Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins, Preview, Odds, Picks and Prediction, Sunday, November 9, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s an AFC East showdown on Sunday, Nov. 9. Read our Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins prediction along with our other NFL Picks! The Bills are second in the division with a 6-2 record. They are coming off their best win of the season over the Chiefs. The Dolphins continue to slide down the standings with their 2-7 record. Miami has lost four of their seven games by 10 points or more. Buffalo defeated Miami 31-21 in Week 3 action. These two teams will meet with kick-off set for 1 P.M. EST.
Bills vs. Dolphins Matchup
Buffalo earns big home win over Kansas City
Buffalo is 6-2 overall this season. They are in second place in the AFC East behind the Patriots, who have a 7-2 record. The Bills are 2-1 when they have played on the road. Since the bye week, Buffalo has won back-to-back games over Carolina and Kansas City.
In their last game, the Bills defeated the Chiefs 28-21 in a massive game on Sunday, Nov. 2. The Bills trailed 10-7 halfway through the second quarter, but they punched back, scoring back-to-back rushing touchdowns to grab a 21-13 halftime lead. The Bills were able to hang on as their defense was great. The Bills forced a turnover and held Kansas City to 3-for-13 on third down.
Quarterback Josh Allen threw for 273 yards on 23-for-26 passing and a touchdown. It was a big game for James Cook, who rushed for 114 yards on 27 carries. Dalton Kincaid led the receiver room with 101 yards on six catches and one score.
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Allen has thrown for 1,833 yards and is averaging 229 passing yards per game. He has 13 touchdowns and four picks on the season. Cook has been one of the best running backs in the league. He has rushed for 867 yards and seven touchdowns.
On defense, the Bills are led in tackles by safety Cole Bishop with 41. Joey Bosa is shining with four sacks on the year, too. The defense has also forced just nine turnovers.
In Week 3, the Bills defeated Miami 31-21 in a game that was closer than expected. The Bills scored 10 points in the final seven minutes of action to earn the home win. Miami went 10-for-15 on third down, which kept them in the game and extended drives all game long.
Buffalo is averaging 29.4 points per game, which ranks third best. They are the best rushing attack in the league with 161.5 rushing yards per game. Buffalo is averaging 224 passing yards per game, placing them 14th.
On defense, Buffalo is allowing 20.9 points per game, placing them ninth best. They are the second-best pass defense, allowing 169.9 yards per game through the air. The Bills are the fifth-worst rush defense, giving up 141.4 yards per game.
The Bills are 4-4 against the spread this season. They are 2-1 against the spread when they have played on the road. Buffalo is 0-2 against the spread when they have been double-digit favorites. The Bills are 1-2 against the spread when they have played against divisional opponents. The total is 4-4 when the Bills have played. The under is 2-1 when Buffalo has played on the road.
Defensive end AJ Epenesa and linebacker Shaq Thompson are out. Corner Taron Johnson, defensive tackle DaQuan Jones, wide receiver Josh Palmer and corner Christian Benford are all questionable.
Miami with one lone win at home this season
The Dolphins are 2-7 this season and they are just ahead of the Jets, who are 1-7, for the worst record in the AFC East. Miami has a 1-3 record when playing at home this year. They have lost four of their last five games entering this week, with the lone win over Atlanta in Week 8. Four of the team’s seven losses have come by 10 points or more.
In their last game, the Dolphins lost 28-6 at home to Baltimore on Thursday, Oct. 30. Miami held an early 3-0 lead, but the team could not bounce back after the Ravens' offense started to find a rhythm. The Dolphins turned the ball over three times, and they went just 2-for-12 on third down in the loss.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw for 261 yards on 25-for-40 passing with zero touchdowns and one interception. De’Von Achane led the team with 67 yards on 14 carries. Jaylen Waddle finished with a team-high six catches for 82 yards.
Tagovailoa has thrown for 1,779 yards and has completed 68% of his passes. He’s averaging the fewest yards per pass since his rookie season. He has thrown 15 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the season, too. He’s already thrown the second-most interceptions on the season, too. Achane is leading the running back room with 606 yards, too.
On defense, linebacker Jordyn Brooks leads the team with 93 tackles. Bradley Chubb has a team-high four sacks. The defense has forced just seven turnovers, too.
Miami is averaging 20 points per game, which ranks seventh-worst. They are averaging 194.2 passing yards per game, placing them 23rd. The Dolphins also rank 25th in rushing yards, averaging 97.2 per game. The Dolphins have turned the ball over 15 times, which is the most in the league.
On defense, the Dolphins are allowing 198.1 passing yards per game, which ranks 10th. They are the third-worst rush defense, giving up 145.6 yards per game on the ground. They are giving up 27 points per game, placing them seventh-worst. At the trade deadline, they weren't very busy, but did move Edge rusher Jaelan Phillips to the Eagles for a third-round pick.
Miami is 4-5 against the spread this season. They are 2-2 against the spread when they have played at home. The Dolphins are 2-1 against the spread when they have been seven points or more underdogs. The over is 6-2-1 when Miami has played this year. The over is 3-1 when Miami has played at home. The over is 5-1-1 when the total has been set at 49 points or less.
As of Thursday, corner Rasul Douglas, wide receiver Dee Eskridge and linebacker Chop Robinson all missed practice. Linebacker Bradley Chubb, safety Ashtyn Davis, running back Ollie Gordon II, tight end Julian Hill, safety Ifeatu Melifonwu and defensive tackle Zach Siefler were all limited in practice.
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Picks
Bills vs Dolphins Spread Pick
- Buffalo Bills -10 (5 units)
The Bills will believe that they did not play their best against the Dolphins in Week 3. Buffalo needed a late push to score 10 unanswered points in the final quarter. But, confidence should be high for the Bills as they defeated the Chiefs at home last week. The biggest key for the Bills will be the run game. They have one of the best running offenses behind James Cook, while the Dolphins have the third-worst rush defense. The Bills will control the line of scrimmage in this game while the defense also feasts.
Miami continues to lose games simply because of their ineffectiveness on third down and turning the ball over. The Dolphins hung around in Week 3 because they were able to keep the sticks moving. It’s an area they were really bad in against the Ravens last week when they went 2-for-12 on third down. The Bills will put them in long yardage situations and force turnovers. The Dolphins have turned the ball over more than any other team in the league.
Take the Bills to cover.
Bills vs Dolphins Over/Under Pick
- Over 49.5 (5 units)
The Dolphins have found ways to score points at home. They have scored 27 points in three of their four home games. Miami should be able to score as the Bills are allowing 20 points per game. Buffalo is going to put up a big spot against a poor Miami defense that gave up 31 points to the Browns earlier this season. Expect a high-scoring game with Josh Allen slinging the ball around the field. The over is 3-1 when Miami has played at home. The over is 5-1-1 when the total has been set at 49 points or less for Dolphins games.
Take the over on Sunday.
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