San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction and Picks - October 22, 2025
Use Code WWWC Wednesday evening on the NBA Hardcourt, and we have a San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction locked and loaded for you. San Antoinio is hoping for better results this year after a 34-48 showing a year ago. Dallas went 39-43 last year, which was good enough for 10th in the Western Conference. Dallas took three of the four meetings between these teams last year. Continue reading to see our Spurs vs Mavericks prediction.
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Can The Spurs Take The Next Step
San Antonio enters this season opener with a sense of cautious optimism. Victor Wembanyama remains the centerpiece of the franchise, and his growth as both a scorer and rim protector has been the defining storyline of the Spurs’ rebuild. His ability to stretch the floor offensively while altering shots defensively gives San Antonio a unique weapon that few teams can match. Alongside him, Devin Vassell provides perimeter scoring and spacing, while veteran additions like Harrison Barnes bring stability and experience to a young roster still learning how to win consistently.
The Spurs’ backcourt will be worth watching closely. With De’Aaron Fox nursing a hamstring issue, San Antonio may need to rely more heavily on Stephon Castle and De'Aaron Fox to handle playmaking duties. That shift could slow their offensive rhythm, but it also offers an opportunity for younger guards to gain valuable reps against a Mavericks defense that has been inconsistent in recent seasons. The Spurs averaged just under 114 points per game last year, and finding ways to generate efficient half-court offense will be critical if they want to keep pace in Dallas.
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Defensively, San Antonio has the tools to be disruptive. Wembanyama’s presence alone changes how opponents attack the paint, and the Spurs were among the league leaders in blocks last season. However, their perimeter defense remains a concern, as they allowed opponents to shoot nearly 37% from three. Against a Mavericks team that thrives on spacing and perimeter creation, San Antonio will need to close out aggressively and avoid giving up clean looks from deep. If they can combine rim protection with sharper rotations on the outside, they’ll give themselves a chance to steal a road win.
Dallas Looks for A Fast Start
Dallas begins the 2025–26 season with a new identity. Luka Dončić is no longer in the fold, and the Mavericks are now building around a core that features Anthony Davis and rookie sensation Cooper Flagg. Davis provides the interior dominance and defensive anchor that Dallas has lacked in recent years, while Flagg’s versatility and energy have already made him a fan favorite during the preseason. The combination of Davis’ established star power and Flagg’s upside gives the Mavericks a foundation that blends present competitiveness with future promise.
The backcourt rotation is also intriguing. With Kyrie Irving sidelined by a knee injury, Dallas will lean on Klay Thompson and D’Angelo Russell to provide perimeter scoring and secondary playmaking. Thompson’s shooting remains a weapon that can stretch defenses, while Russell’s ability to operate in pick-and-roll sets complements Davis’ presence in the paint. The Mavericks averaged just over 114 points per game last season, and while their offensive ceiling may look different without Dončić, they still have enough firepower to challenge opposing defenses.
Defensively, Dallas has the potential to be much improved. Davis’ rim protection, combined with Dereck Lively II’s development as a rebounder and shot-blocker, gives the Mavericks a formidable interior presence. On the perimeter, Thompson and Flagg bring length and discipline, which should help reduce the number of open looks opponents have exploited in past seasons. The key will be consistency — Dallas allowed over 115 points per game last year, and if they can bring that number down, they’ll be positioned to contend in the Western Conference. Against San Antonio, their ability to contain Wembanyama while forcing the Spurs’ guards into tough shots will likely determine the outcome.
San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks Pick
Spurs vs Mavericks Spread Pick
- San Antonio +2.5 (4 Units)
Taking San Antonio +2.5 has a strong case when you look at how their roster is built to compete in this type of matchup. Victor Wembanyama’s presence alone changes the dynamic on both ends of the floor—his rim protection forces Dallas into tougher shots inside, while his ability to stretch the floor offensively creates mismatches against slower bigs. The Spurs also have reliable secondary scoring in Devin Vassell, who can punish defenses that collapse on Wembanyama, and steady veteran contributions from Harrison Barnes to balance out the younger core. With Dallas still adjusting to a new offensive identity, San Antonio’s defensive length and ability to generate transition opportunities could keep this game within a possession late.
The spread also feels favorable given the Spurs’ ability to dictate tempo. Dallas has the star power with Anthony Davis, but their supporting cast is still finding its rhythm without Luka Dončić or Kyrie Irving in the lineup. San Antonio’s depth, particularly in the backcourt with Tre Jones and rookie Stephon Castle, gives them multiple ball-handlers who can control pace and limit turnovers. If the Spurs can keep Dallas from dominating the paint and force them into perimeter-heavy possessions, they’ll be in position to cover the +2.5 and potentially steal a road win outright.
Spurs vs Mavericks Over/Under Pick
- Under 227 (5 Units)
The Under 227 makes sense here, given the way both teams are constructed. San Antonio leans heavily on Victor Wembanyama’s rim protection and half-court defense, while Dallas, now built around Anthony Davis, is also more defense-first than in past seasons. Neither side is likely to push the pace aggressively, and with Kyrie Irving sidelined, the Mavericks lose one of their most dynamic offensive creators. The Spurs, meanwhile, are still developing consistency in their young backcourt, which could limit their scoring efficiency on the road. With both clubs relying on length, rim protection, and structured half-court sets, this matchup projects more as a grind-it-out battle than a shootout, keeping the total under 227.
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