Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos Picks and Prediction for Saturday, January 17th, 2026
Use Code WWWC The Buffalo Bills (12-5, 8-9 ATS, 9-8 O/U) meet the Denver Broncos (14-3, 7-9-1 ATS, 7-10 O/U) in the AFC Divisional playoff on Saturday afternoon, and we have everything you need to know, and the prediction. The Bills went 12-5 on the season and earned a win against the Jaguars last week. The Broncos won their division as the #1 seed and had a bye last week. These squads met in last year’s wildcard game in a bout that the Bills won 31-7.
Can the Bills come away with a road win on Saturday afternoon? Check out the Bills vs. Broncos prediction. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NFL Betting Picks!
Bills Defeat Jaguars in Wildcard
The Buffalo Bills are two wins away from a trip to the Super Bowl. Buffalo has made it to the divisional playoff in six straight seasons. Buffalo went 5-1 in its last six games of the season, but it wasn’t enough to win the division ahead of the Patriots. The only defeat in that 5-1 span was against the Eagles. The Bills are back on the road again in this one. Buffalo is 6-3 on the road this season, including a defeat against the Texans and a win against the Steelers. The Bills won their last regular-season game against the Jets.
Buffalo had a tough task in the AFC Wildcard last week. They managed a 27-24 road win against the Jaguars in a game that had the Bills marked as the 2.5-point dogs. They scored a late touchdown by Allen to win it with one minute remaining in the game. The Bills have covered the spread in two of their past five games.
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Josh Allen continues to have mammoth success in the playoffs. The 29-year-old was dominant last week, posting 273 passing yards and one TD against a good Jaguars defense. Allen has recorded 3668 passing yards and a 25:10 TD to INT ratio. Buffalo has a potent running game led by James Cook. The 26-year-old RB is having a monster season. He has surpassed 100 yards on nine occasions. Cooks has yielded 46 rushing yards last week and has 1621 rushing yards on the season.
The receiving core does not have a star but compensates with depth. Khalil Shakir is solid. The 25-year-old WR has posted 50 or more yards on seven occasions. He was key in the win last week, delivering 82 receiving yards. Dalton Kincaid sustained a foot injury against the Jaguars and is questionable for this one, so keep an eye out. The veteran tight end has 571 receiving yards. The Buffalo offense issued 340 total yards in the win last week.
The Bills' defense was mediocre against Jacksonville last week. They had some difficulty containing the run, giving up 150+ rushing yards and 359 total yards. Jordan Poyer is out with an injury. This is a big hit. Poyer is a threat in the secondary, making 85 tackles. The Bills' pass defense is rated 1st in the NFL, while the rush defense can be a weakness, standing 28th.
Buffalo is averaging 28.3 points on the season, ranking them fifth. The Bulls are conceding an average of 21.5 points, placing them 12th in the NFL.
Broncos Rested After Bye Week
The Denver Broncos are eager to get back in action after enjoying their bye in the first round of the playoffs as the #1 seed last week. Denver was ousted by the Bills in the AFC wildcard game last year. The Broncos are enjoying a great season led by their stifling defense. The Broncos have lost just three games this season, dropping meetings against the Colts, Chargers, and Jaguars.
Denver completed the season with two straight wins, beating the Chiefs along with a 19-3 home win against the Chargers to cover the huge 15.5 point spread. Denver stands at 8-1 at home this season. The Broncos have covered the spread in two of their past five games.
Bo Nix is proving to be one of the best QBs in the NFL. The 25-year-old has a tendency to throw picks but is steady. Nix has posted at least 250 passing yards in six games this season. He has posted 3931 passing yards, accompanied by a 25:11 TD to INT ratio. He has added 356 rushing yards.
Denver has a decent running game. They do not run a ton. J.K. Dobbins is having an outstanding season, but is dealing with an injury and is not ready for this one. R.J. Harvey will be counted on. The 24-year-old RB has reached 50 yards in five games. Harvey has 540 rushing yards on the season. The receiving core is a strength. Courtland Sutton is enjoying another superb season. The 30-year-old WR has reached 100 yards twice and leads the squad with 1017 receiving yards. Troy Franklin is next up with 709 yards. The Denver offense is averaging 324 yards per game.
The Broncos' defense will be key in the playoffs. This is an elite unit that ranks in the top five in many categories. They conceded just 217 yards against the Chargers and are keeping opponents to an average of 278 yards per game. The pass defense is seventh, while the rush defense is among the best, coming in at 2nd. Pat Surtain II is one of the best corners in the NFL. He has broken up 12 passes.
Denver is scoring an average of 23.6 points on the season, marking them 15th. The Broncos are keeping opponents to an average of 18.3 points, placing them 3rd in the NFL.
Bills vs. Broncos Pick
Spread Pick for Bills vs. Broncos
- Buffalo Bills +1 (5 units)
The Buffalo Bills are a confident group after eliminating the Jaguars on the road. The Bills have built up a ton of playoff experience in the past few years and are not intimidated by playing on the road. They beat the Jaguars on the road last week. The Denver Broncos are obviously a great team, but Bo Nix has only played in one playoff game in his career.
Buffalo ousted the Broncos in the AFC wild card last year. Josh Allen has been a beast in the playoffs. He has posted a 26:4 TD to INT ratio in his playoff career. One area the Broncos can be beaten is in the air. While the pass defense is strong, it is rated seventh. Allen recorded 272 passing yards in the win against the Broncos in last year’s playoffs.
Denver will pass more than run, which is good news for the Bills. Their top strength is the pass defense, conceding an average of 156 passing yards per game, ranking #1 in the entire NFL. Also, Denver is without its #1 running back, J.K. Dobbins, and is leaning on the rookie R.J. Harvey. Go with the Bills.
Over/Under Pick for Bills vs. Broncos
- Over 46 (5 units)
I expect plenty of scoring. Buffalo scored 27 points on the road against the Jaguars last week. Josh Allen is an even bigger threat in the playoffs. He posted 273 passing yards in the win against the Jaguars last week. The Broncos have squandered 26 and 34 points in two of their past three home bouts.
In addition, Denver has a quick offense. They stand 4th in the NFL in offensive plays per game. The Bills’ defense is good but not great. The group has squandered 23 or more points in four of their past six road games. The Bills' defense was exposed at times against Jacksonville last week, surrendering 359 total yards. The over is 6-3 in the Bills’ past nine games in January.
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