Texans vs. Chiefs, Odds, Preview, Picks and Prediction for Sunday, December 7, 2025
Use Code WWWC Houston Texans (7-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season has arrived, bringing Sunday Night Football from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO, so we have prepared the Texans vs. Chiefs prediction to get you covered.
It’s a rematch of last season’s AFC Divisional Playoffs, where the Chiefs beat the Texans 23-14 as 9.5-point home favorites. Kansas City is undefeated in five straight meetings with Houston, and the Chiefs have covered the spread three times in that span.
Read more about this Texans vs. Chiefs prediction, and check out all our NFL picks for Week 14. Sunday Night Football kicks off at 8:20 PM ET. The Chiefs are 3.5-point home favorites with a total of 41.5 points.
The Texans eye their fifth straight W
The Houston Texans (7-5; 6-6 ATS; 3-9 O/U) are back in the playoff race. They’ve won four consecutive games, beating the Jacksonville Jaguars 36-29, the Tennessee Titans 16-13, the Buffalo Bills 23-19, and the Indianapolis Colts 20-16.
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Houston is now third in the AFC South, one game behind Jacksonville and Indianapolis. The Texans are 4-1 against divisional rivals and 6-2 in conference play. They trail the No. 7 seed in the AFC by one game.
Last Sunday, C.J. Stroud returned from a three-game absence caused by a concussion. He threw for 276 yards and an interception in a huge road victory over the Colts. Nick Chubb and Nico Collins rushed for a touchdown each, and Houston outgained Indy 364-281 in total yards.
“I feel like I knocked off some rust and am back rolling,” Stroud said. “We’re super dangerous. We lost some close games against some really good teams. If we can find a way to win some close games after Thanksgiving, we’ll put ourselves in position to do whatever we want.”
The Texans lean on their sturdy defense. No team has allowed fewer total yards than Houston in 2025. The Texans surrender just 16.5 points per game (1st in the NFL) on 91.7 rushing yards (4th) and 174.0 passing yards (also 4th). Their defense is second in 3rd down percentage (33.8%) and 18th in red zone percentage (58.6%).
On the other side of the ball, Houston tallies 21.9 points per game (21st) on 107.7 rushing yards (23rd) and 219.1 passing yards (16th). Stroud has thrown for 1,978 yards, 11 touchdowns, and six interceptions across nine games, while Nico Collins has caught 57 passes for 795 yards and four touchdowns.
Rookie RB Woody Marks has amassed 674 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns thus far, and he’s questionable for Sunday’s clash against Kansas City. Marks is one of eight players who missed Wednesday’s practice. That group included tackle Trent Brown, safety Jaylen Reed, and defensive ends Will Anderson Jr. and Denico Autry.
The Chiefs are desperate for a win
The Kansas City Chiefs (6-6; 5-7 ATS; 4-8 O/U) are in serious danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014. They are four games behind the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos and two games behind the No. 7 seed in the AFC.
The Chiefs have only won one of their previous four games overall. After consecutive road defeats against the Buffalo Bills 28-21 and the Denver Broncos 22-19, and a 23-20 overtime victory to the Indianapolis Colts at home, Kansas City suffered a 31-28 road loss against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
Patrick Mahomes threw for 261 yards and four touchdowns in Week 13, but it wasn’t enough. The Chiefs allowed 457 total yards and didn’t record a single sack. The Cowboys were moving the chains at will. Moreover, the Chiefs committed 10 penalties for a whopping 119 yards.
“Bottom line is we’re having too many penalties, and we have to make sure to take care of that,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. “No excuses with it. We’re going to clean it up.”
The Chiefs score 25.4 points per game (9th in the NFL) on 118.3 rushing yards (15th) and 256.5 passing yards (2nd). They allow 19.3 points in return (7th) on 100.9 rushing yards (9th) and 205.8 passing yards (12th). The Chiefs’ defense is 26th in 3rd down percentage (43.0%) and tied for seventh in red zone percentage (54.3%).
Mahomes has tossed for 3,238 yards, 22 touchdowns, and seven interceptions across 12 games this season. Travis Kelce has caught 59 passes for 719 yards and five touchdowns, while Kareem Hunt has amassed 629 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns.
The Chiefs have injury worries ahead of Week 14, too. Offensive linemen Jawaan Taylor and Trey Smith both missed Thursday’s practice and are questionable for Sunday’s clash against Houston.
Betting Trends for Texas vs. Chiefs:
Houston:
- 6-3 ATS last 9 games.
- 5-1 Under last 6 games.
KC:
- 1-4 ATS last 5 games.
- 6-1 Under last 7 games
- 6-1 Over last 7 vs. Houston.
Texans vs. Chiefs Pick
Spread Pick for Texans vs. Chiefs
- Houston Texans +3.5 (5 units)
This game will be a joy to watch. The stake is huge, and I expect a tight battle for all 60 minutes. The Chiefs are arguably a better offensive team in the league, but the Texans’ defense might be the best in the NFL.
I expect Will Anderson Jr. to suit up. Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter have done a great job for Houston this season, combining for 21.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss. The entire Chiefs defensive unit has amassed 22 sacks and 48 tackles for loss this season.
Kansas City could easily come out on top on the back of Patrick Mahomes’ magic, but I highly doubt the Chiefs’ chances of beating the Texans comfortably. Give me Houston and points.
Over/Under Pick for Texans vs. Chiefs
- Under 41.5 (5 units)
The Chiefs’ pass rush leaves a lot to be desired, but Kansas City is not a bad defensive team. I think they have enough weapons to slow the Texans down. Houston’s offense has struggled for most of the season, and the Texans have scored more than 23 points just once in their last five outings.
Of course, the line is a tricky one at 41.5 points. I have to take the under because of the Texans’ defense. Houston won’t beat Kansas City on the back of its offense. The Texans know they have to be at their best on the defensive side of the ball.
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