Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 28, 2025
Use Code WWWC Green Bay Packers (2-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys (1-2)
Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season brings Sunday Night Football from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, so we have prepared the Packers vs. Cowboys prediction along with the latest team stats and news to get you covered.
Green Bay meets Dallas for the first time since January 14, 2024, when the Packers beat the Cowboys 48-32 in the NFC Wild Card Playoffs. The Packers are undefeated in five straight meetings with the Cowboys, and Green Bay has covered the spread in each of those five games.
Let’s take a closer look at this Packers vs. Cowboys prediction, one of our NFL picks for Week 4. The kick-off is set at 8:20 PM ET, and the Packers are 6.5-point favorites with a total of 47.5 points.
The Packers hope for a bounce-back performance
The Green Bay Packers (2-1; 2-1 ATS; 0-3 O/U) started their 2025 campaign with consecutive home wins over the Detroit Lions 27-13 and the Washington Commanders 27-18. The Packers’ defense has been a dominant force through the first two weeks of the season, while their offense has been solid.
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Green Bay hit the road in Week 3 and suffered a surprising 13-10 defeat at the Cleveland Browns. The Packers were listed as 7.5-point favorites, but they failed to cope with the Browns’ sturdy defense. Green Bay blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter, finishing the game with just 230 total yards.
The Packers’ offensive line struggled in Cleveland. Green Bay rushed 31 times for 81 yards, while Jordan Love was sacked five times. Love threw for 183 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Josh Jacobs had 16 carries for a paltry 30 yards, while Rashan Gary led the defense with a couple of sacks and tackles for loss.
“That was extremely disappointing, obviously. To have an opportunity to win the game and have them flip the script late is tough to deal with," Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. "We played well enough defensively to win the game, but we didn’t do a good enough job on offense and special teams.”
Love has thrown for 663 yards, five touchdowns, and an interception so far this season. Jacobs has amassed 58 carries, 180 rushing yards, and two touchdowns, while tight end Tucker Kraft has recorded 11 catches, 169 receiving yards, and two touchdowns thus far. Kraft was terrific in Week 2, posting six receptions for 124 yards and a TD.
Right tackle Zach Tom (oblique) and left guard Aaron Banks (groin) both missed Wednesday’s practice. Left tackle Rasheed Walker (quad) was limited, and all three guys are questionable for Sunday’s clash against Dallas. Micah Parsons (back) is listed as questionable, too, but I’m pretty sure that Parsons will take on his former teammates.
The Cowboys are back on a losing track
The Dallas Cowboys (1-2; 1-2 ATS; 1-2 O/U) fought bravely in their season opener but ultimately suffered a 24-20 road loss against the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cowboys bounced back in Week 2, outlasting the New York Giants 40-37 in overtime. It was a wild game at AT&T Stadium, as we saw 41 points in the fourth quarter.
The Cowboys were on the road in Week 3, suffering a 31-14 defeat at the Chicago Bears. Dallas outgained Chicago 396-385 in total yards but lost the turnover battle 4-0. The Cowboys didn’t score a single point in the second half, and their defense had another bad day in the office.
“This can be a humbling business,” Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer said. “If you don't take care of business, you don't play well, then you're not going to win. We've got to stop giving up big plays on defense, and we’ve got to stop turning the ball over on offense. It's a bad formula.”
Dak Prescott went 31-of-40 for 251 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions last Sunday. Jake Ferguson posted 13 receptions for 82 yards, while George Pickens caught five of his nine targets for 68 yards and a touchdown. CeeDee Lamb suffered an ankle injury, and the four-time Pro Bowl will miss a few weeks.
Lamb’s injury is a huge blow for the Cowboys’ offense. He’s amassed 16 receptions and 222 receiving yards through the first two weeks of the season. Prescott has tossed for 800 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions so far this season, while the Cowboys rank 11th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (125.0).
Rookie right guard Tyler Booker (ankle) and cornerback Trevon Diggs (knee) both missed Wednesday’s practice and are questionable for Week 4.
Packers vs. Cowboys Pick
Spread Pick for Packers vs. Cowboys
- Green Bay Packers -6.5 (5 units)
Last week, the Packers’ offensive line was under huge pressure, which caused some injuries. However, the Cowboys’ defensive line is not at the same level as the Browns’, so I expect the Packers to get the job done at AT&T Stadium.
Green Bay is arguably a much better defensive team than Dallas. The Packers allow just 64.3 rushing yards (3rd in the NFL) and 168.0 passing yards per game (7th). On the other side, the Cowboys surrender 109.7 rushing yards (17th) and 288.0 passing yards per game (32nd).
The Cowboys’ pass defense has been awful thus far. Dallas ranks 28th in the league in sacks (4) and 31st in opposing passer rating (125.3). The Cowboys allow way too many big plays, so I’m not surprised by a 6.5-point spread.
Over/Under Pick for Packers vs. Cowboys
- Under 47.5 (5 units)
I like the under because of the Packers’ defense and their injury worries in the offensive line. The Cowboys might be able to make a few more stops than usual. They will struggle to run efficiently against this Green Bay team, and Dak Prescott will feel pressure in the pocket.
Hopefully, the Cowboys’ pass defense will improve. The Packers’ receiving corps is not an elite one, though Jordan Love boasts the fourth-best passer rating in the NFL. Their injury-depleted offensive line will be a key factor when it comes to the total.
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