Carolina Panthers vs. New England Patriots Picks and Prediction, Sunday, September 28, 2025

In this Panthers at Patriots prediction, the Panthers travel up the coast to take on the Patriots in Foxboro in an interconference showdown. The Panthers are 1-2 on the season after upsetting the Falcons last Sunday at home. The Patriots are also 1-2, coming off a disappointing home loss to the Steelers last week. The opening kick is scheduled for 1:00 pm EST. If you need quality winners, this is the ultimate site for NFL Picks.

Carolina surprises the Falcons

The Carolina Panthers were off to a 0-2 start, and appeared on their way to 0-2 as underdogs to the visiting Falcons last week. Instead, the Panthers played their most complete game in several seasons and throttled the Falcons 30-0. The Panthers now hope to build on that momentum as they face the Patriots on the road.

“When you score in every phase, you give yourself a great chance to win,” Panthers coach Dave Canales said.

Quarterback Bryce Young was both efficient and effective in leading the Panthers’ attack. He finished 16-of-24 for just 121 yards but protected the football well, not turning the ball over all game. Young led the team right down the field on its first possession, finishing off the drive with a 7-yard touchdown run. Running back Chuba Hubbard ran the ball 17 times for 71 yards, and his backup, Rico Dowdle, had 30 yards rushing on 10 carries, including a rushing touchdown. The Panthers committed one turnover, on a fumble, and kept Young relatively clean. He was sacked just once in the contest.

The Panthers’ defense came up big on Sunday. They forced three turnovers in the game, a fumble and two interceptions. Cornerback Chau Smith-Wade had the big play, returning his interception for a touchdown early in the third quarter to give the Panthers a commanding 17-0 lead. In all, the Panthers held the Falcons’ potent offense to 332 yards and just 4.7 yards per pass play.

The Panthers are now ranked 19th in the NFL in points per game. They are 25th in rushing and 24th in passing. The Panthers have done a good job of protecting Young, ranked 8th in the NFL in sacks allowed up until this point. The team is just 18th in red zone offense. Defensively, the Panthers are 8th in points allowed per game. They are 30th against the run and 12th against the pass. They have struggled to get to the quarterback, ranked last in the league in sacks per game. They are seventh in the NFL in red zone defense. The Panthers are 20th in the league in turnover margin, ninth in penalties per game, and 10th in time of possession.

Key Injuries: WR Jalen Coker is out. LB DJ Wonnum, WR Tetairoa McMillan, and WR Xavier Leggette are questionable. TE Ja’Tavion Sanders is doubtful.

Uneven start for the Patriots

New Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel knew it wasn’t going to be easy when he took over the reins of the franchise that he won three Super Bowls with as a player. The Pats are now 1-2 after three games, losing both of their home games by a touchdown and being plagued by turnovers. Last week, the Patriots turned the ball over five times, including twice in the red zone, in a 21-14 loss to the Steelers.

By all accounts, the Patriots could easily be both 3-0 and 0-2 at this point. They have been tortured by ill-timed turnovers that could have swung the game in their favor in both home games this season. On Sunday, quarterback Drake Maye turned the ball over twice, an interception deep in the red zone, and a fumble to thwart a drive early in the second half. He finished the game 28-of-37 for 268 yards and two touchdowns, both to tight end Hunter Henry. Maye didn’t get the support he needed out of his backs, with Rhamondre Stevens fumbling twice, including at the goal line, and Antonio Gibson fumbling once.

The Patriots' defense held up relatively well despite being hamstrung by the offense’s five turnovers. They held the Steelers to just 17 first downs in the game and just 203 yards of total offense. Linebacker Robert Spillane picked off Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers to set the Patriots up deep in the Steelers’ territory. The Patriots’ pass rush was held in check, however, failing to record a sack for the first time this season.

The Patriots are ranked 21st in the NFL in points per game this season. They are 21st in rushing and seventh through the air. The team has struggled to keep Maye upright, ranked just 28th in sacks allowed per game. The Patriots are 7th in the NFL in red zone offense. On the defensive end, the Patriots are ranked 18th in points allowed this season. They are an impressive second against the run, but just 29th against the pass. They have been ineffective in the red zone defensively, ranked just 29th in the league. They have been able to get after the quarterback, ranked sixth in the league in sacks per game. The Patriots are 26th in turnover margin, 27th in penalties per game, and seventh in time of possession.

Key Injuries: G Layden Robinson and LB Jahlani Tavai are out. LB K’Valon Chaisson, CB Christian Gonzalez, and C Jared Wilson are questionable.

Panthers vs. Patriots Pick

Spread Pick for Panthers vs. Patriots

• Patriots -5.5 (4 units)

It is a testament to the Patriots’ talent that, despite coming off a loss and turning the ball over five times, they are now a near-touchdown favorite over the Panthers. The Patriots can be expected to protect the ball better this week and will likely lean more on their ground game against a Panthers team that ranks just 30th in stopping the run. The backfield trio of Stevenson, Gibson, and rookie TreyVeyon Henderson should get plenty of carries to test the defense. That will open up the passing game for Maye. Maye has orchestrated an offense that ranks a solid 9th in red zone offense. The game will likely come down to the Patriots’ ability to get to Young and force mistakes. After being held in check last week, expect the Patriots’ pass rush to return in full force.

Take the Patriots -5.5

Over/Under Pick for Panthers at Patriots

• Over 43.5 (4 units)

This game feels like a sneaky over play. In the Patriots' lone win, they poured in 33 points against the Dolphins on the road. A lot of that damage was done by running back Stevenson, who should thrive against the Panthers’ 30th-ranked defense. The Panthers have given up a shade under four touchdowns in each of their two losses this season. I’m banking on the shutout being more of an aberration for the Panthers’ defense, as well as the Patriots’ five turnovers, which likely stalled three potential scoring drives.

Take the over 43.5