Cleveland Browns vs. Detroit Lions Picks and Prediction, Sunday, September 28, 2025

The Cleveland Browns (1-2) head to Ford Field on Sunday to take on the Detroit Lions (2-1). Both of these teams enter Week 4 coming off very different types of wins.

As a home underdog, Cleveland stole the game late last week against Green Bay with 13 points in the final 3:38. The victory was sealed on a 55-yard field goal by rookie Andre Szmyt. As for Detroit, they upset Baltimore on Monday night with a 38-30 road victory.

If you are struggling to pick winners, you've come to the right place. We have the strongest NFL Predictions.

How far can the defense carry them

The Cleveland Browns gained respect last week by upsetting Green Bay, led by their defense. Through the first three games, the Browns' defense ranks No. 1 overall,  No. 1 against the run (57.3 ypg), and No. 2 against the pass, while sitting tied for 18th in scoring defense (20.0 points per game). As impressive as the numbers are, we’ve seen this show before. In 2023, Cleveland led the NFL in total defense overall, yet ranked only 12th in yards allowed per game on the road. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett remains the anchor with 7 tackles for loss and 4 sacks.

Cleveland’s offense is among the league’s worst, ranking 22nd overall, 29th in rushing, 16th in passing, and 30th in scoring (15.0 ppg). In Week 1 they outplayed the Bengals but lost 17–16, largely impacted by the kicking game. In Week 2, Cleveland went on the road and suffered a 41–17 blowout loss to Baltimore.

On the season, quarterback Joe Flacco has thrown for 631 yards with 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, while being sacked 6 times. Sunday will mark his 200th career appearance, but pressure is mounting with rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders waiting in the wings.

The bright spots have come from rookies. RB Quinshon Judkins ran for 94 yards and his first touchdown last week, and former Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr. leads all rookies with 15 receptions, while LB Carson Schwesinger is tied for second among rookies with 21 tackles.

On the injury reports, CB Denzel Ward, DT Shelby Harris, and DT Mike Hall all missed Wednesday’s practice, and RT Dawand Jones is done for the season.

Lions upset Ravens on Monday night

Detroit has rebounded nicely since a Week 1 loss at Green Bay (27–13). In Week 2, they crushed Chicago 52–21 behind Jared Goff’s 334 passing yards and Jahmyr Gibbs’ 94 rushing yards. Then came Monday night, when the Lions went into Baltimore and handed the Ravens a 38–30 defeat in a game where they ran for more than 200 yards and sacked Lamar Jackson seven times. That win pushed them to 2–1, and they look every bit like a Super Bowl contender. David Montgomery rushed for a career-high 151 yards, while Gibbs added 67 against the Ravens.

Goff has been highly efficient, completing nearly 78% of his passes for 761 yards, with seven touchdowns and just one interception. He hasn’t been sacked in the past two games. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is off to a hot start with 237 yards and four touchdowns on 20 catches. The run game is thriving too, led by Montgomery, who had two touchdowns against Baltimore and Gibbs, who has added three touchdowns this year.

Defensively, Detroit ranks 13th overall, 11th against the run, and 15th against the pass, but they’ve already piled up 11 sacks in three games. Aidan Hutchinson has recorded at least one QB hit in 18 straight games. DE Al-Quadin Muhammad produced 2 1/2 sacks against the Ravens.

Cleveland Browns vs Detroit Lions Predictions

Browns vs Lions ATS Pick

• Lions -10 (4 units)

The Lions’ style makes them a dangerous team to fade in this spot. Campbell is not afraid to go for it on fourth down, and Detroit rarely takes its foot off the gas. Since 2022, Detroit is an NFL-best 19–11 ATS as a home favorite (63.3%), and Cleveland is just 6-12-1 ATS as a road underdog over the same time frame.

The Browns’ defense could keep this interesting early, but the lack of a consistent passing game and pass protection will cause the defense to be on the field too long and eventually wear down.

Expect the Lions to separate in the second half and cover the big number with a two-touchdown win.

Browns vs Lions Total Pick

• Over 44.5 (5 units)

Detroit has scored 90 points in its last two games and has one of the NFL's most explosive offenses. Goff, Montgomery, Gibbs, and St. Brown are rolling, and that spells trouble for a Cleveland team ranked 29th in yards per play.

Cleveland should contribute just enough for the total. Judkins brings life to the running game, and Flacco will likely rack up passing attempts while trailing.

I'll take the over with the Lions winning 31-20.