or older, means some have to rest at times or use load management when it comes to playing games on back-to-back nights. Steph Curry leads the team with 28.8 points per game and has played 28 of 38 games due to foot and ankle issues. Jimmy Butler adds 19.7 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists.
According to DunksandThrees.com, the Warriors rank 10th overall in Adjusted Net Rating, 17th in Adjusted Offense and seventh in Adjusted Defense.
Spread Picks and Prediction for Kings vs. Warriors
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,976.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,595.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +2,320.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,627.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,451.00 |
Kings vs. Warriors Line Movement, Odds and Pick
- Sacramento +13.5 (5 units)
I like the Kings here to cover the spread, because LaVine is back and they should be much more competitive with him, DeRozan, Dennis Schroder and 7-1 rookie center Maxime Raynaud, who has been a big help on the boards. Without their leading scorer LaVine, they lost five straight SU and ATS. With him back in the lineup against a Dallas team with Anthony Davis, they lost by just two points and covered the spread. Golden State covered just once in their last five games. The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.
- Over 228.5 (4 units)
These teams have played five straight overs and seven of the last eight. Both teams are about middle of the NBA in pace of play. But when you look at the age of both teams, with so many thirty-something players, something has to give defensively. The Kings are allowing teams to shoot 49.5% from the field to rank 30th in the NBA, while Golden State is shooting 36% from long range (14th) overall and they are allowing teams to shoot 47.1% from the field overall (16th). On the road, Sacramento is even worse defensively, allowing 123.6 points per game (28th), while Golden State averages 117.2 points per game at home (15th).
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