Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos, Preview, Odds, Picks and Prediction for Sunday, November 16th, 2025
Use Code WWWC On a mild November day in Denver, get ready for this Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction. The Denver Broncos (8-2) are hosting the Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) on Sunday in an AFC West showdown. Last season, these teams split the season series outright, but the Broncos have covered the spread in six of the last seven head-to-head meetings. If you need more winners in the NFL and other Free NFL Picks, check out Winners and Whiners.
Chiefs still outside of a playoff spot
The Kansas City Chiefs are currently the betting favorite to win the AFC. Oddly enough, if the season ended today, the Chiefs would not be in the playoffs. That makes this matchup even more important. Kansas City has struggled away from Arrowhead, going one and three on the road. The Chiefs lost their last game 28-21 to the Buffalo Bills, but now return from a bye week.
Patrick Mahomes is quietly second in the NFL with a 74.6 QBR. He has thrown 17 touchdown passes with five interceptions and is completing 64.6 percent of his passes. Mahomes is also third on the team with 285 rushing yards and second with four rushing touchdowns. Isaiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt have contributed to the run game, and TE Travis Kelce leads the team with 540 receiving yards and ranks second with three receiving touchdowns.
As a team, the Chiefs rank eighth in total yards (370.1), sixth in passing yards (248.9), and 13th in rushing yards (121.2). They are ninth in scoring at 26.1 points per game. Defensively, Kansas City ranks fourth in scoring defense, allowing 17.7 points per game. They are sixth in total yards allowed (291.8), seventh in passing yards allowed (187.2), and 12th in rushing yards allowed (104.6).
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Key Injury Report for Chiefs:
- RB Isaiah Pacheco (knee) is out.
Broncos keep on winning
The Denver Broncos find themselves in first place in the AFC West. If the season ended today, they would be the third seed in the AFC playoffs behind the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts.
Denver faces a huge test with the Kansas City Chiefs coming in, but the Broncos are 5-0 straight up at home and enter as an underdog. They are riding a seven-game winning streak, although four of their last five victories have been decided by three points or less, with those narrow wins coming against the New York Jets, New York Giants, Houston Texans, and Las Vegas Raiders. That is not exactly elite competition.
Defense has carried the Broncos. They rank third in total yards allowed (270.7), points allowed (17.3 ppg), and rushing yards allowed (91.2), to go along with being sixth in passing yards given up (179.5). The offense has not been dominant but has done enough to win, ranking 17th in scoring (23.5 ppg), 13th in total yards (334.6), 9th in rushing (128.6), and 18th in passing (206). Quarterback Bo Nix ranks 18th in the NFL with a 54.7 QBR, completing just under 61 percent of his passes with 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions. J.K. Dobbins leads the ground game with five yards per carry and 772 rushing yards, but is out with an injury. Courtland Sutton has a team-best 590 receiving yards and four touchdowns, and Troy Franklin follows with 425 yards and five scores.
Key Injury Report for Denver:
- CB Pat Surtain II (pectoral) is out.
- LB Alex Singleton (illness) is out
- RB JK Dobbins (foot) is out.
- LB Karene Reid (hamstring) was placed on the IR.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Predictions
ATS Spread pick for Chiefs vs. Broncos
- Denver Broncos +4 (4 units)
I will admit I was not high on the Denver Broncos coming into this season despite their expectations, and it has been hard for me to get fully on board. With that being said, the Broncos continue to win, even though Bo Nix has not looked overly impressive. Denver is still undefeated at home, while the Chiefs have struggled away from Arrowhead. I understand that Andy Reid has been tremendous off bye weeks, but getting points with an undefeated home team is hard to pass up, especially when the Broncos have covered six of the last seven meetings against Kansas City.
This is a crucial situation for the Chiefs, and a game they really need to win, but with this number, the Broncos can cover even if they lose. I have to take the home dog.
Total Pick for Chiefs vs. Broncos
- Under 45 (4 units)
Both defenses have been outstanding. This might feel like a must-win for Kansas City, but Denver wants this one just as much, and both defenses have been outstanding.
Coming off the bye, I do expect Kansas City to have a strong game plan to neutralize Bo Nix and a Denver offense that has been inconsistent.
I do not expect a shootout with two strong defenses and a Chiefs offense that, while still good, has not been as explosive as in past years. I expect a physical game that falls under the total.
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