Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Picks and Prediction for Sunday November 23, 2025
The Atlanta Falcons (3-7) head to the Superdome on Sunday to take on the New Orleans Saints (2-8) in this NFC South Falcons vs. Saints prediction.
These teams met last season in New Orleans when the Saints escaped with a 20-17 win as a 3.5-point favorite. They will also close out the regular season against each other on January 4, but for now, both squads are just trying to try and build some positive momentum.
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Atlanta turns to Cousins with Penix out for the season
Atlanta comes into this one after a brutal 30-27 overtime loss to the Panthers. Things went downhill fast after Michael Penix Jr. exited with a season-ending knee injury. Kirk Cousins came in and struggled, going 6 for 14 for 48 yards. Bijan Robinson did all he could with 104 rushing yards and two touchdowns, but the offense stalled when it mattered.
Now Cousins gets the full week of reps and will make the start. He has completed 61.5% of his passes on the year in limited action, going 32 for 52 for 250 yards with no touchdowns or picks. He’s not going to sling it all over the field, but he just needs to manage the game and lean on the rushing game led by Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.
The Falcons average 332.5 yards per game (16th), including 119.9 on the ground (13th). The passing game was 18th, averaging 212.6 yards per game, but without Penix, those numbers don't hold much weight. Defensively, Atlanta hs been strong against the pass, ranking sixth in the league, but the run defense continues to be the weak spot, coming in at 28th.
Key Injuries for Falcons:
- Michael Penix Jr. (knee), Zach Harrison (knee), Billy Bowman Jr. (Achilles), and Josh Woods (hamstring) are all out. Penix has an ACL injury and is out for the season.
- Drake London (PCL) is out until at least next week.
- Leonard Floyd (hamstring) is questionable.
Saints off a bye
The Saints were off last week after beating Carolina 17-7, but one game doesn’t fix what’s been a messy season. Their offense averages just 297.2 total yards (26th) and 15.5 points per game (30th), and turnovers have been a major issue with fifteen on the year (25th).
Spencer Rattler started the season, but the Saints have officially turned the page to 26-year-old rookie Tyler Shough out of Louisville. He’s thrown for 586 yards with three touchdowns, two picks, and a 46.9 QBR. He’s shown flashes, but nothing consistent.
Alvin Kamara leads the offense with 460 rushing yards, but he’s listed as questionable with an ankle issue. The Saints rank 28th in rushing and 20th in passing, and if Kamara is limited, that makes things even tougher.
Defensively, New Orleans is solid overall, ranking 11th in total defense and ninth against the pass, but they allow 25 points per game (22nd) and have created only five takeaways all season (25th).
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Key Injuries for Saints:
- Alvin Kamara (ankle) and Taliese Fuaga (ankle) are questionable.
- Barry Wesley (hip), Erik McCoy (biceps), and Kendre Miller (ACL) remain out.
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Predictions
Spread Pick for Falcons vs Saints:
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Falcons +2.5 (5 units)
I’m still not buying the Saints as a favorite, and I don’t care where the sharp or public money is. Atlanta’s offense is inconsistent, but the Saints shouldn’t be favored over anyone right now. Their offense is one of the worst in football, and even with the Falcons’ issues last week, I expect a sharper game with Cousins getting the full week of reps. Nothing about New Orleans laying points feels right, and I trust the Falcons more. Atlanta still has the better run game, and a defense that should force Shough into mistakes.
Total Pick for Falcons vs Saints:
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Over 40.5 (4 units)
Even though both teams have had their share of offensive issues, this number is low enough to get there. The Falcons should be able to have a big game running the ball indoors, and the Saints’ offense should look better in the dome as well, with Shough having more time to prepare.
Both quarterbacks bring turnover potential. Shough is still adjusting, and Cousins isn’t close to the player he used to be. Those short fields should turn into points
Take the over with perfect conditions.
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