Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 21, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Houston Texans (0-2, T-3rd AFC South) visit Jacksonville and EverBank Stadium on Sunday for a division showdown with AFC South rival the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1, 2nd AFC South). Houston is off to a poor start with two straight losses, falling to the Los Angeles Rams 14-9 in the opening game, followed by a 20-19 loss to Tampa Bay this past weekend. Jacksonville has split its first two games, opening with a 26-10 win over Carolina, followed by a 31-27 loss to Cincinnati. Houston has several players injured, including Denico Autry, Joe Mixon, Jaylen Reed, and Justin Watson, while eight others are questionable. Jacksonville has Jalen McLeod, Caleb Ranswa, Joshua Cephus, and Cooper Hodges out on IR, with six others questionable. Make sure to read this in-depth Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction. Dominate Sunday with our NFL picks for the Houston Texans at the Jacksonville Jaguars prediction—your winning playbook starts here.
Houston’s poor start is due to a lack of offense
The Houston Texans are last in the NFL in scoring at 14.0 points per game. Their lack of offense is the main reason they've lost two games by a combined six points. The Texans average 99.0 yards rushing and 166.5 yards passing for 265.5 yards of total offense per game, which is 28th. The Houston defense holds opponents to 17.0 points per game, which is 9th. The Texans allow an average of 120.5 yards rushing and 207.5 yards passing for 328.0 yards per game, which is 20th.
In two games, Houston quarterback CJ Stroud has just 395 yards passing with one touchdown and one interception. Protection has not been the best, as Stroud has been sacked six times. New running back Nick Chubb has 103 yards rushing to lead Houston with an average of 4.1 yards per carry. Chubb has scored one touchdown. Nico Collins leads all receivers for Houston with 77 yards and one touchdown reception. The leading tackler for the Texans is linebacker Henry To’oTo’o with 17. Two players have two sacks each to lead Houston, while the Texans have made 7.0 QB sacks overall but have not intercepted a pass.
CB Kamari Lassiter (knee) and CB Jaylin Smith are questionable.
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Jacksonville’s offense looks strong, and its defense is holding up
Jacksonville's offense has produced an average of 26.5 points per game, which is 7th. The Jaguars top the NFL in rushing, averaging 169.5 yards per game, and are 14th in passing at 219.5 yards per game. Jacksonville ranks 4th in total offense at 389.0 yards per game. The Jaguars' defense allows an average of 20.5 points per game, which is 14th, and 302.5 yards per game, which is 11th. The Jaguars have a tough run defense, holding opponents to 80.5 yards per game, while the defense against the pass allows 222.0 yards per game, which is 19th.
Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence has passed for 449 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. Pass protection has been excellent as Lawrence has been sacked just once. Travis Etienne Jr is off to a strong start running the ball, with 214 yards and an average of 7.1 yards per carry. Jacksonville's averaging 5.7 yards per carry as a team. Dyami Brown is Jacksonville's leading receiver with 109 yards and one touchdown reception. They do need to get second-year WR Brian Thomas going. He has just five catches for 60 yards in two games after producing 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie last season.
Jacksonville's defense is led by linebacker Foyesade Oluokun, who has 17 tackles, one quarterback sack, and one interception. As a team, Jacksonville has made four sacks and intercepted five passes.
WR Brian Thomas Jr. (wrist), CB Jarrian Jones (back) and OG Ezra Cleveland are questionable.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Pick
Spread Pick for Jaguars vs. Texans
- Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 (5 units)
The Houston Texans are out of sync offensively, averaging just 14 points per game, and will run into a Jacksonville defense that, despite allowing 20.5 points per game, is 7th in rushing yards allowed and 11th in total yards allowed. Houston’s pass protection has been poor, allowing six sacks through two games. Jacksonville's offense is off to a strong start, averaging 26.5 points per game and leads the NFL in rushing, averaging 169.5 yards per game, which plays to the weakness of Houston's defense, which allows 120.5 yards per game rushing, which is 22nd. Jacksonville's offensive line has given quarterback Trevor Lawrence plenty of protection, allowing just one sack in two games, and that will give the talented signal caller plenty of time in the pocket to pick apart the Houston secondary after establishing a running game with Travis Etienne Jr.
Over/Under Pick for Jaguars vs. Texans
- Under 45 (4 units)
As mentioned previously, Houston is struggling on offense, averaging just 14 points per game, and the Texans’ defense allows only 17 points per game. Houston's defense is more than capable of holding teams below their average. The total has finished under in both of Houston's first two games and in one of Jacksonville's first two games. Jacksonville will take away Houston's anemic running game and force the Texans to pass, which they have not been successful with through two games. The Jaguars on offense will use their strong running attack that averages 169.5 yards per game to eat up the clock on long, sustained drives, creating fewer possessions and fewer scoring opportunities for both teams.
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