Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears Prediction and Picks - September 21, 2025

NFL action on Sunday afternoon, and we have a Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears prediction locked and loaded for you. The Cowboys come in off a thrilling 40-37 win over the Giants to move to 1-1 on the year. The Bears are at 0-2, and last week they were blasted 52-21 by the Lions. Can the Bears grab their first win of the year? Can Dallas build off their win against the Giants? Read on to see our Cowboys vs Bears prediction.

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Dallas Slips By The Giants

Dallas enters Week 3 fresh off a wild 40–37 overtime win against the Giants, where Dak Prescott threw for 361 yards and 2 TDs on a whopping 52 attempts. The offense came alive in the second half, scoring 30 points after intermission, and showed off its full arsenal—CeeDee Lamb hauled in 9 catches for 112 yards, Jake Ferguson added 78 yards, and Javonte Williams rushed for 97 yards and a score. The Cowboys now rank top 5 in total offense and scoring, averaging 30.0 points per game, and they’ve leaned heavily on tempo and spacing to stretch defenses thin. With George Pickens emerging as a red zone threat and KaVontae Turpin returning to practice, Dallas has the firepower to challenge any secondary.

But defensively, it’s been a mess. The Cowboys are allowing 30.5 points per game, ranking 28th in scoring defense, and have surrendered 404 yards per game, including 283 through the air—third-worst in the NFL. The pass rush has been inconsistent, and the secondary is banged up: DaRon Bland is out with a foot injury, and Trevon Diggs missed practice earlier this week due to illness. The run defense hasn’t been much better, giving up 121 yards per game and struggling to get off the field on third down. If Dallas wants to avoid a shootout in Chicago, they’ll need a bounce-back effort from Micah Parsons and better discipline—16 penalties for 148 yards through two games is unsustainable.

Still, the Cowboys have the edge in experience and execution. They’ve won four of their last five against Chicago, including a 49–29 blowout in their last meeting. Prescott has historically played well at Soldier Field, and with Cooper Beebe expected to return at center, the offensive line should be more stable. If Dallas can protect the ball and avoid early defensive lapses, they’re well-positioned to control tempo and keep Caleb Williams on the sideline.

Another Slow Start By Da Bears

The Bears are reeling after a 52–21 beatdown in Detroit, where they gave up points in every quarter and allowed 177 rushing yards on 30 carries. Rookie QB Caleb Williams showed flashes, throwing for 207 yards and 2 TDs, but was sacked four times and struggled to sustain drives after a strong first quarter. The lone bright spot was rookie WR Rome Odunze, who exploded for 7 catches, 128 yards, and 2 TDs, showing elite separation and body control. D’Andre Swift added 63 rushing yards and a score, but the offense has lacked rhythm and protection—Chicago ranks 27th in pass blocking efficiency, and injuries to Kiran Amegadjie and T.J. Edwards have thinned the trenches.

Defensively, it’s been a nightmare. The Bears rank dead last in defensive DVOA, allowing 39.5 points per game, and their secondary is in shambles. Jaylon Johnson is likely out with a groin injury, Kyler Gordon hasn’t played all season, and Tyrique Stevenson and Nahshon Wright are now tasked with containing Lamb and Pickens. The pass rush has been nonexistent, and the Bears have forced just one turnover through two games. If they can’t generate pressure or disguise coverage, Prescott could pick them apart early and often. Chicago’s best hope is to lean on tempo and misdirection, using Williams’ mobility and Odunze’s explosiveness to keep pace.

Despite the 0–2 start, there’s urgency in Chicago. Head coach Ben Johnson is still searching for his first NFL win, and the Bears have shown flashes of offensive creativity. If Williams can avoid turnovers and the defense can force a few third-and-longs, they could hang around. But with Dallas bringing one of the league’s most balanced attacks and the Bears still figuring out their identity, this feels like a game where Chicago needs near-perfect execution to pull off the upset.

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears Pick

Cowboys vs Bears Spread Pick

• Dallas -1 (5 Units)

Dallas -1 is a strong play with multiple trend angles and matchup advantages pointing toward value on the road favorite. The Cowboys are 7–1 ATS after facing the Giants, a spot where they’ve historically carried offensive momentum and urgency into the next game. They’re also 10–1 ATS as road favorites after allowing 35+ points, showing a consistent ability to rebound from defensive lapses with focused game plans and sharper execution. Coming off a 40–37 overtime win, Dak Prescott is in rhythm, and the offense is clicking—CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, and George Pickens all posted 75+ yards last week, and Javonte Williams added balance with nearly 100 on the ground. With Cooper Beebe returning at center and KaVontae Turpin back in the mix, Dallas has the weapons and protection to exploit Chicago’s battered secondary.

The Bears, meanwhile, are in a brutal ATS stretch. They’re 0–9 ATS after allowing 35+ points vs. a conference opponent, and just 1–7 ATS at home vs. teams below a .667 win percentage—a profile that reflects poor defensive recovery and underperformance in winnable spots. Chicago gave up 52 points to Detroit last week and ranks 32nd in defensive DVOA, with multiple starters out or limited. Rookie QB Caleb Williams has shown flashes, but he’s been sacked seven times and pressured on nearly 40% of dropbacks. If Dallas can generate early pressure and force Williams into quick reads, they’ll control tempo and field position. With the Cowboys bringing one of the league’s most balanced attacks and Chicago still figuring out its identity, this sets up as a game where Dallas can cover the short number and extend its ATS dominance in this spot.

Cowboys vs Bears Over/Under Pick

• Over 50.5 (4 Units)

Over 50.5 is a strong lean in Cowboys–Bears, with both historical trends and current form pointing toward a shootout. Dallas is 11–4 to the Over in its last 15 matchups against NFC South opponents, consistently cashing high totals when facing fast-paced, offensively tilted teams. More importantly, the last eight meetings in this series have all gone Over, with an average of 58.3 points per game—nearly a full touchdown above the posted number. Both teams are built for fireworks: Dallas is averaging 30.0 PPG, while Chicago is allowing 39.5 PPG, and both defenses rank bottom five in yards per play allowed. With explosive weapons on both sides and two quarterbacks capable of pushing tempo, this sets up as a high-scoring affair with plenty of big-play potential.