San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks, Prediction and Odds Game 4
Use Code WWWC The Western Conference semifinals continue Sunday night in Minneapolis as the San Antonio Spurs look to push their series lead to 3-1 against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Victor Wembanyama has been nothing short of otherworldly through three games, but Anthony Edwards and the home crowd will have plenty to say about whether this becomes a runaway series or a true seven-game battle. For more NBA picks and analysis on every postseason matchup, we have you covered with detailed breakdowns and betting trends.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Minnesota +4½ (-112)
- Total Pick: Under 216½ (-110)
- Projected Final Score: San Antonio 108, Minnesota 106
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| San Antonio | -4½ (-110) | O 218½ (-108) |
| Minnesota | +4½ (-110) | U 218½ (-112) |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| SA | -4½ (-108) | O 217½ (-106) |
| MIN | +4½ (-112) | U 217½ (-114) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | San Antonio | Minnesota | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | 11:35:03 AM | -4½ -110 | +4½ -110 | SA 62%, SA 60% |
| 05/09 | 12:23:33 AM | -4½ -108 | +4½ -112 | — |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | 12:03:58 PM | 218½ -108 | 218½ -112 | OV 95%, OV 50% |
| 05/09 | 10:22:26 AM | 217½ -106 | 217½ -114 | OV 95%, UN 67% |
| 05/09 | 01:58:15 AM | 217½ -110 | 217½ -110 | — |
| 05/09 | 01:57:57 AM | 217½ -112 | 217½ -108 | — |
| 05/09 | 12:58:20 AM | 217½ -110 | 217½ -110 | — |
| 05/09 | 12:35:01 AM | 216½ -110 | 216½ -110 | — |
| 05/09 | 12:33:32 AM | 215½ -114 | 215½ -106 | — |
| 05/09 | 12:29:25 AM | 215½ -110 | 215½ -110 | — |
| 05/09 | 12:23:33 AM | 216½ -110 | 216½ -110 | — |
Spurs vs Timberwolves Key Matchups and Handicap
San Antonio
San Antonio has taken a 2-1 series lead behind another historic performance from Victor Wembanyama. After generating 12 blocks in Game 1, Wembanyama finished with 39 points, 15 rebounds and five blocks in Friday's Game 3 victory. The Spurs have leaned heavily on his ability to control both ends of the floor, and as long as he stays in foul trouble-free territory, San Antonio's ceiling remains extremely high.
That said, the Spurs only won one quarter in Friday's Game 3. The first, second and fourth quarters were played dead-even, meaning San Antonio's seven-point margin came almost entirely from a single decisive stretch. That isn't the profile of a team about to run away with a series, especially on the road.
Timberwolves
Minnesota's Anthony Edwards had a very strong game with 32 points and 14 rebounds, but he didn't get much help. The rest of the T-Wolves' roster combined to shoot 35.6-percent from the field. Ayo Dosunmu made his return from injury, but was largely ineffective as he finished with 11 points on 4-of-12 shooting with four turnovers.
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Outside of the cold shooting, the Timberwolves should actually be encouraged. Minnesota finished +6 in rebounding margin after losing the rebounding battle in each of the first two games. The T-Wolves only turned the ball over 12 times. Minnesota has produced the second-best rebounding rate in the playoffs thus far, trailing only the Knicks. Jaden McDaniels and Julius Randle combined to shoot 8-of-34 (23.5-percent) from the field in Friday's loss and the T-Wolves still only lost by seven. Any mild shooting improvement should keep this game close.
Betting Trends - SA vs MIN
- Minnesota covered the spread before Game 3 and has been a profitable underdog play in this series.
- San Antonio has only won one quarter in Friday's Game 3, suggesting margins are tighter than the series record indicates.
- The Timberwolves rank second among playoff teams in rebounding rate, behind only the Knicks.
- Minnesota was +6 on the glass in Game 3 after losing the rebounding battle in Games 1 and 2.
- The total has trended downward from 218½ to 217½ as sharper money came in on the under.
Key Injuries and Notes - SA vs MIN
- Spurs: Victor Wembanyama is coming off a 39-point, 15-rebound, five-block performance and has been the dominant force of the series.
- Timberwolves: Ayo Dosunmu returned from injury in Game 3 but struggled, scoring 11 points on 4-of-12 shooting with four turnovers.
- Timberwolves: Jaden McDaniels and Julius Randle combined to shoot just 8-of-34 (23.5-percent) in Game 3 and are due for positive regression.
- Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards continues to carry the offensive load with 32 points and 14 rebounds in the most recent contest.
Spurs vs Timberwolves ATS and Total Picks
- ATS Pick: Minnesota +4½ (-112) - We backed Minnesota prior to Game 3, and we're inclined to do so again on Sunday. The T-Wolves couldn't find the net on Friday, but they out-rebounded San Antonio, took care of the basketball and only lost by seven despite McDaniels and Randle combining to shoot 23.5-percent. Any mild shooting bounce-back should be enough to keep this within the number.
- Total Pick: Under 216½ (-110) - With Minnesota's defense generating stops on the glass and San Antonio winning only one quarter outright in Game 3, this game projects to play in a slower, more grind-it-out style than the opening number suggested. The market has agreed, with the total dropping from 218½ to 216½ at points before settling at 217½.
Final Score Prediction
San Antonio 108, Minnesota 106
Wembanyama remains the most impactful player on the floor, and that alone tilts the math in San Antonio's favor. However, Minnesota's rebounding edge, low turnover rate, and the obvious shooting regression coming for McDaniels and Randle should keep this one tight throughout. Expect a competitive fourth quarter where the Timberwolves cover the +4½ even if they fall just short of forcing a Game 5 split.
How to Bet Spurs vs Timberwolves
Sunday's NBA playoff matchup between San Antonio and Minnesota is a perfect spot for bettors looking to take advantage of a sharp underdog with rebounding edges and shooting regression on its side. Whether you want to fade Wembanyama's narrative-driven number or back the under in a game where the total has steadily declined, there are multiple paths to value here.
If you're located in a state without traditional sportsbook access or simply prefer a low-risk way to bet on this Spurs vs Timberwolves game, social sportsbooks are a great alternative that let you play with sweepstakes-style coins and still cash out real prizes. They are available nationwide and offer competitive lines on every NBA playoff matchup.
Fliff is one of the most popular options in this space, and new users can claim a sign-up bonus by using our fliff promo code page for full details. With Game 4 expected to be tightly contested, locking in Minnesota +4½ and the under 216½ at the best available number is the smart play.
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