Colts vs. Chiefs, Odds, Preview, Picks and Predictions, Sunday, November 23rd, 2025
The Indianapolis Colts (8-2) and the Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) will battle in a high-stakes AFC matchup on Sunday afternoon in this Colts vs. Chiefs prediction. These teams have not met since back in 2022, when the Colts won by three at home. Indianapolis had the bye last week after previously playing overseas against Atlanta and sneaking out a 31-25 victory as 5.5-point favorites. Kansas City just lost their second straight game, going down to Denver 22-19 on the road as 4.5-point road favorites. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST and can be found regionally on CBS. See below for our Colts vs. Chiefs prediction, and start winning big with our best Free NFL Picks.
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Indianapolis Battles for One Seed
The Indianapolis Colts have a realistic shot at finishing first in the AFC this season, which would give them the only bye in the postseason in the AFC. The Colts have raced out to a surprising 8-2 start in the AFC, with their only two losses of the season coming on the road against the Rams and Steelers. Indianapolis had a week off to get healthy after winning in overtime in Berlin against Atlanta. In that game, the Colts got 255 yards and a touchdown from Daniel Jones in the win.
Jones has been a welcome surprise for the Colts this season, as he has reinvented himself after his career with the Giants in New York. So far this season, he is averaging 265.9 passing yards per game while completing 69.9% of his passes on the year. He has a 15-7 TD-INT ratio on the season. Jones can move when he needs to, but he has only 143 rushing yards on the season. Their top back is Jonathan Taylor, who is also an MVP candidate, as the 26-year-old back leads the NFL in rushing yards with 1,139 and also has the most touchdowns with 15. Taylor had an absurd game against the Falcons, finishing with 244 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
Tyler Warren has been their top target in the passing game, as the rookie tight end leads the team with 617 receiving yards on his 50 catches and three touchdowns. Alec Pierce has been their top receiver with 585 yards on the year. Their defense has 29 sacks on the year, led by defensive end Laiatu Latu with five. They have ten interceptions as a unit, and the secondary just traded for Sauce Gardner to boost their pass defense. The loss of DT DeForest Buckner (neck) could be an issue against strong offenses with his tremendous size (6-7, 295) and ability to rush the passer from the interior.
Injury Report for Colts:
- Out: CB Charvarius Ward, DT DeForest Buckner, QB Anthony Richardson
- Questionable: DE Tyquan Lewis
Chiefs Sense Danger
The Kansas City Chiefs dynasty is in jeopardy this season, as they have a 5-5 record and will need to battle one of the top AFC teams on Sunday. The road has not been easy, as they just lost back to back games on the road against the Broncos and the Bills. Regardless, most fans still believe Patrick Mahomes and company will be able to turn it around, but that will have to be seen. In their last game, Mahomes had 276 passing yards and a touchdown pass in their close loss against Denver.
Mahomes is trying to climb the all-time mountain of NFL quarterbacks, and can take a step in the right direction if he takes this 5-5 team on a deep playoff run. So far this season, Mahomes is passing for 262.5 yards per game with an 18-6 TD-INT ratio while completing 64.5% of his passes. He is a mobile quarterback who often holds off on scrambling until big games, but he does have 288 rushing yards on the season this year. The Chiefs' backfield has not been littered with stars this season, but Kareem Hunt is still their lead back with 353 yards and six touchdowns on the year.
Travis Kelce is their 36-year-old tight end, but he is still the most productive pass catcher on the team. Kelce has 631 receiving yards to lead the team, and has found the endzone four times this season. Their defense has 22 sacks on the year, led by defensive end George Karlaftis with five. Their defensive unit has six interceptions from six different players.
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Injury Report for Chiefs
- Out: RB Isaih Pacheco
- Questionable: WR Xavier Worthy
Colts vs. Chiefs Picks
Spread pick and prediction for Colts vs. Chiefs
- Chiefs -3.5 (5 units)
There is a shocking statistic to back up this bet, as the Chiefs are likely in a good spot here. There have been 14 instances over the past ten seasons where an eight-win team has taken on a five-win team, with the five-win team being listed as the favorite. In all 14 games, the five-win team won the game, and they covered in 12 of the 14 outings. This is a great trend for the Chiefs bettors, but we also need to acknowledge that one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL has his back against the ropes against a Daniel Jones-led Indy team. The Chiefs still have life and will get the win and cover here.
Take the Chiefs to win and cover.
Over/Under Pick for Colts vs. Chiefs
- Under 49.5 (4 units)
These two AFC playoff contenders will battle their way to a low-scoring game, as that is what the trends will project for Kansas City. The Chiefs are known to be a high-scoring offense, but the results have shown that they have gone under in each of their last five games. Kansas City is at a point in their season where they will be willing to play conservatively and will be willing to scratch and claw for a win against this Indianapolis team. The Colts are not going to ask Jones to air it out all game in this big matchup, which will result in a low-scoring game that hits the under.
Take the under.
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