Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys Picks and Prediction for Thursday, November 27th, 2025
The Kansas City Chiefs (6-5, 5-6 ATS, 3-8 O/U) meet the Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1, 6-5 ATS, 7-4 O/U) in an inter-conference showdown on Thanksgiving, and we have everything you need to know and the prediction. The Chiefs managed an OT win against the Colts last week. The Cowboys earned a home win against the Eagles in their previous action. These squads last met in 2021 in a game the Chiefs won.
Can the Chiefs post a second straight win on Thursday afternoon? Check out the Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NFL Betting Picks!
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Chiefs Eye Second Straight Win
The Kansas City Chiefs are targeting a second straight win. Kansas City is in third place in the AFC West, which many are not used to seeing. They are nearly out of contention in the division, considering they stand three games out of first place. They are one game out of a wildcard spot. The Chiefs lost a road meeting against the Bills to begin November and sustained a narrow 22-19 road defeat against the Broncos two weeks ago. Next, the Chiefs answered with a 23-20 overtime home win against the Colts last week, but did not cover the five-point spread. The Chiefs have covered the spread in two of their past five games.
Patrick Mahomes has been steady, recording 250 or more yards in all but two games. He amassed 352 yards in the win last week and has 2977 passing yards and an 18:7 TD to INT ratio on the season. Isaiah Pacheco has not played since October and is now cleared to play. Pacheco has 329 rushing yards. Kareem Hunt has stepped up in Pacheco’s absence. The 30-year-old RB contributed with 104 yards last week and has netted 457 rushing yards on the season.
Travis Kelce is targeted more than any other receiver on the team. The veteran tight end has posted 60 or more yards in six games this season. Kelce leads the squad with 674 yards. Hollywood Brown has only managed 50 receiving yards in his past two games. The 28-year-old has 439 yards on the year. The K.C. offense registered just under 500 total yards in the win last week. They are averaging 376 yards per game.
The Chiefs' defense is among the best in the NFL. They have conceded 22 or fewer points in five of their past six games. The group kept the Colts to only 255 total yards last week, bringing their season average to 293 yards per game. Chamorro Conner has made 76 tackles. The pass defense is ranked 11th while the rush defense is ninth.
Kansas City is averaging 25.2 points on the season, ranking them ninth. The Chiefs are keeping opponents to 18.3 points, placing them fifth in the NFL.
Key Injury Report for Chiefs:
- WR Xavier Worthy (ankle) is questionable. Has 31 catches for 340 yards.
- WR Rashee Rice (hamstring) is questionable. Was limited in practice on Monday. Has 34 catches for 394 yards, 3 TDs.
- G Trey Smith (ankle) is doubtful.
- LB Leo Chenal (22 tackles) is questionable.
Dallas Beats Eagles in Second Straight Win
The Dallas Cowboys are seeking their third straight win. Dallas appeared out of playoff contention after an ugly home loss against the Cardinals to begin this month, but has rebounded with huge wins. Dallas posted a dominating road win against the Raiders, followed by a huge 24-21 home win against the Eagles on Sunday in a clash that had the Cowboys marked as three-point dogs. They were down 21-0 to start the game in the comeback win. Dallas is now 1.5 games out of a wildcard spot. They have covered the spread in three of their past five games.
Dak Prescott is having an outstanding season. The 32-year-old QB has reached 250 passing yards in three of his past five games. Prescott posted 354 yards last week and has delivered 2941 passing yards and a 23:7 TD to INT ratio. Dallas does not run a whole lot. Javonte Williams has been a beast, recording 76 or more rushing yards in all but three games. Williams has netted 896 rushing yards.
George Pickens is having the best season of his career. The 24-year-old WR has contributed with 100+ yards in three of his past six games, including 146 yards last week. Pickens is up to 1054 receiving yards. CeedDee Lamb is also a threat, reporting 632 yards. The Dallas offense amassed 473 total yards against the Eagles last week. They are up to an average of 387 yards per game.
The Cowboys' defense is a weakness, but it has been displaying improvement in the past few games. The unit contained a potent Philadelphia offense in the second half last week and gave up 339 total yards. The Cowboys are conceding an average of 377 yards per game. Safety Kenneth Murray Jr. leads the team with 68 tackles. The pass defense is among the worst, ranking 30th, while the rush defense stands 22nd.
Dallas is posting an average of 29.1 points on the year, rating them fifth. The Cowboys are squandering an average of 28.5 points, pegging them 30th in the NFL.
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Key Injuries for Cowboys:
- S Malik Hooker (toe/tjhigh) is questionable.
- WR George Pickens (knee/calf) is questonable. Has 67 catches for 1,054 yds, 8 TDs.
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Pick
Spread Pick for Chiefs vs. Cowboys
- Kansas City Chiefs -3 (5 units)
The Kansas City Chiefs are confident after a win against a potent Colts team last week. They stand out of a playoff spot, and this veteran group does not want to miss the playoffs. The Chiefs have no margin for error and need this one. The Dallas Cowboys have won two in a row, but one of the wins was against the Raiders.
Furthermore, the Kansas City offense is going to thrive against a shaky defense. Mahomes and KC are averaging 257 passing yards, ranking them 2nd in the NFL. Mahomes will expose a weak secondary. The Cowboys are squandering an average of 252 passing yards per game, pegging them 30th in the NFL. Also, the Chiefs have the defense to contain this potent offense. Dallas will opt for the pass in 60% of its plays. The Chiefs have a stingy pass defense that is keeping opponents to just 195 passing yards per game.
Over/Under Pick for Chiefs vs. Cowboys
- Over 52 (5 units)
I expect a ton of scoring. Kansas City has averaged 22.5 points on the road. This is an offense that recorded nearly 500 yards against a good Colts defense last week. The Cowboys' defense is a weakness. They are pegged 29th in yards conceded and have squandered an average of 29 points in their five home games this season.
In addition, containing Prescott and the offense is a daunting task. Dallas is averaging 266 passing yards per game. The Chiefs gave up 31 points to the Jags and 28 to the Bills, all within their past three road games. Also, these squads have quick offenses. KC is first in the entire NFL in offensive plays per game, while Dallas is fifth. The over is a convincing 6-2 in the Cowboys' past eight games.
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