Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Pick and Prediction for Sunday January 4 2026
The Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1) travel to MetLife Stadium for a season finale against the New York Giants (3-13).1 While the Giants have long been eliminated from playoff contention, the Cowboys are also playing for pride after being mathematically eliminated from the postseason following a difficult December. Dallas has dominated this rivalry recently, winning nine consecutive games against New York, and enters as a 3.5-point favorite. For expert analysis and daily wagering insights on the full slate of NHL action, be sure to check out the latest free NFL picks over at Winners and Whiners.
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Cowboys: Playing for a .500 Finish
Dallas enters Week 18 coming off a 30-23 Christmas Day victory over the Washington Commanders. The focus for head coach Brian Schottenheimer has been on "finishing strong," though there is speculation that backup QB Joe Milton could see significant snaps if Dak Prescott is pulled early to avoid injury. Prescott has had another statistically impressive year with 4,482 yards and 30 touchdowns, largely fueled by his connection with George Pickens (1,420 yards).
The Cowboys' offense will be short-handed in the backfield, as leading rusher Javonte Williams (1,201 yards) and backup Malik Davis have both been ruled out. This leaves a major void in the running game, likely forcing Dallas to activate Phil Mafah from the reserve list. Defensively, Dallas has struggled all year, ranking near the bottom of the league in opponent success rate and EPA per play, which could leave the door open for a Giants upset.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,494.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,859.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +1,788.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,428.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,400.00 |
Giants: The Jaxson Dart Era Begins
The Giants snapped a nine-game losing streak last week with a dominant 34-10 win over the Raiders.8 Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart has shown flashes of brilliance since taking over, accounting for multiple touchdowns in nine of his 11 starts. Dart’s dual-threat ability (48 rushing yards and 2 TDs last week) poses a unique challenge for a Cowboys defense that has been vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks.
New York will be without their top offensive weapon, Wan’Dale Robinson (1,014 yards), who is out with a rib injury. They are also missing key defensive starters like Jevon Holland and Cor'Dale Flott.11 However, the Giants' pass rush, led by Brian Burns (16.5 sacks), remains elite and will look to harass a Dallas offensive line that has been forced into several late-season rotations due to injuries.
Analysis & Betting Picks
Cowboys vs Giants ATS Pick
- Spread: New York Giants +3.5 (-115)
The Giants are playing with house money and a rookie quarterback eager to prove he is the future of the franchise. Dallas is missing its top two running agents and may choose to rest Prescott in the second half. Given how poorly the Cowboys' defense has played on the road (3-5), Jaxson Dart should be able to keep this game within a field goal or even secure a narrow home victory to end the season.
Cowboys vs Giants Total Pick
- Total: Under 49.5 (-105)
The total has dropped since opening, and for good reason.12 Both teams are missing their primary offensive engines (Williams for Dallas, Robinson for New York). While the Cowboys' defense is shaky, the Giants' offense has struggled to find consistency for most of the year. In a chilly MetLife Stadium environment with potential "evaluation mode" play-calling in the second half, this game feels like a 23-20 type of affair that stays under the total.
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