Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts Preview, Odds, Picks and Prediction for Sunday, November 30th, 2025
A huge AFC South showdown is set for Sunday afternoon as the Indianapolis Colts (8-3) host the Houston Texans (6-5) in an AFC South game with high playoff implications.
Houston has won three straight in this rivalry, but the margins have been tight.. The Texans escaped 23–20 in Houston last October and 29–27 in Indianapolis back in Week 1 last season, but the Colts actually covered in both games.
Coming into this game, Indianapolis sits perfect 6–0 at home, while the Texans are only 2-3 on the road.
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Can the Texans keep rolling with Stroud back?
After falling to 3–5 when C.J. Stroud was knocked out of the loss to Denver on November 2nd, things looked shaky for Houston. Instead of folding, the Texans have responded with three straight wins and a renewed sense of identity. Backup Davis Mills has led the team to three straight wins, and the defense that stole the show in Thursday’s 23–19 win over Buffalo. Despite being outgained 326–261, the Texans forced three turnovers, sacked Josh Allen eight times, and protected the ball offensively, not committing any turnovers of their own. Now that C.J. Stroud has returned to full participation in practice, his presence should provide a major spark for an offense that still hasn’t hit its ceiling.
On the season, Houston ranks 21st in scoring at 22.1 points per game and sits middle-of-the-pack statistically — 16th in passing, 23rd in rushing, and 19th in total offense at 323.4 yards per game. The run game remains inconsistent, but Stroud’s return should open the field vertically and potentially open up more running lanes.
The real story, however, is the defense. Houston enters Week 13 with the No. 1 total defense in the NFL, allowing just 264.3 yards per game. They’re also second in scoring defense at 16.5 points allowed, fifth against the run, and third against the pass. Houston's defense has been disciplined, opportunistic, and relentless up front, and the main reason why the team is a sleeper in an AFC that appears to be wide open.
Key Injuries for Texans:
- RB Joe Mixon (foot/ankle) is out.
Colts are unbeaten at home
Indianapolis started the season 7–1, but the momentum has slipped a little as the Colts have dropped two of their last three, including last week’s 23–20 overtime loss to Kansas City. The final score didn’t reflect how lopsided things could have been. The Chiefs outgained Indy 494–255 in total yards, and held a massive 33–10 advantage in first downs. Daniel Jones went 19 for 31 for 181 passing yards with two touchdown passes in the loss, and Jonathan Taylor was limited to 58 yards rushing.
Daniel Jones has enjoyed a true revival season. He ranks seventh in QBR (65.9), fifth in passing yards, and has thrown 17 touchdowns to seven interceptions. Although he is reportedly dealing with a fractured fibula, he is expected to play. Jonathan Taylor, who is the leading MVP candidate among non-quarterbacks, leads the NFL with 1,197 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns.
The Colts' offense is one of the most explosive in the NFL, ranking first in scoring at 31 points per game. They’re also top-three in total offense (384 yards per game) and rushing, while sitting seventh in passing. Defensively, Indianapolis has not been as dominant as they’re 23rd in total defense and 28th against the pass, yet still rank top-10 in scoring defense thanks to their ability to generate turnovers (5th in NFL).
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Key Injuries for Colts:
- QB Daniel Jones (fibula) is expected to play. Is not listed on the injury report.
- DT DeForest Buckner (neck) is out. Is on the IR and could return in mid-December.
- QB Anthony Richardson (orbital fracture) is out indefinitely.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts Predictions
Texans vs Colts ATS Pick:
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Houston Texans +4 (5 units)
Houston has won three straight in this series, and five of the last six meetings have been decided by four points or fewer. The Texans also come in rested after their Thursday night win and get C.J. Stroud back at quarterback, which raises their offensive upside significantly.
Indianapolis is coming off a tough overtime loss in Kansas City, a game where they were dominated statistically despite losing by a field goal.
Johntahn Taylor has led the way offensively, and the Colts are 6-0 when he rushes for over 80 yards in a game this season, and only 2-3 when he doesn't. With Houston’s defense playing at an elite level, I expect Taylor to be kept under control.
With Stroud back, and the urgency to win on the Houston side, he value is on the dog.
Texans vs Colts Total Pick:
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Under 44.5 (4 units)
Houston owns the No. 1 total defense in the league and just held Buffalo to 19 points despite a yardage disadvantage. Indianapolis scores in bunches, but Houston’s defensive front is capable of limiting explosive plays and forcing the Colts into longer drives.
With C.J. Stroud returning from injury and the Texans leaning heavily on their defense during this winning streak, I expect to see some long possessions and both teams focusing on avoiding turnovers. Take the under.
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