New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction for Saturday, April 11, 2026
Use Code WWWC The New York Yankees visit the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Saturday, April 11, at 6:10 PM ET on MLB.TV. New York enters at 8-4, leading the AL East, while Tampa Bay is 5-7, tied for fourth in the division. The Yankees lost their most recent game 1-0 to the Athletics, while the Rays fell 6-2 to the Cubs in their last outing. Take a winner home with our free MLB picks.
New York Yankees: Pitching Leading the Way Despite Recent Loss
The Yankees are coming off a 1-0 loss to the Athletics, marking their second straight defeat after winning three of their previous five games. Even during this stretch, New York has remained competitive largely because of its pitching, which has been one of the most effective units in baseball early in the season.
New York is hitting .204 as a team with a .315 on-base percentage, showing that run production has not been consistent. However, the talent is there and has produced enough to win early this season. Giancarlo Stanton is hitting .326 and continues to be one of the most reliable bats, while Aaron Judge has three home runs and seven RBI. Ben Rice has been especially productive, leading the team with 11 RBI while hitting .324 and getting on base at a high rate.
Despite the lower team average, the Yankees have shown they can generate runs through timely hitting and power. The lineup has depth with players like Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm Jr., but overall consistency remains a work in progress as the season continues.
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Injuries: Rafael Montero, Out, Anthony Volpe, Out, Carlos Rodon, Out, Gerrit Cole, Out, Travis MacGregor, Out
Tampa Bay Rays: Offense Producing, but Pitching is a Concern
The Rays lost 6-2 to the Cubs in their most recent game, giving them back-to-back losses after winning three straight. That stretch reflects a team capable of producing offensively but struggling to consistently limit runs on the mound.
Tampa Bay is hitting .253 with a .326 on-base percentage, showing more offensive consistency than New York. Chandler Simpson has been outstanding, hitting .391 and setting the tone at the top of the lineup. Jonathan Aranda leads the team with three home runs and 11 RBI, while Yandy Díaz continues to be a key contributor with a .362 average and strong on-base presence.
The lineup has depth and multiple players capable of producing, including Junior Caminero and Nick Fortes. However, the Rays’ pitching staff has struggled at times, which has made it difficult to maintain leads even when the offense performs well.
Injuries: Drew Rasmussen, Day-To-Day, Gavin Lux, Out, Austin Vernon, Out, Logan Driscoll, Out, John Rooney, Out
Pitching Matchup
New York Yankees – Max Fried
Fried is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP across 20.0 innings. He has allowed just 10 hits while striking out 14, showing strong command and the ability to limit baserunners. His consistency gives New York a clear advantage in the game.
Tampa Bay Rays – Nick Martinez
Martinez is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP over 12.0 innings. He has allowed seven hits with just one walk, demonstrating solid control. However, he has given up two home runs, which could be a factor against a power-heavy Yankees lineup.
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick
- New York Yankees
The Yankees hold the edge in this matchup due to their advantage on the mound and overall pitching consistency. Fried has been dominant early in the season, and his ability to limit baserunners should keep Tampa Bay’s offense from fully capitalizing. While the Rays have been productive at the plate, New York’s pitching gives them the upper hand to control this game and win.
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Over/Under Pick
- Under
This matchup leans toward lower scoring. Fried’s ability to control the game should limit Tampa Bay’s opportunities, while Martinez has shown enough effectiveness to keep the Yankees from generating too many runs to push the total over. With both starters capable of working multiple innings, the under is the stronger play.
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