Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons Picks and Prediction for Monday, October 13, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s an interconference battle in week 6 of the NFL schedule in Hotlanta as the Buffalo Bills travel to take on the Atlanta Falcons Monday night, and we have you covered with our Bills vs. Falcons prediction. Buffalo comes in off a 23-20 home loss to New England in their previous game last Sunday night, losing outright as an eight-point favorite. Atlanta comes in off a bye week. The Falcons downed Washington 34-27 at home in their previous contest, September 28, covering the line as a 2.5-point favorite. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Falcons own a 7-6 advantage, though the Bills have won two straight in the series, including a 29-15 home triumph in the most recent matchup on January 2, 2022. Read more about this Bills vs. Falcons prediction! Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our NFL Picks!
Bills Looking to Rebound From First Loss
Buffalo suffered their first loss of the season as they were beaten at home by New England in an uncharacteristically sloppy performance. The Bills fell to 4-1 on the year and own a one-game lead for the top spot in the AFC East standings. Against New England, Buffalo trailed 6-3 at the half, took a 10-6 lead in the third quarter and trailed 20-10 with 12:10 remaining in the game. The Bills rallied to tie the game with 2:17 to play but gave up the winning field goal with 15 seconds remaining. Buffalo held a 363-338 advantage in total offense, picked up 25 first downs while allowing 21, owned a 34:31 to 25:29 margin in time of possession but turned the ball over three times while forcing one turnover in the game.
On the year, the Bills are tied for 7th in the league in passing offense with an average of 241.4 yards per game and 2nd in rushing with an average of 154.4 yards per contest. Buffalo is third in the league in scoring offense by putting up 30.6 points per contest and they are 17th in the league in scoring defense by allowing 22.6 points per game. Josh Allen is 107 of 152 passing for 1,217 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions on the season. He is second on the team on the ground with 212 rushing yards and three scores. Mitch Trubisky (one of two, 32 yards) has seen limited action. James Cook leads the run game with 90 carries for 450 yards and five scores. Ray Davis (13 carries, 30 yards), Ty Johnson (10 carries, 53 yards) and Elijah Moore (five carries, 25 yards, TD) have also seen work on the ground. Khalil Shakir is leading the team as he has hauled in 22 passes for 235 yards and a pair of scores. Joshua Palmer (12 receptions, 174 yards), Cook (12 receptions, 89 yards), Dalton Kincaid (20 grabs, 287 yards, three TD) and Keon Coleman (21 grabs, 226 yards, two TD) are solid options in the aerial assault. Matt Prater is 15 of 15 on extra point attempts and 10 of 11 on field goal attempts with a long of 52 this season.
Linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral), defensive tackle T.J. Sanders (knee) and safety Damar Hamlin (pectoral) have been ruled out for this contest. Kincaid (oblique) and defensive tackle Ed Oliver (ankle) were limited Thursday and Friday, while wide receiver Curtis Samuel (ribs/neck) was limited Thursday and did not practice Friday. Watch for updates as we get closer to kickoff.
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Atlanta Rested and Ready
Atlanta comes in off a bye week last week and hopes to carry the momentum of a win over Washington into this game. The Falcons enter this game 2-2 on the year and stand second in the NFC South, trailing the 4-1 Buccaneers. Against Washington, Atlanta took a 10-0 lead after the opening quarter and didn’t let Washington get even the rest of the way. The Falcons led 17-10 at the half and didn’t let the Commanders closer than four in the second half en route to the win. Atlanta rolled up a 435-294 edge in total offense, picked up 24 first downs while allowing 17 and held a 34:15 to 25:45 margin in time of possession in the game. Both teams turned the ball over once in the contest.
This year, the Falcons enter Week 6, 13th in passing offense with 226.3 yards per game, while they are 6th in rushing offense by picking up 136.5 yards per contest. Atlanta is 27th in the league in scoring offense with an average of 19 points per game and stands 15th in the league by allowing 21.5 points per contest. Michael Penix Jr. is 78 of 125 passing for 918 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions while getting sacked five times this season. He adds 31 yards and a score on the ground. Kirk Cousins (five of seven, 29 yards) is the backup. Bijan Robinson leads the run game with 64 carries for 314 yards and a score. Tyler Allgeier (43 carries, 155 yards, TD) and Nathan Carter (seven carries, 46 yards) are next in line. Drake London leads the team with 24 catches for 269 yards plus a score. Kyle Pitts Sr. (20 receptions, 205 yards, TD) and Robinson (18 grabs, 270 yards, TD) are the only other players with more than 80 receiving yards on the year. Younghoe Koo was two of two on extra points and two of three on field goal attempts with a long of 41 before being cut. John Parker Romo is five of five on extra points and seven of nine on field goal attempts with a long of 54 on the year.
On the injury front, cornerback Clark Phillips III (triceps/illness) and receiver Darnell Mooney (hamstring) both failed to practice Thursday or Friday. Mooney has been officially ruled out for this contest. Cornerbacks A.J. Terrell (hamstring) and Natrone Brooks (concussion/shoulder) along with receiver KhaDarel Hodge (groin) were limited both days. Defensive back Billy Bowman Jr. (knee), safety Xavier Watts (ankle) and defensive lineman LaCale London (tricep) were each limited Friday. Watch for updates closer to kickoff.
Bills vs. Falcons Pick
Bills vs. Falcons Spread Pick
- Bills -4.5 (4 units)
Buffalo played their worst game of the season last week against New England, and it still took a 52-yard field goal in the final seconds to beat them. The Falcons may be reste,d but they still have some injury concerns to deal with heading into this game. Atlanta has defended the pass well this season, though facing JJ McCarthy, Bryce Young and Marcus Mariota in the last three games does not prepare a team for what Allen can do to an opposing defense. Sean McDermott said the Buffalo offense tried getting “a little too cute” last week. Look for more of a return to form for the Bills, which means plenty of points on the scoreboard. The Falcons simply can’t keep up. As a result, take Buffalo and give the points in this contest.
Bills vs. Falcons Over/Under Pick
- Over 49.5 (4 units)
Buffalo has seen the over post a 3-2 mark in their five games this season. The Bills have played just one road game so far, staying under the number in a one-sided win over the Jets. Last week marked the first time all season that Buffalo didn’t hit the 30-point threshold. Atlanta has stayed under the number in three of their four games this year. The Falcons stayed under the number in their opener against Tampa Bay at home, but went over in their previous game against Washington. Buffalo puts up their share of points and the Falcons do enough themselves to help this game over the number.
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