Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans, Preview, Odds, Picks and Prediction for Sunday, November 9, 2025
Use Code WWWC Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) vs. Houston Texans (3-5)
Week 10 of the 2025 NFL season has arrived, and in this preview, we are breaking down the AFC South showdown from NRG Stadium in Houston, TX, to get you the Jaguars vs. Texans prediction for Sunday afternoon.
Jacksonville and Houston lock horns for the second time this season. Back in Week 3, the Jaguars beat the Texans 17-10 as 1.5-point home favorites, and the game flew under the 43-point total. The Texans are 1-point home favorites this time around, while the total sits at 37.5 points.
Read more about this Jaguars vs. Texans prediction, and check out all our NFL picks for Week 10. The kick-off at NRG Stadium is set at 1:00 PM ET.
The Jaguars survived their trip to Las Vegas
The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3; 4-4 ATS; 4-4 O/U) snapped their two-game skid last Sunday. After consecutive defeats against the Seattle Seahawks 20-12 at home and the Los Angeles Rams 35-7 in London, UK, the Jags outlasted the Las Vegas Raiders 30-29 in overtime, playing as 1.5-point road favorites.
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Trevor Lawrence scored two rushing touchdowns against the Raiders while battling an illness. He threw for 220 yards and an interception, and Parker Washington had eight receptions for 90 yards. The Jaguars struggled to defend, allowing four TD passes to Geno Smith, but they managed to deny the Raiders a winning 2-point conversion in overtime.
“I'm really proud of Trevor [Lawrence],” Jaguars head coach Liam Coen said. “He was throwing up all night, all morning, and was pale as a ghost throughout the whole game. I'm very proud of the way he responded, the way that he played, especially later on, when the game really was on the line.”
Jacksonville needs more from its offense, as the Jags score 22.0 points per game (21st in the NFL). They tally 123.6 rushing yards per game (11th), while Lawrence has thrown for 1,840 yards, nine touchdowns, and six interceptions this season.
Rookie WR/CB Travis Hunter is on the IR, while wideout Brian Thomas (ankle/shoulder) didn’t practice on Wednesday and is questionable for Sunday’s clash against Houston. Lawrence will have to lean on Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers, who’ll make his Jags debut in Week 10.
The Jaguars acquired Meyers from Las Vegas at the trade deadline. Meyers has recorded 33 catches for 352 yards this season, but he hasn’t found the end zone yet.
The Texans are in trouble
The Houston Texans (3-5; 3-5 ATS; 2-6 O/U) are in real danger of missing the playoffs. Since a bye in Week 6, the Texans have gone 1-2 SU and ATS, sandwiching a 26-15 victory to the San Francisco 49ers with a couple of losses at the Seattle Seahawks 27-19 and to the Denver Broncos 18-15.
Moreover, C.J. Stroud suffered a concussion last Sunday and will miss the upcoming clash against Jacksonville. He went 6-of-10 for 79 yards before Davis Mills took over in that narrow loss against the Broncos. Mills completed 17 of his 30 passing attempts, throwing for 137 yards in his second relief appearance this season.
The Texans battled bravely against the Broncos. Houston won the turnover battle 2-0, but the Texans went 3-for-17 on 3rd down and 0-for-3 in the red zone. Ka’imi Fairbairn made five of his six field-goal attempts, missing from 51 on the Texans’ first drive.
“Disappointed as a team that we didn’t finish the game,” Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans said. “Our defense did a good job of getting stops multiple times. We just sputtered there offensively. We just lacked the ability to sustain drives there in the second half. It wasn’t good enough.”
Houston’s offense has struggled for most of the season. The Texans score just 21.0 points per game (tied for 24th in the NFL) on 212.3 passing yards (18th) and 108.9 rushing yards (21st). They’ve only scored three rushing touchdowns thus far while posting the worst red-zone percentage in the NFL (36.4%).
The Texans have serious injury worries ahead of Week 10. Eight guys missed Wednesday’s practice, including Ka’imi Fairbairn (quad), Nick Chubb (foot), Denico Autry (knee), and Will Anderson Jr. (quad).
Jaguars vs. Texans Pick
Spread Pick for Jaguars vs. Texans
- Jacksonville Jaguars +1.0 (5 units)
The Texans’ defense is one of the best in the league. Houston allows just 15.1 points per game (1st in the NFL) on 89.9 rushing yards (6th) and 177.5 passing yards (4th). No team has allowed fewer red-zone attempts than Houston (18).
However, the Texans’ offense will continue to struggle with Davis Mills under center. Last week, the Texans punted on six consecutive drives with Mills on the field. Hereof, I’m going with the Jaguars, who have to take advantage of C.J. Stroud’s absence.
The Jaguars are not a bad defensive team. They allow 23.0 points per game (tied for 17th) on 86.9 rushing yards (3rd) and 249.3 passing yards (27th). The Texans will struggle to rush efficiently in this game, and I don’t trust their passing offense to get the job done.
Over/Under Pick for Jaguars vs. Texans
- Under 37.5 (5 units)
Betting on the under looks like a way to go in this matchup. As I noted, the Texans’ defense has been outstanding this season, while their offense has been pretty bad. With C.J. Stroud on the shelf, the Texans will have a tall task to move the chains frequently against the Jaguars.
In their first meeting of the season, we saw just 27 points on the scoreboard. The Jags outgained the Texans 291-271 in total yards and won the turnover battle 3-1, as Stroud threw two interceptions. Both teams went 4-for-15 on 3rd down, and I expect more of the same when the Texans host the Jaguars.
The under has hit in six of the previous seven encounters between Jacksonville and Houston.
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