Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos Picks and Prediction for Sunday, December 21, 2025
Use Code WWWC Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) vs. Denver Broncos (12-2)
Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season is here, bringing some very interesting matchups on Sunday, December 21, including the AFC showdown at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, so we’ve prepared the Jaguars vs. Broncos prediction to get you covered.
Jacksonville meets Denver for the first time since 2022, when the Broncos beat the Jaguars 21-17 as 1-point road underdogs. Denver aims for its third straight victory over Jacksonville. The Broncos are 3-point home favorites with a total of 46.5 points.
The kick-off at Empower Field at Mile High is set at 4:05 PM ET, so let’s take a closer look at this Jaguars vs. Broncos prediction, one of our NFL picks for Week 16.
The Jaguars eye their sixth straight W
The Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4; 9-5 ATS; 8-6 O/U) have gone 5-0 SU and ATS since a 36-29 defeat at the Houston Texans in Week 10. During that stretch, the Jags have beaten the Los Angeles Chargers 35-6, the Arizona Cardinals 27-24 in overtime, the Tennessee Titans 25-3, the Indianapolis Colts 36-19, and the New York Jets 48-20.
Get Free $30 Credit for Premium Picks + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
Last Sunday, the Jaguars routed the Jets in front of the home fans, and Trevor Lawrence led the charge, throwing for 330 yards and five touchdowns. Lawrence scored once on his own, while Travis Etienne rushed 12 times for 32 yards and caught three passes for 73 yards and three touchdowns.
“I don't think I've ever seen Trev like this, and we won a national championship together," said Etienne, who played alongside Lawrence at Clemson. “He's on fire. You've seen it. The growth that I've seen from him is just unbelievable.”
Lawrence has thrown for nine touchdowns and zero interceptions over the last three weeks. He’s tossed for 3,210 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions this season, and the Jaguars rank eighth in the NFL in scoring offense (26.9 points per game).
Etienne has done a great job this season, mustering 1,203 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns on 242 touches. Wideouts Brian Thomas and Parker Washington have accounted for 39 receptions each while combining for 1,101 receiving yards and six touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, the Jags allow 20.9 points per game (tied for 10th in the NFL) on 86.3 rushing yards (1st) and 222.2 passing yards (20th). They rank sixth in the league in opposing passer rating (81.4), 16th in red-zone defense (58.5%), and 26th in 3rd down defense (41.9%).
The Broncos continue to roll
The Denver Broncos (12-2; 6-8 ATS; 6-8 O/U) have won 11 straight games since Week 3. They were on a bye in Week 12, and since then, the red-hot Broncos have beaten the Washington Commanders 27-26 in overtime, the Las Vegas Raiders 24-17, and the Green Bay Packers 34-26.
Last Sunday, the Broncos beat the Packers as 1.5-point home underdogs. Denver outgained Green Bay 391-362 in total yards and won the turnover battle 2-1. The Broncos went 4-for-4 in the red zone, and Bo Nix threw for 302 yards and four touchdowns.
“Yes, it’s nice to clinch a playoff berth,” Denver head coach Sean Payton said. “Goal one is to try to win your division. Goal two is to try to get the best seed, and then goal three is to try to win a world championship.”
Nix has tossed for 3,256 yards, 23 touchdowns, and nine interceptions this season. Wideouts Troy Franklin and Courtland Sutton have combined for 1,512 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, while rookie running back RJ Harvey has amassed 666 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns.
The Broncos cannot count on their starting running back J.K. Dobbins, who’s on the IR. Dobbins has recorded 772 rushing yards and four touchdowns across 10 games this season, and his absence is a huge blow for the Broncos’ ground game.
Denver scores 24.4 points per game (12th in the NFL) and allows 18.6 points in return (tied for 3rd). The Broncos’ defense ranks second in the league in rushing yards (90.9 per game), 11th in passing yards (196.9), first in both red-zone conversion (38.5%), and 3rd down conversion (31.9%).
Jaguars vs. Broncos Pick
Spread Pick for Jaguars vs. Broncos
- Denver Broncos -3.0 (5 units)
Both teams should struggle to run the ball. I mentioned how good these two run defenses have been this season. The Broncos will put a lot of pressure on Trevor Lawrence, and I’m backing Denver to extend its winning streak and cover the spread.
Denver leads the NFL in sacks. The Broncos have amassed 58 sacks thus far, 10 more than the second-place Atlanta Falcons. Denver has recorded a whopping 135 quarterback hits (also 1st in the league), so Lawrence and the Jags’ offensive line will be properly tested in this game.
On the other side, Jacksonville is 25th in sacks (28), but the Jaguars have accounted for 26 takeaways (2nd), including 18 interceptions (also 2nd). They certainly have weapons to keep it close, but I just can’t step in front of the red-hot Broncos.
Over/Under Pick for Jaguars vs. Broncos
- Under 46.5 (5 units)
The Broncos just dropped 34 points on the Packers, but I don’t think they will be able to hit a 30-point mark in this game. The Jaguars haven’t allowed more than 24 points in five straight outings.
Jacksonville won’t replicate that 48-point outburst from the previous week for sure, so I would take the under on the total in this matchup. Both Jacksonville and Denver will throw the ball a lot, but it doesn’t mean they will move the chains frequently. They will struggle to rush efficiently, and the Broncos’ defensive line will be all over Trevor Lawrence.
Betting on the NFL?
- Be sure to look our our list of the best NFL online sportsbooks
- Grow your bankroll by claiming one of our favorite NFL sportsbook promo codes
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
