Broncos vs. Chiefs Preview, Picks and Prediction, Thursday, December 25, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Denver Broncos will visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day at Arrowhead Stadium for Week 17 NFL action. We have you ready to go with our Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction, preview, and picks. Kickoff from KC is at 8:15 p.m. ET.
The Broncos are 13-point spread favorites, and the game total is 36.5 points scored.
Denver beat Kansas City 22-19 on November 16, as Wil Lutz hit a 35-yard field goal as time expired to secure the division win. The Broncos narrowly outgained the Chiefs and won the turnover battle. KC is 7-3 straight-up and 2-8 against the spread in its last ten matchups with Denver. The under went 7-3 in those games. If you want the Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction, read on and check out our NFL Picks to beat the sportsbooks!
Broncos need a bounce-back win
Denver (12-3 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, and 7-8 O/U) lost 34-20 to Jacksonville last Sunday, failing to cover as 3.5-point spread favorites. The Broncos have won nine straight of their last ten games, covering the spread four times during that stretch.
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Denver outgained Jacksonville by over 100 yards in the last game, but committed two costly turnovers in the home loss. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence terrorized the Broncos' defense, scoring four touchdowns (three passing and one rushing) to lead his team to the upset win. It was Denver's first loss since Week 3 and its first home loss since Oct. 13, 2024. QB Bo Nix passed for a career-high 353 yards, but wasn't as sharp as usual.
The Oregon product Nix has passed for 3,608 yards with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this season, completing 63.2 percent of his passes. He has also rushed for four scores. His top receiving targets are WR Courtland Sutton (69 receptions for 972 yards and seven TDs) and WR Troy Franklin (61 receptions for 692 yards and six TDs). With J.K. Dobbins (153 carries for 772 yards and four TDs) out for the rest of the season, Denver's run game is paced by rookie RB RJ Harvey (117 carries for 469 yards and seven TDs).
The Broncos score 24.1 points per game (13th) and average 352.1 total yards (10th), including 233.9 passing yards (9th) and 118.3 rushing yards (19th). Denver's defense allows 19.7 points (5th) and 291.6 total yards (4th), including 201.4 passing yards (10th) and 90.2 rushing yards (1st).
Denver Broncos Injury Report:
- WR Pat Bryant (concussion) and LB Justin Strnad (foot) are questionable to play on Thursday vs. the Chiefs.
Chiefs' season is over, but how much fight will they show?
Kansas City (6-9 SU, 5-10 ATS, and 4-11 O/U) lost 26-9 to Tennessee on Sunday, failing to cover as 3.5-point 'dogs. KC has dropped four straight and five of its last seven games.
The Chiefs were held to 133 total yards (3.1 yards per play) in their previous game, as they were just 1-for-9 on third down. The Titans held the football for 17 more minutes, averaging 7.1 yards per pass and 4.1 yards per rush. It's been a rough couple of weeks for Kansas City, which has lost starting QB Patrick Mahomes and backup QB Gardner Minshew to ACL injuries.
With Mahomes and Minshew sidelined, KC will start 28-year-old Chris Oladokun against Denver. The South Dakota State product completed 11 of his 16 passes for 111 yards against the Titans, his only game action of the season. TE Travis Kelce is the team's leading receiver (68 receptions for 803 yards and five TDs), and RB Isiah Pacheco (109 carries for 430 yards and one TD) paces the KC run game.
Kansas City scores 22.5 points per game (20th) and averages 342.9 total yards (15th), including 233.2 passing yards (10th) and 109.7 rushing yards (22nd). The Chiefs' defense surrenders 19.6 points (4th) and 307.9 total yards (10th) per game, including 204.5 passing yards (12th) and 103.4 rushing yards (8th).
Kansas City Chiefs Injury Report:
- CB Trent McDuffie (knee), WR Rashee Rice (concussion), OL Jaylon Moore (knee), LB Leo Chanal (shoulder), OT Jawaan Taylor (elbow), WR Tyquan Thornton (concussion), S Nazeeh Johnson (shoulder), and DT Derrick Nnadi (illness) are questionable to play vs. the Broncos.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Broncos vs. Chiefs
- Kansas City +13 (4 Units)
Denver needs a win to keep its division title dream alive after last weekend's upset loss to Jacksonville. The Chiefs are out of the playoff hunt, but that doesn't mean this Christmas Day clash will be an easy win for the visitors. The home team is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Titans and isn't likely to lay down against a division rival. The KC defense has been stout at Arrowhead this year, surrendering just 15 PPG and holding a few of the NFL's top offenses under 20. Denver certainly didn't play dominantly on the offensive side of the ball on Sunday, and it hasn't been a high-scoring team on the road this season. As long as Oladokun takes good care of the football and plays a solid game-manager role, Kansas City can cover the 13-point spread.
Over/Under Pick for Broncos vs. Chiefs
- Under 36.5 (5 Units)
Nix's play can be characterized as erratic. He's in for a challenge on a short week against a Chiefs defense that should be eager to make a statement after a poor performance. I don't expect a team that's been defined by its championship mindset to roll over for a division rival, especially at home in a primetime game. The Kansas City offense will likely continue to sputter, though. The Chiefs won't ask too much from the inexperienced Oladokun, and their run game has been below-average this season. With the home team opting for an elementary game plan, Denver should have no problem getting stops. The Broncos are motivated, especially after Sunday's uncharacteristic performance, and they are elite in several key areas. They have held eight opponents to 20 or fewer points this season, including the Mahomes-led Chiefs.
The under is 9-1 in KC's last ten games. Bet on another low-scoring Chiefs game on Thursday!
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