Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 28, 2025
Use Code WWWC Baltimore Ravens (1-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)
Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season is here, and in this preview, we are breaking down the marquee AFC showdown from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO, to get you the Ravens vs. Chiefs prediction.
Kansas City aims for its third consecutive straight-up and ATS victory over Baltimore. After a 17-10 win in the 2023 Championship Game at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, the Chiefs beat the Ravens 27-20 at home in Week 1 of the 2024 season.
Read more about this Ravens vs. Chiefs prediction, and check out all our NFL picks for Week 4. The kick-off is set at 4:25 PM ET, and the Ravens are 2.5-point road favorites with a total of 48.5 points.
The Ravens need more from their defense
The Baltimore Ravens (1-2; 1-2 ATS; 3-0 O/U) started the season with a heartbreaking 41-40 road loss against the Buffalo Bills. The Ravens gave up 22 points in the fourth quarter, blowing a 15-point lead. They posted 29 carries for a whopping 238 yards, Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson combined for three rushing touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough.
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The Ravens bounced back in Week 2. They cruised past the Cleveland Browns 41-17, covering a 12.5-point spread in front of the home fans. Baltimore racked up just 242 total yards and went 3-for-12 on third down, but the Ravens were 3-for-4 in the red zone, and Roquan Smith added to the scoreboard with a 63-yard fumble return.
Last week, the Ravens’ defense fell apart once more. The Detroit Lions outgained Baltimore 426-318 in total yards in a 38-30 victory at M&T Bank Stadium on Monday night. The Ravens allowed 224 rushing yards while tallying just 85 in return. Lamar Jackson went 21-of-27 for 288 yards and three touchdowns, and Mark Andrews had six catches for 91 yards and two scores.
“The biggest problem is we didn’t play good defense,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said following the Lions game. “There’s nobody in that locker room that thinks that’s good enough. That’s not who we are. It cannot be who we are. It’s not good enough, it’s not acceptable.”
DT Nnamdi Madubuike sat out Week 3 with a neck injury and has been ruled out for Sunday’s clash against the Chiefs. His absence is a huge blow for the Ravens, as Madubuike has amassed 25 sacks over the previous three seasons.
Seven players didn’t practice on Wednesday, including OLB Kyle Van Noy, DL Travis Jones, FB Patrick Ricard, and T Ronnie Stanley. They are all questionable for Week 4.
The Chiefs need more from their offense
The Kansas City Chiefs (1-2; 1-2 ATS; 1-2 O/U) opened the season with consecutive defeats against the Los Angeles Chargers 27-21 in Sao Paulo and the Philadelphia Eagles 20-17 at home. The Chiefs bounced back in Week 3, beating the New York Giants 22-9 on the road, but it wasn’t an impressive display by any stretch of the imagination.
Kansas City outgained the Giants 306-281 in total yards and won the turnover battle 2-0. Once more, the Chiefs relied on their defense. They picked off Russell Wilson twice while allowing the Giants to convert one of their 10 third-down attempts.
“Obviously, we didn’t have the start we wanted, but it’s a long season,” said linebacker Nick Bolton, who had a game-high 14 tackles against the Giants. “We’ve been searching for one win and trying to figure out how we can get this thing going. The main thing now is just keep working, keep stacking, and try to get another, then get another win.”
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 669 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception so far this season. Against the Giants, Mahomes went 22-of-37 for 224 yards and a touchdown, and he fumbled twice, as the Chiefs continued to struggle on the offensive side of the ball.
Mahomes leads the Chiefs in rushing yards with 128, which is not a good sign. Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt have combined for 48 carries and 173 rushing yards thus far, and the Chiefs tally 108.0 rushing yards per game (17th in the NFL). Tyquan Thornton leads the receiving corps with nine catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns.
WR Rashee Rice continues to serve a suspension for the first six games of the season. Fellow wideout Xavier Worthy (shoulder) was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice and should be ready to go in Week 4. Worthy missed the last two games, and his return would be a huge boost for the Chiefs’ offense.
Ravens vs. Chiefs Pick
Spread Pick for Ravens vs. Chiefs
- Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 (5 units)
The Ravens are favorites despite some serious injury worries. I don’t like what I see from their injury-depleted defensive unit, so I will take the Chiefs in Week 4. The Chiefs will be able to contain the Ravens in the trenches, which seems like a key factor in this matchup.
Last week, the Lions’ offensive line dominated the Ravens. Detroit rushed at will and didn’t allow a single sack. On the other side, Lamar Jackson was sacked seven times.
I’m not saying that the Chiefs are as good as the Lions by the line of scrimmage, but they have enough firepower to deal with the Ravens.
Over/Under Pick for Ravens vs. Chiefs
- Over 48.5 (5 units)
Since the 2015 season, the Chiefs have gone 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS against the Ravens, and five of those seven games have gone over the total. However, each of their last two dates has seen fewer than 48 points on the scoreboard.
I’m backing the Chiefs to slow the Ravens’ ground game down. On the other side, the over is 5-1 in the Ravens’ last six contests overall and 10-2 in their previous 12 showings on the road. With Madubuike out, Baltimore will struggle to stop the Chiefs on the ground and in the air. The Ravens will need to put points on the board to compete in this one. Despite his struggles over the years against the Chiefs, Lamar Jackson will give his team a chance.
The total looks like a tricky wager in this game, and the line is a sharp one. I will take the over because of the Ravens’ defense. Baltimore allows 266.0 passing yards (31st in the NFL) and 149.0 rushing yards per game (30th). The Chiefs’ offense will get things going in Week 4.
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