Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Picks and Prediction for Monday, January 12th, 2026
The Houston Texans take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Wildcard playoff on Monday evening, and we have you covered with the prediction. The Texans went 12-5 this season. The Steelers posted a 10-7 record and beat the Ravens last week. These squads last met in the 2023 season in a game Houston won 30-6.
Can the Texans post a 10th straight win and take this one by three points on Monday evening? Check out the Texans vs. Steelers prediction. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NFL Betting Picks!
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Houston Enters Playoffs with Winning Streak
The Houston Texans are back in the playoffs again this season. They won the AFC wildcard last year. Houston had a weak start to this season, but was the best team in the NFL in the second half. The Texans have won a stunning nine straight games. Their last defeat was back on November 2nd against the Broncos. They beat the Bills in the current winning streak.
Houston enjoyed a stellar December, which included wins against the Chiefs and Chargers. The Texans wrapped the season with a 38-30 home win against the Colts to cover the five-point spread.
C.J. Stroud is having another strong season. The 24-year-old QB hasn’t posted mammoth numbers, surpassing 250 passing yards in just one game, but has been efficient. Stroud has recorded 3041 passing yards and a 19:8 TD to INT ratio. The Houston offense does not run a ton. Woody Marks sees about 10-20 rushes per game. The 25-year-old running back did not reach 100 yards in a game. Marks has amassed 703 rushing yards on the season. Nick Chubb has 506 rushing yards.
The receiving group is a strength led by Nico Collins. The 26-year-old WR is targeted more than any other receiver. He has netted 1017 receiving yards. The Houston offense posted 339 yards in the meeting against the Colts to end the season.
The Texans’ defense is superb. The unit ranks top five in most categories and was the reason they have won nine in a row. They have conceded 19 or fewer points in six of their past eight games. They conceded 354 yards against the Colts and are keeping opponents to 277 yards per game. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is having a monster season. The veteran has made a combined 103 tackles. Texans' top CB Derek Stingley Jr. is questionable. The pass defense is marked 6th while the rush defense stands fifth.
Houston is averaging 23.8 points on the year, ranking them 18th. The Texans are keeping opponents to 17.4 points, placing them second in the entire NFL.
Pittsburgh Secures Division with 10 Wins
The Pittsburgh Steelers are seeking their first playoff wins since 2016. Pittsburgh had a bit of a streaky season and played its best in December, winning four of its past five games. Pittsburgh dropped a home meeting against the Bills to conclude November and only dropped one game the rest of the way. The Steelers beat the Ravens on the road in early December.
The success continued in a road win against Detroit last month. They were hit with a surprising road defeat by the Browns on December 28th. Pittsburgh had a clash against the Ravens last week to decide the division winner. Pittsburgh came through with a narrow 26-24 home win in a game that had the Steelers marked as 4.5-point dogs. The Steelers have covered the spread in four of their past five games.
Aaron Rodgers remains a huge threat under center. The future Hall of Fame QB has posted 235 or more yards in six games this season. He has not thrown a pick since November 9th. Rodgers has posted 3322 passing yards and a 24:7 TD to INT ratio on the season.
The running game is solid. Jaylen Warren has netted 50 or more yards in six of his past nine games. The 27-year-old RB has managed 958 rushing yards on the season. Warren has an illness, but should be ready to play in this one. The receiving group is not dominant but has depth. DK Metcalf was suspended for the last two games of the season and is back. The veteran WR has reported 850 receiving yards on the season. Pat Friermuth is a steady tight end with 486 yards.
The Steelers' defense is decent but not top 10. They have plenty of big names, including Jalen Ramsey. The star corner has broken up eight passes. The Steelers' defense will give up yards. They conceded 390 yards in the win against Baltimore last week. They are squandering an average of 356 yards per game. The pass defense is shaky, ranking 29th, while the rush defense is a strength, coming in at 13th.
Pittsburgh is scoring an average of 23.4 points on the season, rating them 15th. The Steelers are conceding an average of 22.8 points, placing them 17th in the NFL.
Texans vs. Steelers Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,494.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,859.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +1,788.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,428.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,400.00 |
Spread Pick for Texans vs. Steelers
- Houston Texans -3 (5 units)
The Houston Texans are the hottest team in the entire NFL. They have won nine straight games. The Texans have been just as sharp on the road, where they stand at 5-1 in their past six games. The Pittsburgh Steelers needed to beat the Ravens last week to secure a playoff spot with a 10-7 record. The Steelers do not stand out in any area. Their offense is ranked 15th, and the scoring defense is 17th.
Furthermore, the Houston passing offense will thrive under Stroud. The Steelers' pass defense is shaky. They are conceding an average of 243 passing yards per game, rating them down at 29th in the NFL. Also, the Pittsburgh offense has a daunting task against a stingy defense. Pittsburgh leans on its passing offense with Rodgers. This is good news for the Texans, who have an elite secondary with a pass defense that stands sixth in the NFL. This is a strong defense that has squandered the fewest yards in the NFL. Go with the Texans to win this bout on the road.
Over/Under Pick for Texans vs. Steelers
- Over 39 (5 units)
I expect plenty of scoring in this one. This is the lowest number of any of the playoff games on the board. Houston’s top strength is the passing offense against a pass defense that stands near the bottom of the NFL. The Steelers have squandered 22 or more points in six of their past nine games.
In addition, the Pittsburgh offense is enjoying its best stretch of the season. They have averaged 23 points in their past five games and have scored 26 or more points in four of their past five games, including 26 points in the big win against the Ravens last week. The over is 4-2 in the Texans' past six games against an AFC North opponent.
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