Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks and Predictions for Sunday, November 1, 2026

The Falcons have won twice on the road this season. Tampa Bay hasn't won at home at all. That makes Sunday's NFC South meeting an interesting one, especially with both clubs coming off victories. Atlanta beat San Francisco 29-20 last weekend and sits tied for first in the division at 3-4. The Buccaneers are third at 2-5 following a 43-13 win over Carolina. They'll meet at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa at 1:00 pm ET on Fox. Tampa Bay is favored by 2.5 points, and the total is 44.5. Find more Sunday matchups in our free NFL picks.

Atlanta Falcons Trying to Find Some Consistency

October has brought a little of everything for Atlanta. The Falcons scored 45 points in New Orleans, won comfortably at Green Bay, then returned home and lost consecutive games to Baltimore and Chicago. Last Sunday's 29-20 victory over San Francisco finally put an end to that skid. Atlanta has been scoring regularly, but the defense has occasionally made things harder than necessary. The Falcons have allowed 173 points in seven games, almost as many as they've scored themselves.

Bijan Robinson has been doing some serious damage on the ground. He's averaging 5.4 yards per carry, and seven of his runs have gained at least 20 yards. Michael Penix Jr. has thrown nine touchdowns against only one interception, with Drake London collecting 616 receiving yards. Kyle Pitts has also caught four touchdown passes, giving Penix another option near the goal line. Robinson's running could be especially useful against Tampa Bay, allowing the Falcons to keep moving without relying entirely on the passing game.

Injuries: A.J. Terrell Jr., C.J. Henderson, Kendal Daniels, Divine Deablo and Olamide Zaccheaus are questionable.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Hoping to End Their Home Losing Streak

Tampa Bay certainly enjoyed its trip to Carolina. The Buccaneers scored 43 points and allowed just 13, a welcome change after losing 26-19 to Pittsburgh in overtime. They'd also won at Dallas earlier in October, but trips home haven't gone nearly as well. Green Bay and Minnesota both left Raymond James Stadium with victories, and the Buccaneers have now lost four straight in their own building. Sunday's meeting with Atlanta gives them another opportunity to change that record against a division opponent.

Bucky Irving has been carrying much of Tampa Bay's offense. He's gained 558 rushing yards, scored four times on the ground and added another touchdown as a receiver. Baker Mayfield has thrown three touchdown passes, although Jalon Daniels has also taken snaps at quarterback. Chris Godwin Jr. has caught 27 passes, and Emeka Egbuka has 28 receptions with two touchdowns. On defense, David Walker has four sacks. The Buccaneers need him to make Penix uncomfortable, especially when Atlanta's running game forces defenders closer to the line.

Injuries: Josh Hayes and Christian Rozeboom are out. Luke Goedeke, Emeka Egbuka and Kenny Gainwell are questionable.

Key To The Game

Robinson against Tampa Bay's defensive front is the matchup worth watching. Atlanta can be dangerous when Robinson gets into open space, and Penix has shown he can capitalize when defenses concentrate on stopping the run. Irving presents a similar problem for the Falcons. Tampa Bay's passing game hasn't produced big numbers, but the Buccaneers don't necessarily need it to if Irving keeps moving the chains. Atlanta's secondary also has injury concerns, which could give Mayfield opportunities. Whichever club controls the ground game should have an easier afternoon.

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Pick

• Atlanta Falcons +2.5 (-110)

Tampa Bay deserves credit for its win at Carolina, but the Buccaneers haven't shown they can repeat that performance at home. Atlanta has already beaten Green Bay and New Orleans on the road, and Sunday's victory over San Francisco was another encouraging result. Robinson gives the Falcons a strong running game, while Penix has generally avoided turnovers. Tampa Bay could make this close through Irving, particularly if the defense limits London. Still, I trust Atlanta's offense a little more. I'll take the Falcons with the points.

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over/Under Pick

• Over 44.5 (-102)

Atlanta's recent games have produced plenty of points. Four of the Falcons' last five contests have finished above 44.5, including Sunday's 29-20 win over San Francisco. Tampa Bay just scored 43 against Carolina, although its earlier games were considerably quieter. Robinson and Irving can both break tackles and turn ordinary runs into big gains. Penix also has London and Pitts available when the Falcons need to throw. I can see both clubs finding the end zone several times, with neither defense completely shutting down the opposing running game. Over 44.5 is my pick.