Denver Broncos vs. Washington Commanders Picks and Prediction for Sunday, November 30, 2025
Denver Broncos (9-2) vs. Washington Commanders (3-8)
Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season brings Sunday Night Football from Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD, so we have prepared the Broncos vs. Commanders prediction and the latest odds update to get you covered.
The Broncos take on the Commanders for the first time since September 17, 2023, when Washington outlasted Denver 35-33 as a 4-point road underdog. The Commanders are 5.5-point home underdogs this time around, while the total is set at 43.5 points. Both teams are coming off byes.
Read more about this Broncos vs. Commanders prediction, and check out all our NFL picks for Week 13. Sunday Night Football kicks off at 8:20 PM ET.
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The Broncos continue to roll
The Denver Broncos (9-2; 5-6 ATS; 3-8 O/U) are undefeated since Week 3, when they suffered a 23-20 defeat at the Los Angeles Chargers. During their eight-game winning streak, the Broncos have covered the spread on five occasions while allowing just 16.0 points per game.
Denver is coming off a bye. Two weeks ago, the Broncos outlasted the Kansas City Chiefs 22-19 as 4-point home underdogs. Denver outgained Kansas City 342-311 in total yards and won the turnover battle 1-0. Wil Lutz made all five of his field-goal attempts, while Ja’Quan McMillian had a couple of sacks and tackles for loss.
Bo Nix threw for 295 yards in Week 11. The Broncos posted just 59 rushing yards on 21 carries, as their ground game struggled without J.K. Dobbins, who’s on the IR with a foot injury. Dobbins has done a great job for the Broncos this season, rushing 153 times for 772 yards and four touchdowns.
It’s RJ Harvey’s backfield in Dobbins’ absence. Harvey, the second-round pick from the 2025 NFL Draft, has only amassed 244 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns across 11 games, but he’s caught 28 passes for 195 yards and four touchdowns.
Nix has rushed for 213 yards and three touchdowns while throwing for 2,421 yards, 18 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Troy Franklin and Courtland Sutton have combined for 1,158 yards and nine touchdowns.
The Broncos score 23.4 points per game (tied for 15th in the NFL) and allow 17.5 points in return (3rd). Their defense ranks third in rushing yards (88.5 per game) and sixth in passing yards (185.8). Denver leads the league in sacks (49).
The Commanders are playing for pride
The Washington Commanders (3-8; 3-8 ATS; 5-5-1 O/U) are coming off a bye, too. They’ve dropped six consecutive games while going 0-6 against the number. Given their injury problems, it’s fair to say that the Commanders’ season is already over.
Jayden Daniels (left elbow) practiced in a non-contact jersey on Wednesday, and it’s unlikely he will play against Denver, according to the Commanders' head coach, Dan Quinn. Terry McLaurin was limited in practice, but is expected to play in Sunday’s clash against the Broncos. The Commanders have 11 players on the IR, including Dorance Armstrong, Marshon Lattimore, Trey Amos, and Austin Ekeler.
Daniels missed five games this season, including the previous two losses against the Detroit Lions 44-22 at home and the Miami Dolphins 16-13 in overtime in Madrid, Spain. Marcus Mariota is expected to get another starting call this Sunday.
Mariota has thrown for 1,065 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions across five starts and two relief appearances this season. Against Miami, Mariota tossed for 213 yards, a touchdown, and an interception while carrying the pigskin four times for 49 yards.
Rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt has 498 rushing yards and four touchdowns on his season tally. Deebo Samuel leads the receiving corps with 53 catches for 470 yards and five touchdowns, while Zach Ertz has amassed 387 yards and four touchdowns.
The Commanders score 21.5 points per game (23rd in the NFL) and surrender 26.9 points in return (28th). Their defense is 27th in rushing yards (137.5 per game), 29th in passing yards (249.5), and tied for 17th in sacks (25).
Broncos vs. Commanders Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Spread Pick for Broncos vs. Commanders
- Denver Broncos -5.5 (5 units)
I don’t think the Commanders will be able to keep it close against the Broncos. Denver is not a great offensive team by any stretch of the imagination, but Washington’s defense has been pretty bad of late, and the Commanders miss some key defensive playmakers.
Also, the Commanders will struggle to cope with Denver’s mighty defensive unit. The Broncos’ secondary is one of the best in the NFL, and their pass rush has been outstanding this season. Moreover, it’s really hard to rush efficiently against this Denver team. The Broncos allow just 3.6 yards per carry (1st in the league).
Over/Under Pick for Broncos vs. Commanders
- Under 43.5 (5 units)
Frankly, I would stick with the Broncos in this game. The total looks like a tricky wager. The Broncos’ defense could easily shut down the Commanders, whose defense could easily fall apart.
Washington has allowed a whopping 82 points over its last two home games. However, they’ve played Seattle and Detroit, and Denver’s offense isn’t on the same level.
Without J.K. Dobbins, the Broncos’ ground game might continue to struggle. I will lean on their defense to continue to shine and take the under. Seven of the Broncos’ last nine games overall and five of their last six road tilts have gone under the total.
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