Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans Picks and Prediction for Thursday, November 20th, 2025
The Buffalo Bills (7-3, 5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U) take on the Houston Texans (5-5, 4-6 ATS, 3-6-1 O/U) in an AFC showdown on Thursday evening, and we have you covered with the prediction. The Bills posted a home win against the Buccaneers last week. The Texans earned a road win against the Titans in their previous action. The Texans issued a 23-20 home win against the Bills last season.
Can the Texans climb above the .500 mark with a home win on Thursday evening? Check out the Bills vs. Texans prediction. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NFL Betting Picks!
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Bills Answer with Big Home Win
The Buffalo Bills are targeting a second straight win. Buffalo is targeting first in the division, but it won’t be easy. They stand 1.5 games behind the Patriots at the top of the AFC East and play the Patriots next month. Buffalo stands at 3-2 in its past five games. They were dealt a disappointing 30-13 road loss to the Dolphins two weeks ago. The Bills had more defensive issues last week, but managed a 44-32 home win against the Buccaneers in a game that had the Bills marked as six-point favorites. The Bills have covered the spread in three of their past five games.
Josh Allen is having another outstanding season. He has not been the issue in the defeats, either. Allen has reached 250 passing yards in five games this season, including 317 yards last week. Allen has posted 2456 passing yards and an 18:7 TD to INT ratio on the season.
The running game is also thriving. James Cook III is enjoying the best season of his career. The 26-year-old RB has surpassed 100 yards on the ground in five games this season. He has amassed 968 rushing yards. The receiving core has strong depth. Khalil Shakir was quiet last week, yielding three yards. He leads the squad with 454 receiving yards. Dalton Kincaid did not practice on Monday due to a hamstring injury and is questionable. The tight end has 448 yards. The Buffalo offense managed 414 yards last week. They are averaging 387 yards per game.
The Bills' defense has been shaky. They could not contain the Dolphins and conceded 367 total yards against the Tampa Bay offense last week. They are conceding 322 yards per game. Safety Cole Bishop leads the teams with 54 tackles. The pass defense is second, while the defense is a weakness, standing 30th.
Buffalo is averaging 29.2 points on the season, ranking them fifth. The Bills are conceding an average of 22.9 points, placing them 15th.
Key Injury Report for Bills:
- WR Curtis Samuel (elbow/neck) is questionable.
- TE Dalton Kincaide (hamstring) is questionable. Has 36 catches for 448 yards with 4 TDs
- CB Christian Bedford (groin) is questionable Has 33 tackles and one sack.
- CB Taron Johnson is questionable. Has 31 tackles and 2 passes defensed.
- DE Joey Boasa is questionable. Has four sacks.
- WR Joshua Palmer is questionable. Has 25 catches for 251 yards.
- LB Terrell Bernard is questionable. Had 11 tackles and two passes defended last week.
Houston Attempts to Climb Above .500 Mark
The Houston Texans are attempting to climb above the .500 mark in this one. Houston is out of contention in the division but has a decent chance in the wildcard standings. The Texans stand at 3-2 in their past five games. This includes a narrow defeat against the Broncos and a 36-29 home win against the Jaguars two weeks ago. Next, the Texans earned a 16-13 road win against the Titans last week, but did not cover the five-point spread. The Texans have covered the spread in two of their past five games.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +1,250.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,149.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,082.00 |
| 4 |  Bruce Marshall | +1,006.00 |
| 5 |  Brick Haus Sports | +672.00 |
CJ Stroud sustained a concussion two weeks ago and did not play in the win last week. The star QB did not practice on Monday and is going to miss this one. Stroud has recorded 1702 passing yards and an 11:5 TD to INT ratio. Davis Mills will be under center again. Mills has been sharp, amassing 274 passing yards in the win last week, and has 726 passing yards and a 3:1 TD to INT ratio.
Houston does not run a whole lot. Nick Chubb has reached 50 yards in just three games this season. The 29-year-old RB has 419 rushing yards on the year. The receiving group is a strength. Nico Collins has been dominant. The 26-year-old WR has netted 136 and 92 yards in his past two games. He has recorded 642 receiving yards on the season. Dalton Schultz had 51 yards last week and has earned 489 yards. The Houston offense reported 315 yards last week. This brings their season average to 330 yards per game
The Texans' defense is among the best in the entire NFL. The group has been at its best in recent games. They kept Tennessee to 229 total yards last week. They are holding opponents to only 258 yards per game. Linebacker Azir Al-Shaair has been a beast, making 65 tackles and deflecting six passes. The pass defense is marked 3rd while the rush defense is also stingy, coming in at third.
Houston is scoring an average of 22 points, ranking them 22nd. The Texans' defense is keeping opponents to an average of only 16.3 points, leading the entire NFL.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 | Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 | Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Key Injury Report for Houston:
- QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) is out. Starting QB
- OT Tytus Howard (knee/ankle) is questionable.
- RT Trent Brown (hand/knee) is questionable
- DE Will Anderson (ankle) was limited in practice and is questionable. Has 30 tackles and 8 sacks.
- TE Dalton Schultz (shulder) is questionable. Has 51 catches for 489 yards.
- WR Nico Collins (ankle) is questionable. Leading receiver with 49 catches for 642 yards and four TDs.
Bills vs. Texans Pick
Spread Pick for Bills vs. Texans
- Houston Texans +5 (5 units)
The Buffalo Bills have been shaky recently. They are only 3-3 in their past six games and dropped their previous road game against a weak Dolphins squad. While they managed a home win last week, Tampa Bay was able to score 32 points. The Houston Texans are in a groove, winning three of their past four games.
Furthermore, the Texans are proving to be one of the best defensive teams in the entire NFL. This is one of Allen's biggest challenges of the season against a dominant secondary. The Texans are keeping opponents to 171 rushing yards per game, marking them 3rd in the NFL. Buffalo is second in the NFL in rushing yards, but it has a daunting task against a Texans rush defense that also stands 3rd. Also, while Houston QB Stroud is questionable with a concussion, Mills has been just as dangerous, posting 290 and 274 passing yards in his past two games against the Jaguars and Titans.
Over/Under Pick for Bills vs. Texans
- Over 43.5 (5 units)
I expect a barrage of scoring in this one. Buffalo has the power to solve any defense. They are piling on the points, scoring an average of 31 points in their past four games, including 40 against the Panthers and 44 points against the Bucs’ defense in the win last week.
In addition, Houston has been a huge threat at home, netting 26 or more points in three of their last four home games, including 36 points against the Jaguars a few weeks ago. The Bills' defense has been exposed in these past two games, surrendering 30 and 32 points against the Dolphins and Buccaneers.
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