New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury, Picks and Prediction, Sunday, September 14, 2025
Use Code WWWC The WNBA playoffs are here, and a great first-round matchup. Read our New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury prediction along with our other best WNBA Predictions! The Mercury are the No. 4 seed as they ended the season with a 27-17 record. The Liberty are the No. 5 seed with their 27-17 record, too. The Mercury led the season series 3-1, with two of their wins coming at home. This three-game series begins with Game 1 tipping off at 5 P.M. EST.
Liberty enter playoffs as No. 5 seed
Liberty finished the regular season with a 27-17 record. They finished the year seven games back of the No. 1 seed. They struggled on the road with a 10-12 record. New York was 1-3 against the Mercury, losing both games in Arizona. They closed the regular season on a three-game winning streak. They also won five of their last seven games.
New York is led in scoring by Breanna Stewart with 18.3 points per game. Jonquel Jones is grabbing 8.1 rebounds per game to lead the roster. Sabrina Ioneascu, who is averaging 18.2 points per game, is passing for a team-high 5.7 assists per game.
New York is averaging 84.4 points per game, which ranks sixth in the league. They are shooting 45.3% from the field, ranking fourth. The Liberty are the second-best 3-point shooting team, making 35.5% from behind the arc.
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On defense, the Liberty are allowing 80.3 points per game, placing them fifth. They are forcing their opponents to shoot 42.4% from the field, ranking them third. New York is also the best 3-point defensive team, giving up 31.5% from deep.
New York is 15-27-2 against the spread this season. They are 4-17-1 against the spread when playing on the road. The Liberty are also 1-3 against the spread versus Phoenix. They are 14-20-1 against the spread as favorite. The under is 25-18-1 when Liberty have played this year. The over is 11-10-1 when New York has gone on the road. The total is 2-2 when the Liberty have faced the Mercury.
There are no injuries listed for the Liberty coming into this game.
Phoenix had New York’s number in the regular season
Phoenix is 27-17 during the regular season. They are the No. 4 seed and received it thanks to the tie-breaker. The Mercury were 3-1 when playing against the Liberty in the regular season. Phoenix closed the regular season losing three straight games. Before that run, the Mercury had won six in a row.
Satou Sabally leads the team with 16.3 points per game. Alyssa Thomas was great in the regular season grabbing a team-high 8.8 rebounds and 9.2 assists per game.
Phoenix is averaging 84.7 points per game, ranking fifth-best. They are the ninth-ranked shooting team, making 43.3% from the field. The Mercury are the sixth-ranked 3-point team, hitting 34% from deep.
On defense, the Mercury are allowing 82 points per game, placing them eighth. Phoenix are the fourth-ranked defense, giving gap 42.7% from the field and 32.1% from behind the arc.
Phoenix is 21-22-1 against the spread this season. They are 12-10 against the spread when they have played at home. The Mercury are 3-1 against the spread versus the Liberty. They are also 7-6 against the spread as an underdog. The under is 24-18-2 when Phoenix has played. The total is 2-2 during the four matchups versus Phoenix. The under is 13-12 during Phoenix home games.
DeWanna Bonner is questionable for the game. The 15th-year player averages 23.6 minutes per game, scoring 9.8 points.
New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Pick
Spread Pick for New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury
- Phoenix Mercury +1 (5 units)
Phoenix hosts New York is a great matchup in the first round of the WNBA playoffs. This is the No. 4 vs No. 5 matchup with both finishing the regular season with the same record. The Mercury won three of four games over the Liberty during the regular season. Phoenix was undefeated against the Liberty at home as they were able to dominate thanks to their defensive efficiency. They rank sixth in defensive rating, as opposed to the Liberty placing sixth. The Mercury have multiple scoring options, which will help them get this win. New York relies heavily on their two scorers with Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu. If the Mercury can slow one of them down, they will get the win. Phoenix also ended the year 12-10 against the spread at home and 7-6 against the spread as an underdog. The Liberty were poor against the spread with their road record being 4-17-1. They were also 14-20-1 against the spread as a favorite.
Take the Mercury to cover.
Over/Under Pick for New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury
- Over 163.5 (5 units)
Phoenix and New York are two of the fastest teams in the league. This game will be a track meet in the opening game of the playoffs. The Mercury ranked third in pace while the Liberty placed fourth. Both teams’ offenses ranked above average during the regular season, too. The Liberty were fifth in offensive rating while the Mercury placed seventh. This will be a fun game if you like offense.
Take the over on Sunday.
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