Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Picks, Prediction, Odds and Line Movement for Sunday, January 11, 2026
It’s an AFC Wild Card Playoff matchup in the Sunshine State as the Buffalo Bills travel to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday afternoon and we have you covered with our Bills vs. Jaguars prediction. Buffalo closed the regular season with a 35-8 home win over the Jets last Sunday, covering the line as a 13.5-point favorite, in their previous contest. Jacksonville rolled to a 41-7 home win over Tennessee in their regular season finale last Sunday, covering the line as a 13.5-point favorite, in their previous contest. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, each team has recorded 10 victories, though the Bills rolled to a 47-10 home win in the most recent matchup September 23, 2024. Jacksonville has won both postseason matchups, including a 10-3 home win, in the AFC Wild Card Playoff January 7, 2018 in the most recent meeting. Who moves on and who goes home? Read more about this Bills vs. Jaguars prediction! Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our NFL Picks!
Sign Up for Winners and Whiners News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Buffalo Seeking First Road Playoff Win Since 1992
Buffalo routed the Jets to finish the regular season with five wins in their last six games in what could be the final game at Highmark Stadium. The Bills closed the regular season 12-5 and ended up second in the AFC East standings. Against the Jets, Buffalo rested their stars but cruised to the win anyway behind stellar work from their backups. The Bills scored a touchdown after taking the opening kickoff and never looked back. The Bills led 7-0 after the opening quarter and 21-0 at the half en route to the win. Buffalo rolled up a 470-122 advantage in total offense, picked up 30 first downs while allowing nine and dominated time of possession by a 38:20 to 21:40 margin. Neither team turned the ball over in the game.
On the year, the Bills are 15th in the league in passing offense with an average of 216.6 yards per game and 1st in rushing with an average of 159.6 yards per contest. Buffalo is fourth in the league in scoring offense by putting up 28.3 points per contest and they are 12th in the league in scoring defense by allowing 21.5 points per game. Josh Allen is 319 of 460 passing for 3,668 yards with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the season. He is second on the team on the ground with 579 rushing yards and 14 scores. Mitch Trubisky (25 of 35, 313 yards, four TD) has seen limited action. James Cook leads the run game with 309 carries for 1,621 yards and 12 scores. Ray Davis (58 carries, 275 yards) and Ty Johnson (50 carries, 200 yards, three TD) have also seen work on the ground. Khalil Shakir is leading the team as he has hauled in 72 passes for 719 yards and four scores. Joshua Palmer (22 receptions, 303 yards), Dawson Knox (36 grabs, 417 yards, four TD), Cook (33 receptions, 291 yards, two TD), Dalton Kincaid (39 grabs, 571 yards, five TD) and Keon Coleman (38 grabs, 404 yards, four TD) are solid options in the aerial assault. Matt Prater is 46 of 49 on extra point attempts and 18 of 20 on field goal attempts with a long of 52 this season. Michael Badgley was two of four on extra point attempts and one of one field goal attempts with a long of 41 on the year.
Key Injury Report for Bills:
- TBD
Jaguars Look to Earn Ninth Straight Win
Jacksonville ran their win streak to eight games as they routed Tennessee in their regular season finale to win the AFC South crown. The Jaguars finished the regular season 13-4 and won the division by one game over the Texans. Against Tennessee, Jacksonville gave up the game’s opening score but took control from that point. The Jaguars reeled off 41 unanswered points to turn the game into a rout. Jacksonville owned a 319-194 advantage in total offense, held a 24-10 advantage in first downs, held a 33:03 to 26:57 margin in time of possession and forced the game’s lone turnover, which was a pick-six.
On the season, Jacksonville is 12th in the league in passing offense with 222.3 yards per contest and 20th in rushing offense with 115.1 yards per game. The Jaguars are 6th in the league in scoring offense as they average 27.9 points per contest and stand 8th in scoring defense by allowing 19.8 points per contest. Trevor Lawrence has completed 341 of 560 passes for 4,007 yards with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on the year. He adds 359 yards plus nine scores on the ground. Nick Mullens (three of three, 19 yards) is the backup. Travis Etienne Jr. leads the Jaguars on the ground with 260 carries for 1,107 yards and seven scores. Bhayshul Tuten (83 carries, 307 yards, five TD) and LeQuint Allen (23 carries, 94 yards) are net in line this season. Brian Thomas Jr. was second on the team with 48 catches for 707 yards plus two scores on the season. Parker Washington (58 catches, 847 yards, five TD), Travis Hunter Jr. (28 grabs, 298 yards, TD), Etienne Jr. (36 receptions, 292 yards, five TD), Jakobi Meyers (75 grabs, 835 yards, three TD), Dyami Brown (20 receptions, 227 yards, TD) and Brenton Strange (46 catches, 540 yards, three TD) are solid targets this season. Cam Little has hit 50 of 51 extra point attempts and 30 of 34 field goal attempts with a long of 68 this season.
Bills vs. Jaguars Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,494.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,859.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +1,788.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,428.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,400.00 |
Moneyline Pick for Bills vs. Jaguars
- Bills -110 (4 units)
Buffalo has the advantage of having playoff experience on their side entering this game, though they have to find a way to win on the road. The Jaguars were hot down the stretch though it remains to be seen how they fare against an explosive offense. Jacksonville was stingy against the run this season but they will be tested against the league’s top rushing attack, led by the league’s leading rusher in Cook. We haven’t seen Lawrence necessarily thrive in the postseason, with as many interceptions (five) as TD passes in his two playoff games. That’s one more pick than Allen has tossed in 13 playoff games (25 TD passes, 4 INT) in his career. In crunch time, back the team with experience on their side to pull out the win.
Over/Under Pick for Bills vs. Jaguars
- Over 51.5 (4 units)
Buffalo has seen the under post a 9-8 mark in their 17 games in the regular season. On the road this season, the Bills have stayed under the mark in five of their eight contests, though they closed the year with four overs in their final five games. Jacksonville has seen the over post a 10-7 mark in their 17 games, though the home/road splits are interesting. The Jaguars have gone over the total in six of their eight road games but stayed under the mark in five of their nine home games. Jacksonville went over the number in seven of their last 10 games, including four of their final five. Look for this game to wind up over the mark in a shootout.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Bet $5 & Get $200
