Bills vs. Steelers Picks and Prediction, Sunday, November 30, 2025
The Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday at Highmark Stadium in Week 13 NFL action. We have you ready to go with our Bills vs. Steelers prediction, preview, and picks. Kick-off is at 4:25 p.m. ET. Weather forecasts indicate a possibility of rain and snow with temperatures around 40 degrees.
The Bills are 3.5-point spread favorites, and the game total is 45.5 points scored.
Buffalo beat Pittsburgh 31-17 last year, covering the ten-point spread. If you want the Bills vs. Steelers prediction, read on and check out our NFL Picks to beat the sportsbooks!
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Bills need a bounce-back win
Buffalo (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, and 5-6 O/U) lost 23-19 to Houston in its previous game, failing to cover as 5.5-point favorites.
The Bills committed three costly turnovers in their loss to the Texans, as QB Josh Allen tossed two picks and posted a 26.2 QBR. He was sacked eight times and hit 12 times, as Houston's defense stole the show.
"When they hit our quarterback 12 times, I don’t like that,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said. “I don’t like that stat at all. It’s just not a healthy way to play, and it’s not a good way to keep our quarterback healthy for the rest of the season. We’ve got to play better.”
The reigning NFL MVP Allen has completed 69.7 percent of his passes this season, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. He has 2,709 passing yards, 371 rushing yards, and 28 total touchdowns. Allen's top receiving target is WR Khalil Shakir (54 receptions for 564 yards and three TDs), and RB James Cook (199 carries for 1,084 yards and eight TDs) leads the Bills' rushing attack.
Buffalo scores 28.3 points per game (5th) and averages 381.8 total yards (4th), including 234.6 passing yards (9th) and 147.2 rushing yards (1st). The Bills' defense gives up 22.9 points (17th) and 317.1 total yards (12th) per game, including 168.2 passing yards (1st) and 148.9 rushing yards (30th).
Buffalo Bills Injury Report:
Participation/Injury Report, Thursday, November 27
- OL Spencer Brown (Shoulder) - DNP. Is out.
- OL Dion Dawkins (Concussion) - DNP. Is out.
- WR Joshua Palmer (Ankle) - Limited on Friday. Is questionable.
- WR Curtin Samuel (Elbow/Knee) - DNP. Is out.
Can Aaron Rodgers save the day for Pittsburgh?
Pittsburgh (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS, and 6-5 O/U) lost 31-28 to Chicago last game, failing to cover as 2.5-point underdogs.
The Steelers have dropped two of their last three games and are 2-4 ATS in their previous six. They dominated on the ground against the Bears (36 carries for 186 yards), but QB Mason Rudolph, filling in for starter Aaron Rodgers, only contributed 171 yards, averaging less than five yards per attempt.
“There's never been panic here,” Rudolph said. “We've been Pittsburgh Steelers long enough to know we've been behind, down in the division, and up. It's a natural ebb and flow of the season. I'm very confident in our guys to keep fighting and end up on top.”
Rodgers leads the Pittsburgh passing attack with 1,969 yards, 19 touchdowns, and seven picks. He has completed 66.4 percent of his passes, averaging 6.8 yards per pass. The vet's top receiving targets are WR DK Metcalf (42 receptions for 573 yards and five TDs) and TE Pat Freiermuth (26 receptions for 298 yards and four TDs). The Steelers' run game is led by RB Jaylen Warren (141 carries for 604 yards and three TDs).
Pittsburgh scores 24.9 points per game (10th) and averages 292.2 total yards (27th), including 195.1 passing yards (22nd) and 97.1 rushing yards (27th). The Steelers' defense gives up 23.9 points (19th) and 364.5 total yards (28th) per game, including 258.7 passing yards (31st) and 105.7 rushing yards (14th).
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Pittsburgh Steelers Injury Report:
Participation/Injury Report, Thursday, November 27
- OT Broderick Jones (Neck) - DNP. Is out.
- DT Derrick Harmon (Knee) - DNP. Is out.
Bills vs. Steelers Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Bills vs. Steelers
- Buffalo -3.5 (5 Units)
The well-rested Bills were outplayed by Houston's vaunted defense last game, but they will flip the switch against Pittsburgh's soft stop unit. The Steelers, who are especially weak against the pass, gave up 33 points to the Bengals, 35 to the Packers, and 31 to the Bears last week. Allen will be much more productive through the air, potentially hooking up a few times with veteran speedster WR Brandin Cooks, who was recently signed after being released by New Orleans. Pittsburgh has several star players on its defense in Cam Heyward, T.J. Watt, and Jalen Ramsey, but the unit as a whole has been unreliable to get off the field (26th in opponent third-down conversion percentage).
The uncertainty involving Rodgers' playing status doesn't inspire confidence in Pitt's chances of pulling off the upset, either. Rudolph was ineffective in his place last week, and while A-Rod has been solid this season, he isn't the game-changer he once was. If the Bills can clean up their turnover problem, they will put too many points on the scoreboard for the Steelers to cover the number.
Over/Under Pick for Bills vs. Steelers
- Over 45.5 (4 Units)
The field conditions aside, I lean towards the over in Sunday's big-time showdown between Buffalo and Pittsburgh. I expect the Bills to score at least a couple of first-half touchdowns, pushing the Steelers into a higher-tempo attack to keep pace. While both teams have defensive playmakers, neither unit has been elite this season. These defenses also encourage a faster pace, as Pitt's opponents average the seventh-fewest seconds per play and Buffalo's opponents average the tenth-fewest. The visitors will take a commanding early lead, putting the home team in desperation mode, encouraging a higher-scoring outcome. Bet on the over at 45.5 total points!
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