Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday August 13 2026

Tonight’s Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots picks begin with one of the clearest quarterback plans on Thursday’s preseason slate. Indianapolis will start Anthony Richardson Sr. and give him the entire first half, while regular-season starter Daniel Jones will not play. Riley Leonard is expected to handle the second half. New England is not expected to lean heavily on its established starters, putting much of the offensive evaluation on Tommy DeVito and rookie Behren Morton. The Colts are a small road favorite at Gillette Stadium, but the total offers the cleaner angle.

Best Available Odds for Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots

• Moneyline: Indianapolis -158 / New England +132
• Spread: Indianapolis -2.5 (-115) / New England +2.5 (-105)
• Total: Over 37.5 (-115) / Under 37.5 (-105)

Game Info

• Date: Thursday, August 13, 2026
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
• Current spread: Indianapolis -2.5
• Current total: 37.5
• Conditions: Mild evening weather with light wind

Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots Preview

Richardson is the most important player in this handicap because his workload is unusually specific for a preseason opener. Indianapolis wants a long evaluation window, not a one-series cameo. He is competing for the backup job behind Jones, and a full half gives the Colts a chance to see how he handles complete drives, third downs, red-zone decisions and changing field position. Richardson’s athleticism raises the offensive ceiling, but the context still differs from a regular-season start because many established offensive pieces will either sit or rotate.

That distinction matters for the total. A quarterback can be talented enough to create explosive plays while still operating with second- and third-team linemen and receivers. Richardson’s mobility can rescue broken plays, but it can also encourage Indianapolis to keep the offense simple. The Colts do not need to expose a large portion of the regular-season playbook in August, especially after holding joint practices with New England earlier in the week.

Leonard taking the second half gives Indianapolis a coherent plan but not necessarily a high-scoring one. He has NFL preseason experience and can move the offense, yet the second half will be dominated by roster evaluation. Coaches are looking for command and ball security as much as points. That often means fewer aggressive fourth-down decisions and fewer designed shots than bettors would expect in a meaningful game.

New England’s quarterback depth is also competent. Drake Maye will not play in the opener, leaving established backup Tommy DeVito and developmental rookie Behren Morton to carry the quarterback work. Both DeVito and Morton have drawn positive reviews during camp. DeVito’s experience makes New England less likely to completely stall, while Morton’s quick-game ability can keep drives alive. Neither fact requires the game to turn into a shootout.

The Patriots’ personnel plan is the bigger constraint. New England is expected to limit the number of regular starters on the field, which means offensive line combinations and receiver groups will change throughout the game. In a preseason opener, those transitions matter. A reserve quarterback may make the correct read and still lose a drive because a protection adjustment is missed or a receiver runs a route at the wrong depth.

Gillette Stadium has also undergone a late surface change after the post-World Cup turf installation failed league testing protocols. A replacement synthetic surface was installed for the preseason opener. There is no strong reason to assume that produces lower scoring, so it should not be exaggerated as a betting factor. The weather is similarly neutral, with mild temperatures and light wind. The Under case rests primarily on personnel and the number.

Indianapolis won the most recent regular-season meeting 25-24 in Foxborough in December 2024. That result belongs to a different quarterback era for both teams and should carry little weight tonight. Current preseason usage tells us far more than a two-year-old head-to-head score.

Matchup Breakdown

Richardson against New England’s reserve-heavy defense is the matchup most likely to threaten the Under. His size and running ability can turn broken plays into first downs, and the Colts have committed enough snaps to let him develop rhythm. The Patriots must keep contain and avoid giving Indianapolis cheap explosive plays on scrambles. If New England forces Richardson to execute long drives through the air, the game becomes much more favorable to a lower total.

On the other side, DeVito gives the Patriots a quarterback who has started NFL games and understands how to manage pressure. Morton offers a different developmental profile, with quick processing and a compact release. The concern for New England is not purely quarterback talent. It is whether reserve pass protectors and receivers can stay synchronized long enough to sustain drives once the first group is off the field.

The joint-practice context also matters. These teams spent live practice periods against one another this week, reducing the mystery around personnel while also lowering the need to show much schematically in the preseason game. Coaches have already received useful evaluation reps. Thursday becomes more about operation, tackling, special teams and individual roster battles than unveiling new offensive ideas.

The market has moved toward Indianapolis, turning the Colts into a road favorite around -2.5 after earlier prices were closer to pick’em or had New England favored. The total has stayed near the high 30s, with 37.5 still widely relevant. That number is high enough to require sustained competence from both reserve offenses, not just a few good Richardson drives.

Game Thesis: Richardson’s full-half assignment gives Indianapolis the best single offensive weapon in the game, but the Colts are still evaluating a backup quarterback with rotating personnel. New England should shift much of its offense to DeVito and Morton while limiting regular starters. With both teams prioritizing evaluation and protecting the regular-season playbook, the game should feature enough stalled drives to keep the combined score below the current total.

Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots Best Bet - Total: Under 37.5 (-105)

Under 37.5 is the preferred wager because the market is asking these reserve-heavy offenses to reach at least the upper 30s despite limited regular-season personnel. Richardson is capable of creating points, but the Under does not require him to fail. Indianapolis can score 17 to 20 points and still leave plenty of room if New England’s rotating offense struggles to finish drives.

The key threshold is 37.5. That hook protects an Under bettor from a 20-17 final, which is a very plausible preseason score. I would be much less interested at 36.5 because the same game lands Over. The price at -105 is also favorable enough that there is no reason to chase a worse number if the total drops before kickoff.

The primary risk is Richardson playing efficiently for two quarters and creating a multi-score Indianapolis lead before halftime. Another danger is short-field scoring caused by turnovers from young quarterbacks. Still, the expected second-half environment should be slow enough to offset a reasonable first half, especially if New England uses most of the night to evaluate DeVito, Morton and the bottom of the offensive depth chart.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 20, New England Patriots 16