Colts vs. Jaguars Picks and Prediction for Sunday, December 7, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Jacksonville Jaguars will host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday at EverBank Stadium in Week 14 NFL action. We have you ready to go with our Colts vs. Jaguars prediction, preview, and picks. Kick-off is at 1:00 p.m. ET. Weather forecasts indicate a possibility of rain with high humidity.
The Colts are 1.5-point spread favorites, and the game total is 47.5 points scored.
This is the first meeting of the season between these AFC South division opponents. The teams split their two matchups last season, with both home teams winning. Jacksonville is 6-4 straight-up and 8-2 against the spread in its last ten games against Indianapolis. The total went over in six games. If you want the Colts vs. Jaguars prediction, read on and check out our NFL Picks to beat the sportsbooks!
Colts are trending down
Indianapolis (8-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS, and 6-6 O/U) lost 20-16 to Houston last Sunday, failing to cover as three-point spread favorites. The Colts have dropped three of their previous four games after starting the NFL season 7-1. They scored 20 or fewer points in all four of their losses.
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Indy struggled to move the chains against Houston, converting only 3 of their 10 third downs. They were also 0-for-2 on fourth down and 2-for-4 in the red zone. The Colts still had an opportunity to complete a late comeback, but WR Josh Downs dropped a catchable third-down ball on their final drive. The Texans were in control for most of the afternoon, jumping out to an early lead and winning the time of possession battle by nearly ten minutes.
“Sometimes you win the tight games, but when you lose the tight games, it's frustrating because you're like ‘Shoot, we could have had that,’” Colts coach Shane Steichen said. “You look back, it's three or four plays when you lose the tight ones, so we've got to find a way to get those three or four plays when it is a tight game.”
QB Daniel Jones has completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 3,041 yards with 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He averages 8.1 yards per pass and 253.4 yards per game. The Duke product's top receiving target is WR Alec Pierce (33 receptions for 689 yards and two TDs), and RB Jonathan Taylor (226 carries for 1,282 yards and 15 TDs) leads the Colts' run game.
Indianapolis scores 29.8 points per game (1st) and averages 375.4 total yards (4th), including 241.0 passing yards (7th) and 134.4 rushing yards (6th). The Colts' defense allows 20.8 points (10th) and 344.5 total yards (20th) per game, including 246.3 passing yards (27th) and 98.3 rushing yards (7th).
Indianapolis Colts Football Injury Report:
- Starting CB Sauce Gardner (calf) is out.
Jaguars are trending up
Jacksonville (8-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS, and 6-6 O/U) beat Tennessee 25-3 last weekend, covering the spread as six-point favorites. The Jaguars have won three straight and four of their previous five games.
Jacksonville handled Tennessee from the opening kickoff, outscoring the home team 18-3 in the first half. They outgained the Titans by nearly 100 yards despite an ineffective running game (2.6 YPC) and won the turnover battle (+2 margin). Tennessee rushed for 67 yards and averaged just 3.0 yards per pass.
“We’re giving ourselves an opportunity to play meaningful games in November and December, and ultimately that’s all you can ask for in this league," Jaguars head coach Liam Coen said. “The rest of the way you've got competitive, meaningful football games.”
QB Trevor Lawrence has completed 59.7 percent of his passes for 2,636 yards with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He averages 6.7 yards per pass and 219.7 yards per game. The Clemson product's top receiving target is WR Brian Thomas Jr. (32 receptions for 448 yards and one TD), and RB Travis Etienne Jr. (181 carries for 843 yards and five TDs) leads the Jags' run game.
Jacksonville scores 24.3 points per game (11th) and averages 326.0 total yards (19th), including 202.8 passing yards (21st) and 123.3 rushing yards (11th). The Jaguars' defense allows 21.1 points (12th) and 312.5 total yards (11th) per game, including 230.1 passing yards (22nd) and 82.4 rushing yards (1st).
Jacksonville Jaguars Football Injury Report:
- Starting safety Andrew Wingard, DT Arik Armstead, WR Parker Washington, OT Walker Little, and P Logan Cooke are questionable to play. DE Travon Walker, OT Chuma Edoga, and OT Patrick Mekari are out.
Betting Trends for Colts vs. Jaguars
Colts are:
- 2-9 on ATS last 11 in series.
Jags are:
- 6-1 Under last 7 at home.
- 5-0 Over last 5 against Colts.
Colts vs. Jaguars Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Colts vs. Jaguars
- Jacksonville ML (5 Units)
Betting Trends: The Jaguars have been tough to beat at home (4-2 SU), and the Colts have struggled on the road (2-3 SU). Jacksonville is also 4-1 SU in its last five games against AFC South opponents, while Indianapolis has lost ten straight road games against Jacksonville (including the 2016 London game).
These teams are heading in different directions. With Jones hampered by a fractured fibula, the Indianapolis offense has been less productive recently, and I don't see that changing on Sunday. Jacksonville boasts the best run defense in the NFL, and if it can bottle up the league's leading rusher, Taylor, the visitors will be too reliant on Jones. That's a concern, as he has historically struggled against good defenses, compiling a 4-11-1 SU record in outdoors games against teams allowing under 20 PPG. He's also 1-10-1 SU in November or later against defenses allowing 22.0 PPG or less.
There's always the chance Indy flips a switch this week and gets back to winning football, but I won't bet on that. It's Jaguars ML for me on Sunday.
Over/Under Pick for Colts vs. Jaguars
- Under 47.5 (4 Units)
Sunday's weather forecast indicates a high possibility of rain and high humidity. That will hinder the passing games, which haven't been efficient anyway. Jones' completion percentage has dropped recently, as his lack of mobility has limited his ability to move around and make throws on the run or scramble. Lawrence has completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes this season, allowing opposing teams to lock in on the run, slowing down a Jags' ground game that was more effective earlier in the season. Jacksonville can't keep up with Indianapolis offensively on paper, but the Colts' offense has been much less productive recently (20 PPG or fewer in three of their last four games).
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